71% Of Likely Voters are in Favor Of Prop. 36

On the ballot this year in California is Proposition 36, which will make multiple changes to California drug and theft laws, including making significant changes to Proposition 47. Prop. 47, which passed by voters in 2014, not only changed California law so that most theft and drug felonies are only charged as misdemeanors, but it also allowed convicted felons for to reclassify those convictions to misdemeanors.

The $950 felony/misdemeanor threshold for thefts was first brought up through AB 2372 in 2010. Prop. 47 helped solidify that. For some retailers, it even got to the point that shoplifters began calculating goods with calculators and making sure they didn’t go above $950 worth of stolen goods.

With crime going up as a result of Prop. 47, many began working to craft a new proposition to help reign in those laws. The result was Prop. 36, which qualified for the November 2024 ballot to be voted on exactly one decade to the day that Prop 47 was passed. Under Prop. 36, punishments for many drug and theft crimes will be increased once again, including making some current misdemeanor thefts back into felonies, lengthening felony sentences, and requiring that felony sentences be served in prison. In addition, it will also create a new treatment-focused court process for some drug possession crimes, and require that some felonies be served in prison.

Out of the gate, Prop. 36 proved to be very popular. Many retail and voter groups signed on to the initiative. Unusually, Prop. 36 also didn’t have the normal party and geography divides, with even typically liberal Los Angeles and San Francisco, both of which have seen rises in crime and “smash-and-grab” robberies in recent years, providing support.

However, this also came after many attempts to “Stop the amendments against Prop. 47” and some scare tactics of some Prop. 47 supporters saying that some crime bills would be automatically repealed should Prop. 36 pass. Indeed, an uptick of crime enhancement bills were passed the last several sessions, with Governor Gavin Newsom, a Prop. 36 opponent, signing many of them. But many pointed out that it was too little, too late to stop the support for Prop. 36. Recent high-profile crimes also boosted support numbers, making any gains made by the bill passages to draw support away from Prop 36 passing ultimately moot.

Just last month, a Los Angeles Times/UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll found that 56% of Californians supported Prop 36, with only 23% opposing it. Over two thirds of conservatives and moderates were for it, and even around half of all liberal voters were for it as well,  due in part to the crime swings in major cities.

71% of Californian voters favor Prop 36

On Thursday, a new PPIC poll found that support has dramatically increased. According to the poll, 71% of likely California voters are in favor of Prop 36, with only 26% in opposition. Political support also went up across every affiliation, with 85% of Republicans, 73% of independents, and 63% of Democrats in favor. Likewise, every region of the state now has the majority in favor. Going across the state, 79% of the Inland Empire, 74% of Orange County/San Diego, 73% of the Central Valley, 71% of Los Angeles, and 64% of the San Francisco Bay Area are in favor. In total, support for Prop. 36 has a massive 45 point lead.

“Proposition 36 on crime sentences currently leads in support, interest, and importance among the ten state propositions,” said PPIC Statewide Survey director Mark Baldassare. “Seventy-one percent would vote yes, and 41 percent think the outcome is very important.”

Lawmakers across the state also responded to the poll, with most showing support of Prop 36.

“PPIC’s latest survey reflects what I hear every day managing one of California’s largest cities, and what voters of all political stripes can see with their own eyes,” said San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan on Thursday. “There are common sense steps that we can take right now to combat the epidemic of drug overdoses, retail thefts and homelessness plaguing our communities.

“By allowing judges to mandate treatment for repeat drug offenders, Proposition 36 brings back valuable tools will save lives, while combatting the increases in homelessness, stealing and dealing that untreated addiction invites.  It will offer real deterrence for those trafficking in deadly fentanyl, as well as the chronic retail theft that is raising prices for hard working Californians by billions of dollars every year and shuttering our small businesses.

“Our constituents know that turning a blind eye to the suffering on our streets is neither compassionate, safe, nor financially sustainable.   Proposition 36 was the most popular statewide question on PPIC’s survey because Californians are uniting in support of creating a safer state.  That starts by mandating treatment for those who need help the most.”

With Prop. 36 so popular among voters, many poll watchers have said that, at this point, it is all but a done deal.

“Even with all these crime bills being signed, nothing is going to stop Prop. 36 at this point,” said Rita Walker, a pollster focusing on crime-oriented propositions and ballot initiatives, to the Globe on Thursday. “This latest poll just shows what a situation California is in right now. And, if I may be a little optimistic, it shows that Californians still do care. That they still want to fight for their state. It took ten years of Prop 47 to do it, but it looks like it will happen.

“I mean, it shot up in support by 15% in one month. That is unheard of. And let’s say the margins of error are in effect. So 10%. Going up 10% in a month is huge. Not too many candidates or issues do that unless something drastic changes. And Californians right now are looking into the bills, seeing the ads, or reading and watching stories unfold around Prop 36 and making those changes. Look at how high Los Angeles is, more than 70%. And five years ago, if you said the majority of San Franciscans would be in favor of a crime enhancement bill, people would have looked like you were nuts.

“And also, look at how many politicians are now changing their tune on crime laws and Prop 36. It’s a wave at this point, and there is not much you can do to stop it at this point.”