Assemblyman Fong Advances In 20th House District Special Election

Assemblyman Vince Fong (R-Bakersfield) advanced to the May 21st runoff election for the 2oth U.S. Congressional District on Tuesday in a special election to replace former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who retired from the House late last year.

After a tumultuous 2023 in which then-Speaker of the House McCarthy was ousted from his position, McCarthy announced in December 2023 that he would be leaving office at the end of the year. The district, which covers parts of Kern, Fresno, Kings, and Tulare counties, suddenly had numerous candidates enter the race, with Governor Gavin Newsom announcing a special election for March 19th.

Three major candidates soon pulled away in polls. One was Assemblyman Fong, who had his eye on the district. While Senator Shannon Grove (R-Bakersfield) had been long considered as McCarthy’s eventual replacement, she declined the run, thrusting the “heir apparent” moniker to Fong. Fong was initially marked down as ineligible by the California Secretary of State in December because of him already running in the Assembly race. However, a Sacramento Superior Court Judge ruled a week later that Fong was indeed eligible. The other two were Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux, a Republican and a major challenger of Fong’s within the party, and Marisa Wood, a teacher and Democrat who had run against McCarthy for Congress in 2022.

Fong v. Boudreaux v. Wood

While polling showed Fong with as much as a 16 point lead over the others, the big question was who was to be his main opponent, as both Boudreaux and Wood were virtually tied. All three candidates were also in the March 5th primary for the District for the November general election, with many pollsters saying that that election’s outcome was likely going to mirror the special election on Tuesday to complete the rest of McCarthy’s term. The March 5th primary had Fong win in a landslide with 64,836 votes, or 42.1% of the vote. Boudreaux narrowly beat out Wood for the second slot, 37,007 to 32,776 votes, or 24% to 21.3%, ensuring an all GOP November election.

Held only a few weeks apart, the special election results were indeed very close to what the primary totals were. As of Wednesday afternoon, Fong currently has 43,013, or 40.8% of the vote, followed by Boudreaux with 27,625 votes, or 26.2% of the vote, and Wood, with 24,361 votes, or 23.1% of the vote. Currently, only 84% of the votes are in. While major outlets have declared Fong moving on because of his insurmountable lead, the difference between Boudreaux and Wood is still close enough that it has yet to be called. However, most expect Boudreaux to have enough over Wood to advance soon.

“In any scenario, the GOP was going to win this district no matter what, whether it was for the special election to complete McCarthy’s term or the big two year one in November,” said Fresno area pollster Lydia Rodriguez to the Globe on Wednesday. “Fong, he got the support from Trump and a bunch of others. He’s the Assemblyman there, a known name, he pulled out ahead fast. The past two elections this month showed it. Boudreaux, he’s got some big names behind him too and is a Republican too, so he got a bunch of votes. And then the Democrats all flocked to Wood, the candidate from 2022 and the only remotely big name Democrat in the race. That’s how it all shook out.”

“What we don’t know is what a Fond and Boudreaux one on one match would look like. Fong obviously has a bunch of support now. Both of them now have to worry about who the Democratic voters in the county will vote for, especially in November when everyone comes out to vote for the presidential election and the House race is the third from the top on the ballot. Will Fong’s Trump backing get him over the edge, or could Boudreaux rally a patchwork collection of support to pull through? We will likely see Boudreaux make it in for May, so this one to cover McCarthy’s term will be a big November preview. Yeah, the winner will get the incumbent advantage, but it won’t be that much all things considered. The people in the 20th District will need to decide just what kind of Republican they want in office.”

Final results on the 20th special election are due in soon.