Brian Maryott Could Overtake Rep. Mike Levin In 49th District House Race

Multiple House race prediction sites on Wednesday improved the odds that former San Juan Capistrano Mayor and City Councilman Brian Maryott could overtake Congressman Mike Levin (D-CA) in the upcoming 49th District House race.

Despite being close early this summer in polls, Maryott proceeded to fall against Levin as the months went on in the 49th district, which straddles Southern Orange County and Northern San Diego County. While many local issues have been at the center of the campaign, abortion proved to be one of the main issues in the district, which has slightly more registered Democrats than Republicans. However, worries about inflation and the continued unpopularity of Joe Biden have struck a chord with many voters in the district in the past month, in particular the high number of wealthy residents in the district who fear what inflation and a recession could do.

Much like the spikes in popularity that Congressmen David Valadao (R-CA), Michelle Steele (R-CA), and Mike Garcia (R-CA) have seen in the 22nd, 45th, and 27th districts in recent weeks respectively, a combination of low congressional approval, economic worries, and the GOP appealing to moderates and people of color more have proved to have an effect. High ad spending in California, which has many key elections that the GOP needs to help flip the House this year, has also been a factor. And in the 49th, which some had already written off as a Democratic victory already, these factors have culminated to a fighting chance for the GOP.

In particular, a scandal with Levin having bemoaned high fuel costs and saying that he felt the pain at the pump while actually owning electric cars and not having to actually use gasoline drew the ire of many earlier this year. The scandal was revisited more recently by Republicans which, along with all the other factors, helped spiral Levin down some.

Aggregate site 538 has whittled down Levin’s odds from around 95% earlier this month down to nearly 80% in the span of around a week. Even more telling was the Cook Political Report Ranking, which moved the 49th district from “Lean Democrat” to “toss-up” this week. While Mike Levin currently still has an edge thanks to being an incumbent and being elected as part of the 2018 blue wave mid-term wins for the Democrats, faltering this much less than two weeks before election day is not seen as a good sign by many and could prove that the newly realigned district could be swung around to being red if not in 2022, then sometime in the coming decade.

“It’s not unusual for races to get closer near election day,” explained Martha Parrish, a candidate issue advisor in San Diego County, to the Globe on Wednesday. “But we are seeing 10 point, 15 point, even 20 point jumps for GOP candidates all across California in different areas. There’s only so much you can explain away from ads.”

“GOP candidates have learned, at least in California, to distance themselves away from some of the more farther right elements. I mean, every candidate has shown proof that they denounced the Capitol invasion that happened last year and just cut off a main point that Democrats thought they could use to win. But the worsening economy and a lot of concerns Californians have that have gone unanswered by Democrats are starting to take a toll, and in the past few weeks we have really seen a big change from moderates.”

“In the Levin-Maryott race, a lot of people thought that this rise in support was a fluke, but as we’re seeing, it is anything but. Right now, Levin still looks he will win, but Maryott now has an outside chance. Everything that has to go right needs to go right for that to happen, and God only knows about mail-in and absentee ballots, but Maryott and other Republicans are seeing this rise. Democrats have claimed San Diego and Orange County as being more Democratic, but they forget that there are a lot of moderates and unaffiliated people out here. If Maryott even makes the race close, Democrats are going to worry.”

Final polls and predictions are likely to be in next week.