California GOP Announces Big Gains In Membership Since October 2023

Speaking from the RNC in Milwaukee on Tuesday, California Republican Party Chairwoman Jessica Millan Patterson told the media that the party has gained 160,000 more registered Republicans since October 2023, with Democrats losing 106,000 in the same time period.

While the number of registered Republicans in California fell for much of the 2000’s, numbers began to bounce back up at the beginning of the decade. A large number of Californians leaving the state compounded by factors such as growing discontentment with Democratic lawmakers in the state and the Fix California effort boosting GOP membership in all 58 counties led to a slow but steady turnaround. According to California Secretary of State data, the number of registered Republicans went up from 4,793,883 in October 2019 to 4,842,603 in January 2020 to 5,286,269 in October 2023 to 5,332,858 in January 2024. While Democratic numbers went up as well for most of the gap periods, the final stretch, October 2023 to January 2024, saw numbers go down for the first time in decades, going from 10,353,432 to 10,232,214. No party preference also saw similar losses.

While newer Secretary of State numbers have yet to formally come out, inner party tracking has continued to monitor the trends. This led to Patterson’s comments on Tuesday. Speaking from the RNC as the leader of the California delegation, Patterson initially talked up Trump and California’s role in helping him get the nomination.

“One, I think it was important for the president to do; to show everyone that he was okay and that America was okay, because this is a very scary time, regardless of what your political affiliation is, and to have him out there with everybody, certainly their security, we feel incredibly safe here,” said Patterson on Tuesday. “But to have him out there, showing us not to back down and to come together as Americans, I think it was a really great message that he sent.”

“Many people forget we are a big seat and we also have more Republicans in California than any other state at almost 5.4 million. We presented all 169 delegates to the convention on Monday.”

Patterson then went into recent GOP gains in California, highlighting the party retaking five House districts in the last two elections, as well as the latest party registration gains in the state.

“We know what our job here is in California. We have delivered the House majority. We delivered it in 2022 after picking up five congressional seats in two cycles. And that’s what we’re focused on. We picked up four of those seats in 2020 when President Trump was at the top of the ballot.

“And we’ve seen a change since October 2023. We’ve seen 160,000 new registered Republicans. In that same time, Democrats have lost 106,000. Declined to states or no party preference went down to 115,000. We’re bringing our message to communities all over the state. And I think yesterday’s conversation at the Republican National Committee about making America wealthy again is really important to Californians that are struggling to get by.”

Patterson’s newest figures show that the slow ship turning of registered voters is continuing on in California. For Democrats, the loss means little when it comes to big elections such as the Presidency, Governorship or U.S. Senate, as registered Democrats still outnumber Republicans by close to 2 to 1. However, at the state election and House level, this could spell more districts suddenly going more purple in the coming years.

CAGOP continues party registration gains

“Even if Patterson’s figures are a little off, it still shows amazing growth on the Republican’s part,” said political strategist Melonie Greer, who focuses on elections in Western states, to the Globe on Tuesday. “I always like to use the analogy of the Democrats kicking Republicans off the mountain in the late 80’s and early 90’s. They watched them fall and thought that they would never get up. But here they are coming back up with the Democrats slipping a little bit.

“I don’t know what other state to compare California too since their story is so unique. I guess the Midwest has some similarities, as they have been losing seats for a long time too. Many swing states there, like Ohio, are pretty much red at this point. And, well, we saw what Trump did to the blue wall in 2016. Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are all swing now, and Minnesota is likely to join them in a few elections. Only Illinois, thanks to Chicago, is really staying true blue. And look at everything. The RNC convention is in Wisconsin, the VP pick is from Ohio, and the Dems hold their convention in Chicago next month.

“California is solid blue, like Illinois, but like the other states, voter registrations percentages are changing. But you can’t also use the Midwest as an indicator for California completely, it’s just a lot of similarities.

“Overall, these new figures are good news for the GOP in California, and annoying to Democrats. It’s not worrisome just yet. They know the population is decreasing and everything. But if the trends continue on, they will be evaluating more and more what they need to do to turn it around for them. Right now, the Republican strategy is winning. And, with Biden having that debate performance and the calls to drop out, and Trump’s assassination, I can only imagine what the new registration figures will be in August.”

As of Tuesday afternoon, California Democratic leaders have yet to respond to Patterson’s registration numbers.