Congressman Ken Calvert Projected To Win Tight Reelection Against Democratic Challenger Will Rollins

Congressman Ken Calvert (R-CA) was projected as the winner of the Riverside County 41st Congressional District on Monday, winning reelection against Attorney Will Rollins.

Since 1993, Calvert has been the Congressman for the Inland Empire District. The current boundaries of the district stretch from the outer banks of the Inland Empire across the desert to the outskirts of Indio, covering cities like Palm Springs along the way. Since being elected, the district has been a close call for Calvert several times, with most races having Calvert with with between 50% and 55% of the vote. In 2022 Calvert won by just 11,000 votes, good enough for 52.3% of the vote.

As such, the 2024 election had Calvert down as vulnerable once again, especially with more L.A. residents moving to his district in the past few years. Back in March, Calvert won the Primary election with 53% of the vote, defeating Rollins, who came in second with only around 38%. However, Rollins soon won over the shifting district with a May poll now showing him up over Calvert 45% to 44%. Harris being installed as the candidate and some local blunders caused Rollins to shoot up even more, with him climbing to a 41% to 35% with 24% undecided lead by the late summer.

However, things changed in September. Rollins’ career as a prosecutor came under scrutiny, with new reports finding that he had gone easy on many drug dealers and gang members despite running as a tough on crime candidate. That, plus Harris’ post convention down-ballot bump waning meant that Calvert was prime to jump back up. At the end of September, Calvert had retaken the lead, going up by one point 48% to 47%. Rollins didn’t give up, and pushed for more ads, fueled by the national party pouring millions into his campaign. This only did so much for Rollins, as a poll a few weeks before election day had the race at a dead heat.

Calvert wins again

Trump’s late surge in the polls, mixed with more Latino voters voting Republican gave Calvert a late edge. The day after election day, with 65% of the vote in, Calvert had 122,437 votes and Rollins 115,695. In terms of percentages, this was 51.4% to 48.6%. Some in the GOP feared that the Democrats could get a late bump in mail-in ballots still needing to be counted, as had happened in prior years. But it changed very little. By Monday 75% of the vote was in, and the percentages barely changed, with Calvert up 51.3% to 48.7%, or 153,106 votes to 145,558 votes. While some outlets like the AP had yet to call it on Monday, many others did, with that amount being deemed insurmountable.

As of Monday night, neither Calvert or Rollins commented on the race being called, with Calvert being busy with Veteran’s Day duties. However, comments from both candidates are expected soon, especially as more and more outlets are calling the race.

“This was one of his closest races yet, but Calvert squeaked through yet again,” explained Gina DeSimone, a Washington-based analyst who focused on close Congressional races in Western states, in a Globe interview on Monday. “And this is just another disaster for the Democrats. They knew California would be key to getting the House, and so far, two of the races they hoped to nab have come up, and they lost both of them. For the GOP, you know, they know they aren’t going to control the state, but they are helping secure the House. California Republicans could prove to be the closers for securing the House for the GOP. One County Commissioner I consulted with on a poll, who is Republican, said that “Think of these House races as an apology for Kamala.

“Calvert fought tooth and nail for the district and won. The Democrats will want to see the final tally at the end, but they’ll want to know what went wrong. And honestly, working class voters and Latino voters managed to outshine the transplants. That’s what happened. Calvert knew what he was doing.”

As of Monday night, 8 other House races in California have yet to be called, included 4 that the Democrats had hoped to flip or take over this year.