Home>Articles>Cox Campaign Survey Finds Newsom Recall Likely to Pass

Gov. Gavin Newsom. (Photo: Kevin Sanders for California Globe)

Cox Campaign Survey Finds Newsom Recall Likely to Pass

In an election that is all about Gavin Newsom, he starts out with only 27% of voters having a ‘very’ favorable opinion of him

By Katy Grimes, June 10, 2021 5:13 pm

California Recall gubernatorial candidate John Cox’s campaign released new polling Thursday on the recall campaign against Gov. Gavin Newsom which found the most “intensity” on the “Yes” vote on the recall ballot.

The pollster, Moore Information Group, reported:

Governor Gavin Newsom is walking a tightrope among Californians most likely to vote in the upcoming recall election,”  Among all voters surveyed, 44% say they would vote “Yes” to recall/remove Newsom while 50% would vote “No” and 6% are undecided. However, among the voters who say are most likely to turn out in a recall election (N=682), it’s bad news for Newsom: 49% would vote “Yes” to recall the Governor while 46% would vote “No” and 5% are undecided.


These results suggest the race is much tighter than recent public polling has indicated. Especially troubling for Newsom is that 1-in-5 registered Democrats, along with 82% of GOP voters and 45% of Independent or NPP/other voters, would vote to recall Newsom – suggesting the effort isn’t solely a partisan affair.

They also unsurprisingly found, “if Newsom is recalled, John Cox is the front-runner to replace him.”

Gubernatorial candidate John Cox campaign photo (Photo: John Cox for Governor 2021)

Lastly, the said “Size matters, and this election – like most ‘special elections’ – will be all about the size of the turnout.” The pollsters explain:

Newsom’s numbers are soft, and the data suggests that could soften turnout and boost the “Yes” vote on the recall. The turnout model for this survey is similar to the turnout in the 2003 Recall and respondents were also asked how likely they are to vote in a recall election this year. Only 85% of our sample reported that they are “very” or “fairly” likely to vote in a recall election this year, indicating that turnout could be lower than 2003.

Most interesting was their analysis of the numbers:

In an election that is all about Gavin Newsom, he starts out with only 27% of voters having a “very” favorable opinion of him. More problematic for Newsom is that when looking at the mood of the electorate, just 48% of voters believe California is heading in the “right direction.”

Even more troubling for the Governor, the critical NPP/other block of voters are especially pessimistic with just 43% saying the state is heading in the “right direction” while 51% say it’s heading off on the “wrong track.” If turnout is lower than 2003, Newsom appears to be the likely culprit.

Unless another celebrity-candidate jumps into the recall election,

Here is the pollster’s report:



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9 thoughts on “Cox Campaign Survey Finds Newsom Recall Likely to Pass

  1. I’m very glad to see this. The Moore Group’s poll makes more sense on its face than previous polls we’ve seen. Probably should be tempered by the pollster’s conclusion that John Cox is the front-running candidate, but I assume this polling outfit wants to give the campaign the most realistic picture possible, so there’s that. The “intensity for yes” angle is interesting. Wondering if the reference to “turnout” takes into consideration what will likely be another vote by mail election. But absent fraud(?!), it seems as though vote by mail might work in the Recall’s favor. Just thinking out loud, for what it’s worth, ha.

    1. Absent fraud…hmmm. Distrust and verify. I’m afraid that Queeg might be right, Showandtell. As you point out, Newsom is acting VERY confident these days.

  2. So Moore Information Group is hired (paid) by the John Cox Campaign, and their polling coincidentally finds that John Cox is the replacement Governor front runner – ya sure – just like Hillary was going to win 99-1. John Cox is a weak RINO and will be another Arnold Schwarzenegger. The best replacement candidate for CA governor will be Ric Grenell. Let’s encourage him to announce he’s running! Go to FIX AMERICA and tell Ric to run (contact at bottom of volunteer page): https://fixcalifornia.com/volunteer/

  3. Tulsi Gabbard where are you? Please step in and save our state you would win this recall in a Landslide! I am a registered NPP, otherwise known as an Independent in less PC states. We cannot risk Newsom remaining in office as he does not care about the common person.

  4. Comrades
    The Noose has it in the bag….Republicans can count Globalism dollars, but the poor count token benefits, free health care, homeless privileges, food drives, Section 8 to barely survive….
    Dancing bears don’t cut it….

    1. Yeah. He sure is acting and talking like he KNOWS he has it in the bag, Queeg. So, why? Is the fix in?

  5. To those that can I hope spy cams are being set up in the right places. If this is not a FAIR and HONEST election hopefully the cameras will tell the who, what, where and why it wasn’t. It’s time to play as dirty as the JACKASSES in power.

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