Former CAGOP Chairman Shawn Steel Says California Is On Track To Pick Up 2 More House Seats This Year

In a statement at the Republican National Convention this week, RNC Sergeant at Arms and former California Republican Party Chairman Shawn Steel said that the state is on track to pick up at least two more Congressional seats this year, along with Senate candidate Steve Garvey likely looking up at picking up new voters  in the state who didn’t vote in previous elections.

Following the blue wave election in 2018, in which California Republicans lost seven seats and only held 7 out of 53 in the state, the GOP rebounded. In 2020, despite Donald Trump losing the national election to Joe Biden, California gained back 4 of the seats lost only two years prior. The next year, Republicans gained a seat, with the Democrats losing an additional seat due to California losing a House seat because of population shifts nationwide. Many commentators noted the the gain, as well as GOP members in California keeping their seats in tight races, was a big factor in the GOP retaking the House that year.

But this week, Steel said that current trends point to at least two more GOP House gains in California in 2024, with a possibility of up to four.  Steel specifically noted that the Central Valley is likely to have some new GOP held areas to help bring back the total number of GOP seats in the state to back up 2018 levels.

“Right now we’re on track for winning two new Congressional seats in California. That helps us in the House. That’s a blessing,” said Steel. “We’ve gained five seats in the last two elections. Five net new seats. And we’re on track for two more, but we could get as much as four more. Politics is funny, it can change. But I don’t think anything will be as traumatic as an attempted assassination.

“For the new seats we’re looking at the Central Valley. Heavily Latino, trending Trump for years now. Previously, we had guys like Mike Garcia and David Valadao in. This time we have a whole new team of local folks who have earned their stripes, they have run businesses in the area. And in Stockton we now have a Republican Mayor, Kevin Lincoln. He’s a former Marine, he has a young family, he speaks Spanish. People like that can help pick up a seat for us.”

Steel also answered questions about the upcoming Senate race. While Congressman Adam Schiff (D-CA) currently has a double digit lead in polling, Steel noted that a lot of conservative Californians who didn’t vote in 2016 or 2020 will likely be coming out to vote in 2024, potentially giving Garvey a currently unaccounted for boost.

House gains and Senate votes

“Adam Schiff is such a preacher of badness,” added Steel. “The one good thing about him is that he ran against two Democrats and they lost. And because they gave up on Congress for it, the two of them are out of a job. I’m happy about that.”

“But for Garvey he represents happy, identifiable, he’s pleasant, he’s calm. He’s helped my wife [Congresswoman] Michelle Steel (R-CA) in a Congressional fundraiser. He’s generous, he brings baseballs with him and signs them. I think he’s a very good addition.”

“In this campaign what I think has changed is that we’re going to have a lot of Trump voters who don’t. A lot of evangelicals, well, they don’t know how to vote, they don’t trust the system or the ballot. They’re going to figure out how to vote now. So we’re going to see a higher turnout in those low-propensity voters and help Steve Garvey. So we don’t know where it’s going to go.”

Political analysts told the Globe on Thursday that while 4 seats might be a bit of a stretch, especially with many close races being held in places with GOP incumbents, 2 could be possible.

“If the GOP manages to hold onto all current seats, which isn’t guaranteed to say the least, then 2 isn’t crazy to say,” explained Malik Griffin, a Los Angeles polling analyst, to the Globe on Thursday. “The biggest one they want isn’t even Central Valley. It’s Orange County. They lost Orange County in 208 and have been piecing it back the last few elections. This is the last one, the 47th District. And thanks to Katie Porter leaving the seat, it’s open.”

“Beyond that though, Central Valley is the future place for GOP expansion. They lost many seats there in the 2010s, and they want them back. And like Steel mentioned, they have been focusing on Latino voters there to a positive effect.”

“The bottom line is, for any gains, the GOP needs to keep all the current seats, which is tough, then expand out. That’s doable, but everything needs to go right. Biden’s fall the last few weeks has been a big factor for sure, as has Trump’s popularity soaring after the shooting last week. But looking long term to November and, well, a lot can happen.”