Garvey, Early, and Bradley: Where The Endorsements Will Go

For most of the 2024 U.S. Senate race for former Senator Dianne Feinstein’s seat, the three main Democrats, Congresswoman Barbara Lee (D-CA),  Congresswoman Katie Porter (D-CA), and  Congressman Adam Schiff (D-CA) , have been topping the polls. Lawyer Eric Early (R), Businessman James Bradley (R), and later, former Major League Baseball star Steve Garvey (R) have been relegated to the background. That has been pretty much the narrative. Solid blue state, let’s focus on the Democrats, maybe the GOP will luck out with a mention at the bottom of an article.

But the GOP candidates have been continuously derailing Democratic expectations. Early has been getting a surprising number of county GOP endorsements and actually topped a few polls in June thanks to the huge Democratic candidate support split. Bradley, with a small campaign, held his own and even was leading in Republican support for a few months. And, most recently, Garvey has come on the scene, quickly scored a double digit support percentage in polls, and is currently in third place in polling, ahead of Lee and only a few points behind Porter.

Only a few weeks ago, media outlets had continued to barely report on how GOP candidates were doing. This week, outlets are now reporting that Garvey may get second or first place in the primary. The narrative is changing. But, as the Globe reported on last month, an area of all importance for GOP candidates that still hasn’t been fully utilized has been endorsements.

As endorsements can make or break a campaign, especially if the group or person endorsing a candidate can bring in a bloc of voters, these get vitally important closer to election day. And with Primary day just over 3 months out, these have only become more important.

Last week, the California Democratic Party voted on an official endorsement, but fell on in-fighting. Lee, a darling amongst left-wing Democrats, managed to get 41% of the vote despite getting under 10% in recent polls thanks to the far-left bloc. Schiff got another 40% with Porter only getting scraps of votes left over. As a party endorsement would have pretty much guaranteed a one or two finish in the primary, the lack of any endorsement was disheartening.

Lee seems to have that kind of luck. She arguably has the most prominent endorsements of any candidate, but her message is failing to land with more and more Californians. And this is where it kicks in for the GOP. For the Democrats, it is just musical chairs on who gets into the primary. For the GOP, they want to upend that and get someone in. Even if November 2024 is a likely loss, then pushing out some top Democrats who gave up their House seats to run early on, as well as embarrassing the Democratic Party in general with a good showing, can prove that the GOP still is alive in California.

And for that to happen, endorsements are key. The California Republican Party is likely not going to support anyone unless they make it past the primary, but everyone below that is fair game. Early has been on a hot streak for months, racking up a few lawmakers and several county and city Republican party group endorsements, with the most from the Republican Club of San Francisco on Monday.

“Homelessness and crime in California continues to skyrocket. You can’t walk down a street in San Francisco without fear of getting accosted, and you can’t park your car without worrying about a window being broken and items being stolen,” said Joan Leone, President of the Republican Club of San Francisco, on Monday. “Elected Democrats in Sacramento and DC have turned a blind eye to the rise in crime and homelessness in our cities. They treat criminals better than the law abiding and the victims of crime. It is past time for a new, strong, unwavering voice for the people in California. California needs Eric Early in the US Senate.”

But this is where it gets tricky. Early was an early favorite, but is currently at 2% of the vote according to recent polls. Bradley is doing little better, with 3%. Garvey, meanwhile, has come out with a solid 10% and finally broke through the Democratic candidate wall this month by overtaking Lee. Like the Democrats, the GOP needs to solidify on support, but are bogged down by a split.

The need for GOP endorsements grows

And that could change with endorsements. But prominent Californian Republicans haven’t exactly thrown their support behind anyone just yet. No sitting House members have, and neither has any GOP mayors, local officials, celebrities, or most major groups. And as the election approaches, this is becoming all the more important.

“I’ve said before what the GOP, specifically Garvey, needs to do to win,” Stephanie Lewis, a pollster in Southern California said. “Right now, let’s say that Garvey gets a bit more popular. Add in Early and Bradley’s totals as well as a decent chunk of the undecided voters. We’re looking at a big range, but that is anywhere between 25% to 35% on primary day. Considering that a quarter of California are registered Republicans, that percentage could be even higher.

“Fundraising is an issue, but it’s not the main one. That is support. And endorsements are key. Lee’s endorsement to support ratio isn’t very good, but she has a lot of other factors that are working against her. The Senate GOP candidates need big names behind them. Schwarzenegger, Wilson, those sorts of names. And we just aren’t seeing that. Schiff is. Pelosi is. Even Lee is. Early has a decent network from previous campaigns helping, and Garvey can utilize his longstanding fundraising and even athletic connections to get some big names stumping for him . I mean, get Fernando Valenzuela to talk him up in Latino areas of SoCal or other former teammates across the state, and that is something even Schiff and Porter could never even hope to get.”

“That endorsement button needs to be pushed now, or at the very least, come out in waves. You know, bring out a big name  each week over every X number of days when they are out of the news cycle. Then, bam, new one. That’s how you do endorsements right. Some of the most successful campaigns ever didn’t just accumulate endorsements, but had them come in at strategic times.”

“Democrats have largely brought in too many early on because of the perceived 3 candidate race. For GOP candidates, now is the time to unleash theirs and build momentum going into the final few months. Get some ridiculous polling numbers. If Garvey can get a 1 or 2 slot and Early and Bradley start to threaten Lee again, or even overtake her, within a few months time, then the Democrats will start freaking out more than they have. This was in the bag for them in January. Well, it’s November, and the GOP is gaining on them.”

More polls on the 2024 Senate race in California are to come out soon.