Gavin Newsom Will Lose South Carolina in 2028

On Tuesday, Gov. Gavin Newsom made his first trip to South Carolina in his latest obsession with the presidency. More than a distraction, like with corn ethanol for Iowa 2028, Newsom is pandering to primary voters at the expense of California. Here is why Newsom is not the Democrat frontrunner, will lose South Carolina in 2028, and will never be president.

In 2008, South Carolina and Nevada were moved forward in the election calendar to match traditional early caucus and primary states Iowa and New Hampshire. South Carolina is a proxy for blacks and the South, and Nevada is a proxy for Hispanics and the West.

Blacks are a key demographic for Democrats, with 83% voting for then-Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024, although there is a growing divide between black men and women. In 2020, then-Vice President Joe Biden lost Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada, but was rescued by the dean of the Congressional Black Caucus, South Carolina Rep. Jim Clyburn. In exchange for Clyburn’s endorsement, Biden promised to select a black female running mate, which eventually was Harris. Black Democrats were also critical to selecting former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton over Bernie Sanders in 2016, and who originally supported her before defecting to then Sen. Barack Obama after he won the support of white progressives in Iowa in 2008.

South Carolina Democrat Primaries

• 2004 – John Edwards (South)

• 2008 – Barack Obama (Black Caucus)

• 2016 – Hillary Clinton (Black Caucus)

• 2020 – Joe Biden (Black Caucus)

Newsom’s potential rivals in South Carolina 2028 include Governors Wes Moore (Maryland), Andy Beshear (Kentucky), and Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan). Moore is a black Army veteran, Beshear is a supposedly moderate governor from the South, and Whitmer is a woman from a must win swing state in the Midwest. Each was whispered as potential presidential and vice presidential candidates in 2024 and have better in-state approval ratings than Newsom.

The problem for Newsom is his base is rich white liberal Boomers and the only black people he knows are politicians, celebrities, and athletes. Newsom’s hometown in Marin County is 0.5% black. As Mayor of San Francisco, blacks were only 8% and are now less than 6% of the population. California is only 5.5% black. They aren’t people Newsom would have naturally encountered. As governor, Newsom pivoted to pandering to black Democrat political interests.

In 2019, Newsom signed the “Fair Pay to Play Act” to allow college athletes to profit from their “name image likeness,” with LeBron James in a fake barbershop. In 2020, Newsom established a reparations task force, despite California never being a slave state. He frequently feigns support to pander to party activists, but most of their demands are too extreme even for Newsom.

In 2020, Newsom appointed Chair of the California Legislative Black Caucus Shirley Weber as Secretary of State to succeed Alex Padilla. Newsom appointed Padilla, the first Hispanic senator from California to replace Harris, however there were demands for Newsom to appoint a black female instead.

Newsom promised to do it “next time,” which backfired with the passing of the late-Sen. Dianne Feinstein in 2023. To avoid his IOU and supporting Rep. Barbara Lee over Adam Schiff, as well as Katie Porter, Newsom selected Maryland resident Laphonza Butler. Butler checked all the “correct” boxes, as a black, female, pro-choice, lesbian, with the expectation to leave and do nothing as senator.

In 2024, Newsom opposed Proposition 36, which repealed provisions of Proposition 47 that are responsible for increased crime in California. Proposition 36 passed with 68% support and in every county, including San Francisco. Despite this Newsom, who has no real ideology beyond the presidency, isn’t enforcing or funding it because it’s what he thinks black voters want. Blacks are just a caricature to Newsom, when black people care about what all Americans care about – family, safety, homes, schools, and jobs.

California’s black population has been declining for 30 years, not just because of Newsom, but all Democrats. Most blacks moved to California in the 20th Century to work in the military and defense industry, ports and shipyards, and steel mills. Those collapsed because of Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) at the end of the Cold War and Bay Area Democrats like Ron Dellums, Dianne Feinstein, and Barbara Boxer, who destroyed what made California the largest state in the nation. At its peak, there were four historically black districts, and today there are only enough blacks for one without gerrymandering.

Conversely, South Carolina is one of the top states for business in the country. In 1994, the largest BMW factory opened in Greer-Spartansburg. In 2005, the largest U.S. additive manufacturing company, 3D Systems, moved from California to Rock Hill. In 2017, Lockheed moved its F-16 factory to Greenville. In 2020, Boeing consolidated its 787 Dreamliner factory to North Charleston. The jobs that brought blacks and others to California, that made California, are now in states like South Carolina.

Gov. Gavin Newsom is not the front runner, he won’t win South Carolina in 2028, and he will never be president. Consider if Newsom won the Democrat nomination, including South Carolina, who compliments Newsom the most? Gov. Wes Moore who is a black Army veteran; Andy Beshear who is from the South and balances Newsom’s reputation as a far left liberal; or Gretchen Whitmer who is a white woman from a must win swing state in the Midwest. Then consider Newsom is the liability, and any combination of the three and more are better without Newsom, who has nothing to offer the world.