NRCC Fires Back: California Democrats’ Gerrymandering Gambit May Backfire in Key GOP-Held Seats

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) is pushing an aggressive counter-narrative ahead of California’s 2026 midterms, arguing that Governor Gavin Newsom and state Democrats are banking on a controversial Proposition 50 redistricting plan to flip as many as five Republican-held congressional seats – but historical voting patterns, voter registration trends, and GOP over-performance in blue districts suggest California Democrats’ gerrymandering scheme could fall flat.

According to an NRCC memo, Democrats are targeting the districts currently held by Reps. Doug LaMalfa (CA-01), Kevin Kiley (CA-03), David Valadao (CA-22), Young Kim or Ken Calvert (depending on final lines), and Darrell Issa (CA-48). The committee calls the effort a “Prop 50 redistricting scheme” designed to erase Republican representation through aggressive gerrymandering.

On Wednesday morning, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) announced it is expanding House Democrats’ Districts in Play for the 2026 election cycle to include Issa and Valadao.

“The DCCC’s Districts in Play are competitive districts held by vulnerable Republicans across the country that will determine the House Majority,” the DCC said in a press release.

Yet, Republican strategists point out that the GOP has repeatedly won in heavily Democratic-leaning California districts when fielding strong candidates. In 2020, Joe Biden carried 46 of California’s 53 congressional districts, yet four seats that backed Biden still elected or re-elected Republicans: CA-39 (Young Kim), CA-48 (then Michelle Steel), CA-25 (Mike Garcia), and CA-21 (David Valadao).

The NRCC spotlight shines brightest on the newly redrawn CA-48 in Orange and San Diego counties, which Democrats shifted roughly 19 points to their advantage under the Proposition 50 framework.

Even with those changes, the NRCC claims, Donald Trump would still have carried the district in 2016. In the tough 2018 midterm environment, a Republican would have won the seat by 2.4 percentage points under the new lines, and in 2022 Rep. Darrell Issa would have prevailed by more than 6 points.

Issa himself has a documented track record of outperforming Republican presidential nominees in the region. 

In 2016, while Hillary Clinton won the old CA-49 by 7.4 points, Issa squeaked out a 0.5-point victory – an 8-point over-performance compared to Trump. In 2020 and again in 2024, Issa continued to run ahead of Trump by 0.2 and 3.3 points respectively.

“Gavin Newsom’s corrupt Democrats are banking on a gerrymandered map to do what their candidates can’t. They can redraw lines, but they can’t redraw Darrell Issa’s record of beating them in blue territory and delivering for California families. CA-48 isn’t their firewall, it’s a delusion,” said NRCC Spokesman Christian Martinez.

Statewide voter registration trends also appears to bolster the GOP argument.

Since 2022, Democrats have lost 2.4 percentage points of their statewide registration advantage. No Party Preference voters, often seen as a swing bloc, have dropped from 23.2 percent in 2020 to 21.8 percent in early 2025, with the NRCC asserting many are re-registering Republican rather than Democrat.

Perhaps most encouraging for Republicans is turnout data. 

In every general election from 2018 through 2024, California Republicans have outperformed their registration numbers on Election Day:

• 2018: Republicans held a 2.3-point registration disadvantage but a 3.4-point turnout advantage (+1.1 net).
• 2020: Democrats led registration by 2.3 points, but Republicans narrowed the turnout gap to just 1.5 points (+0.8 net).
• 2022: Despite a 5.3-point Democratic registration edge, Republicans posted a stunning 4.6-point net advantage.
• 2024: Democrats led registration by 4.3 points and turnout by 2.7 points, yet Republicans still gained 1.6 points net.

NRCC officials say the data shows California Republicans have consistently closed the gap when voters actually cast ballots. Compounding Democratic disarray may hand Republicans another opening. 

The party is grappling with an internal ideological battle after the upset victory of Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani in New York City’s mayoral race, energizing “progressives” (aka socialists) nationwide. 

This morning, my Hanford office was vandalized by anti-Israel protestors. I strongly support the right to peaceful protest, but violence and vandalism are never acceptable. In a democracy, harassment and intimidation is not how you make your voice heard. (1/3) pic.twitter.com/f2OHRuqeLu

— Rep. David Valadao (@RepDavidValadao) November 27, 2023

In a crowded CA-48 field, at least twelve Democratic candidates are vying for the nomination, including 2020 nominee Ammar Campa-Najjar, who lost to Issa by eight points and more than 28,500 votes.

As California’s independent redistricting commission finalizes maps under the Proposition 50 framework, Republicans are signaling confidence that demographic shifts, turnout strength, and Democratic infighting could blunt what Democrats hoped would be a decisive redistricting advantage in the nation’s largest congressional delegation.