Poll Reveals Democratic Strengths in California, But…

The recently released Public Policy Institute of California poll confirmed what political observers have been saying for a long time. President Donald Trump has few fans in California. His approval rating is 29% among likely voters. Democrats dominate the state politics with the super-majority Democratic controlled legislature receiving positive approval from the voters; voters were happy to support Proposition 50 in November to strengthen the Democratic hand in Congress, and 63% of Golden State voters plan to vote for Democrats in the coming mid-term election.

It appears that Californians support the status quo.

Except…

There was one item that seemed inconsistent in the polling.

Voters statewide approved of the way Governor Gavin Newsom was doing his job giving him a 56% approval rating. Yet, when the pollsters asked if the next governor should continue Newsom’s policies or take the state in a different direction with new ideas, 54% of likely voters chose the different policy route.

Even in the Democratic strongholds of Los Angeles and San Francisco, the poll found a split when it came to following Newsom’s policies. In L.A. 52% supported moving away from Newsom’s policies; in San Francisco, a bare 51% wanted to stick with Newsom’s direction.

How do those two responses square? If one likes Newsom’s stewardship, should support for his policies be likewise embraced?

I asked PPIC pollster chief Mark Baldassare about what appeared an inconsistency in the voters’ minds. Baldassare agreed the contrasting answers to the two questions were surprising. He suggested while Newsom was receiving strong support in the afterglow of his Prop. 50 victory to improve his approval ratings, the thought to try a new direction might simply be that Newsom has been on the scene for nearly two full terms, and voters are saying it is a time for a change.

Or it can be argued that more than half of the state’s voters are looking for something different, willing to listen to new ideas. Voters may want a change because there are too many potholes on the road to the end of the rainbow, the California dream—potholes labeled housing costs, gas and electric costs, crime and more.

This opens the door to a candidate who can capture the public imagination with new ideas to overcome the state’s negatives while hanging on to Newsom’s vision in areas that get strong support from the electorate.