Rep. Josh Harder Narrowly Defeats Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln In Close House Race

Congressman Josh Harder (D-CA) declared a narrow victory over Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln (R) late on Wednesday, avoiding defeat in a race that had become unexpectedly close.

A Harder-Lincoln race this year had been expected for some time, with Lincoln declaring his intention to run all the way back in July of last year. While not a solid blue district, the ninth District, which forms a rough trapezoid around the city of Stockton covering most of San Joaquin County and parts of Contra Costa and Sacramento counties, had been expected to be an easy Harder victory. Harder had won with almost 55% of the vote in 2022, and it was widely expected to be more of the same in 2024.

However, Harder faced a new reality in the primary. The district had rapidly grown with new Republican party members in the short two years, thanks in part due to the surrounding farmlands and the growing importance of water issues. In the first poll in February, Lincoln was actually leading Harder by 4 points. And in the election itself the next month, Harder won as the only Democratic candidate with 49.7% of the vote, but with all the GOP candidates combined to get over 50%.

It was a win of sorts, but proved just how vulnerable he was. Harder’s campaign then stepped up fundraising to combat this, finding Lincoln to be much more popular than previously thought. Most outlets still had Harder winning and the district still being strongly Democratic, even though polling was more and more focused on the race being close and Republicans suddenly getting a little hopeful of a seat flip there.

Following the election last Tuesday, the race continued to surprise people as, unlike 2022, the race wasn’t called that night, with early results showing Lincoln possibly overtaking Harder. Like many races in California and the Country, Latino voters had shifted towards Trump in the weeks leading up to the election in the District, making a close race even closer. Most of the big 6 races, close Districts Democrats wanted to flip or take over from the GOP this year, had declared winner before the ninth district as well. However, on Wednesday, a new state tally had Harder at 117,071 votes to Lincoln’s 108,946 with 86% of the vote in. Or, in terms of percentages, 51.8% to 48.2%. This pushed Harder over the edge, with Harder declaring victory and Lincoln conceding Wednesday night. Harder’s victory made it among the last races in both California and the Country to be decided.

A narrow victory for Harder

“Tallying up every vote takes time, and with today’s results, we are confident we’ve won. I’m incredibly grateful and honored our community put their faith in me once again,” said Harder in a statement.

In his concession on X, Lincoln responded by noting “While the results are not what we had hoped for, I remain incredibly proud of the journey we’ve shared and the incredible progress we’ve made together. I remain committed to our community and our shared mission to make the Valley a better place. This campaign may have ended, but the work continues. Thank you from the bottom of my heart.”

While Harder was reelected, the huge drop in support for the incumbent this year, matched with the growing number of Republicans in the District, has now marked the ninth House district as a prime flip candidate for the GOP in the 2026 election. Should Harder’s voter percentage stay the same, it will have been Harder’s worst election performance ever, with less people voting for him than in 2018, when he narrowly flipped the district away from then Congressman Jeff Denham (R) with just above 52% of the vote.

“Harder has to know how quickly his position in the district is deteriorating,” explained Stockton area pollster Ramon Batista to the Globe on Thursday. “Harder came up when the district was becoming blue. But after some redistricting and a lot of Demographic changes, the district isn’t really as strong for the Democrats now. Polls earlier this year showed that even before Trump grew in popularity, so this narrow Harder victory can’t be attributed to that either. The GOP is growing stronger there and had a solid candidate. It wouldn’t surprise me if Lincoln decided to run again in two years.”

As of Thursday afternoon, the AP and a few other outlets have not called the race, but are expected to soon.