Rep. Michelle Steel Declares Huge Victory In 45th Congressional District Race

Congresswoman Michelle Steel (R-CA) gave a statement on Monday, formally declaring victory in the primary and denouncing her opponents, despite the second place victor having yet to be selected.

Since Steel flipped her district in 2020 and defeated then Congressman Harley Rouda with a narrow win, she has remained the LA/OC County’s member of Congress and is one of only 18 House members who are Republican in a district that voted for Biden in 2020. She  dominated polls and came into election day with tenfold the amount of campaign funds than the rest of the candidates put together. That’s not to mention a strong base and  pull from not only Republicans, but also moderates and DINOs. She has, overall, been expected to be the candidate to beat since at least November, as Democratic candidates in the district have been squabbling.

While there are 4 Democrats in the race, only two were at significant support levels on the day of the primary election: Garden Grove City Councilor Kim Bernice Nguyen-Penaloza (D) and Consumer Attorneys of California Board Member Derek Tran (D). Nguyen-Penaloza, who declared for the race all the way back in January 2023, entered the primary with being the only one running other than Steel who has won public office, having the most endorsements by far, and being the Democratic Party giving her ‘presumptive candidate’ endorsement for the race. Tran, meanwhile, joined the race only in late 2023, but quickly grew to be one of the top candidates.

Attorney and TikTok influencer Cheyenne Hunt (D), who had once been a strong challenger, was knocked back to a distant third following Tran joining. Indeed, polls found that while Steel had a commanding lead, Tran was polling at 11%, Nguyen-Penaloza at 10%, and Hunt at 6%. Following the election o the 5th, Steel quickly shot up to a huge, lead, but with Tran and Nguyen Penaloza closely behind. However, as more votes have come in Steel’s lead became wider and wider. She eventually secured the top spot. Currently, Steel is at 78,020 votes, or 54.9% of the vote total. Meanwhile, Tran and Nguyen-Penaloza remained very close, with no winner being declared for second place. Right now, Tran has 22,544 votes, Penaloza-Nguyen 22,178 votes, and Hunt 11,971, or 15.9%, 15.6%, and 8.4% respectively.

However, over the weekend, the race was largely called for Tran, despite a narrow 400 vote gap between Tran and his closest opponent.

I am honored to be the Democratic Nominee for #CA45. Thank you Kim Nguyen-Penaloza for your gracious call & endorsement.
In the Army I swore an oath to serve this country & in November we will defeat corrupt Michelle Steel & provide true representation to the people of #CA45 pic.twitter.com/a5XYwpwQxB

— Derek Tran (@derektranCA45) March 23, 2024

With her opponent set, Steel gave a formal victory speech on Monday, denouncing Tran.

Southern California families deserve and need someone in Washington who won’t raise their taxes and who will always fight to lower them.

My opponent won’t make that commitment.

I am, and will always be, Southern California’s number one advocate.https://t.co/tP31WtJXDe

— Michelle Steel (@MichelleSteelCA) March 25, 2024

“Thank you to the voters of California’s 45th Congressional District for the trust and support they have once again placed in me,” said Steel in a statement. “Southern California families deserve and need someone in Washington who won’t raise their taxes and who will always fight to lower them. It’s what I’ve done and continue doing.

“My opponent won’t make the commitment to not vote for higher taxes, all indications are he supports them. While I’ve been battling the Chinese Communist Party on the Select Committee on the CCP, my opponent gladly accepts the endorsement of someone who pushed Confucius Institutes in American Classrooms. Where I fought fervently against the Inflation Reduction Act that pours tens of billions of dollars into the IRS for auditors to target working families, my opponent proudly supports it.

“The defining difference is I have the courage of my convictions, and voters know where I stand on the issues that matter most to them. I support lower taxes, more freedom, less spending, an America that challenges the Chinese Communist Party and a secure border. My English may be broken but my voice is loud and positions clear. I am and will always be Southern California’s number one advocate.”

With Steel all but certain to now face Tran, as the California Secretary of State has yet to officially call the race, Congressional race experts told the Globe that  this race would still be one to keep an eye on, despite Steel’s growing support.

“Steel has really proved that she deserves to be the frontrunner for the November race with this primary win,” said Heath Becker, a New York-based political analyst who focuses on swing districts. “Biden won that district in 2020. But, also remember that pretty much every other race there has gone to the GOP. Recent estimates show that the district is leaning Republican, Plus Steel went from winning by just 51% in 2020 to 52.4% in 2022. She’s trending upwards.

“The Democrats can still win this district with a strong and well known candidate. Tran will really need to hustle to stay within 4 points of Steel through November. But those voting results don’t lie. Democrats are torn between the type of representative they want, while the GOP knows for sure that they want Steel. Steel also has the ear of moderates and many Democrats on the line. And that’s not to mention many in Asian-American community there, the block that both Steel and Tran need to win over if they have any chance in November. And, oh yeah, she’s the incumbent.

“Steel is unsurprisingly the favorite in the race and should stay that way barring some sort of unforeseen disaster.”

More on the 45th District race is due to come out soon.