Scott Baugh Overtakes Dave Min In Fundraising in 47th House District Race

Second Quarter FEC filings unveiled this week for House candidates found that former GOP Assemblyman Scott Baugh is now leading Senator Dave Min (D-Orange County) in fundraising for the 2024 47th Congressional District race.

The race over the 47th District, which roughly covers a triangle of Orange County from Seal Beach to Irvine to Laguna Beach grew intense earlier this year following Congresswoman Katie Porter’s entrance into the 2024 Senate race. With the district widely considered a swing district, and Porter barely winning over Baugh in the 2022 race, both Republicans and Democrats in the district quickly entered the race.

While Baugh has been considered the front runner for the GOP since January, the Democrats have been more fractured in the district. Early on, Min and former Congressman Harley Rouda were considered  frontrunners. However, Rouda has since dropped out of the race. Community organizer Joanna Weiss and Board of Equalization member Mike Schaeffer have since joined as major candidates for the Democrats.

Currently, there have been no polls out on the race, with political oddsmakers still listing the race as a toss-up. Fundraising, however, has largely shown that the race has been neck-to-neck. According to the filings released this week, Baugh brought in roughly $550,000 from April to June, with a total of $1,005,695 cash on hand. While Baugh was accused of taking a lot from larger donors, the reports showed that over 80% of Baugh’s donations came from smaller donors in the second quarter.

Baugh outraises Min in Q2

Min, meanwhile, only raised $403,000 in the same quarter, and currently stands with just $705,000 in his coffers at the end of the second quarter. Weiss came in a distant third, raising $409,000 during the quarter, albeit with nearly $100,000 coming from personal loans she made herself. At the end of Q2, she currently has $634,417.

Experts told the Globe on Thursday that Min’s low pull was largely influenced by many poor personal decision made during the quarter, including Min being arrested for a DUI in May.

“Normally, an experienced state Senator would have a good advantage in a race like this, especially since his main opponent hasn’t held elective office since 2000,” explained Helen Fong, an Orange County Political consultant, to the Globe on Thursday. “But there are a lot of factors here. First, this is orange County, and there are still more Republicans here than Democrats think. Especially worrying for them are the ‘quiet’ Republicans who don’t register with the party but still vote that way.”

“Second, obviously, is Min getting a DUI. That is a huge liability, and come election season, ads against him will be pretty stacked with that little incident. Third is that people are just cooling down on Min. There was a lot of excitement in January when he announced, but now as the months went on and the primary still months away, things slowed, especially with excitement over other Democrats in the race. And look at Baugh. He’s going stronger now and has more money to work with.”

“When the main election comes after the primary, the Democrats are shown to be big donors, as combined, they gave more than the Republicans to Baugh. Ever since the blue wave in 2018, the GOP has taken back every district lost in Orange County but this one. Steel and Kim have been locking up neighboring districts for the GOP, so all eyes are here. And by the look at how much Baugh brought in and Min making more mistakes, this is going to be close.”

The first polls on the 47th District race are expected soon.