The 2024 California U.S. Senate Race Schiff v. Garvey: Where It Currently Stands

Since the last update in April, California’s U.S. Senate race has faced a growing number of speed bumps. New polls and campus protests have kept both Congressman Adam Schiff (D-CA) and former pro baseball star Steve Garvey (R) from being quiet and out of the news cycle. With 6 months to go before election day on November 5th, this is where the Senate race stands now:

What have the candidates been up to?

Schiff and Garveywere fairly pretty quiet through most of April. Schiff’s been in and out of Washington with Congressional duties, and Garvey has continued working on his upcoming campaign. But as soon as late April hit, both candidates suddenly found themselves in the limelight.

For Schiff, he made headlines when he was robbed in San Francisco. Specifically, his car was broken into in a parking garage there before a series of speeches and fundraisers, forcing him to go to a few events in street clothes. While he brushed the robbery off and was praised for “rolling with the punches,” the incident undermined things he has said in the past about crime. Experts even noted that if Schiff ever brought up how crime was improving or how more progressive measures are needed, all Garvey would need to do is bring up the incident to discredit him.

Meanwhile, Garvey has been vocal about the Gaza protests occurring across the state. Specifically he said this last month:

“This is terrorism disguised as free speech,” said Garvey in his speech in Los Angeles last month. “The students are making a statement that they probably don’t really understand what it’s about. What they’re saying is: they’re pro-Hamas. They’re pro-terrorists. They’re supporting terrorism.

“These organizations aren’t by kids in dormitories who are making a statement that they probably don’t really understand what it’s about. This is organized support of terrorism. I believe demonstrations that allow people to build encampments that obstruct the pathway to classes, and the opportunity to learn, is terrorism.”

In recent days, Garvey reaffirmed those statements and his support for Israel. Schiff, meanwhile, has been radio silent on the protests. While he is a supporter of Israel, many of his colleagues are against the Gaza war. Not helping matters is the fact that Gaza protestors ruined his victory party on election night in March, causing him to cut his speech short, allowing the protesters to overshadow his win – something he has not forgiven them for.

In short, both suddenly became very busy late last month.

Who is backing who?

No new endorsements have been announced still, with each candidate only bringing with them the endorsements carried over from the primary. However, the number is expected to expand greatly soon, as very few Republicans and right groups have yet to send out endorsements, with Schiff already grabbing most on the left. Schiff would want President Joe Biden and the California Democratic Party on his wishlist, while Garvey may be looking at more subtle endorsements. He has yet to ask former teammates in LA and San Diego, which could give him significant boosts in those areas.

But right now, if any endorsements do happen during many, it will be likely Schiff cleaning up any remaining Democratic lawmakers in California he didn’t get yet, with Garvey getting state and local GOP organizations and reps on his side.

How is polling going?

Well, the PPIC had the first post-primary poll come out this week,  showing that a post-primary Schiff had moved ahead significantly, with 61% of voters in favor of Schiff, 37% in favor of Garvey, and only 2% undecided. These figures are roughly similar to the 2012 Senate race, where Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein defeated Republican candidate Elizabeth Emken 62.5% to 37.5%.

Pollsters told the Globe not to give the PPIC poll too much credence as they are known to be way off, such as their last pre-primary poll showing that Garvey would lose 2nd place to Congresswoman Katie Porter (D-CA), when in reality he beat her by over 1 million votes. However, even with the weighted numbers, the poll showed that Garvey was actually winning some regions, while only being slightly behind in the high population regions of the Inland Empire and San Diego/Orange County. The poll also showed him doing well amongst whites and latinos, as well as having an unusual for a Republican bump in LA support – likely stemming from his Dodger past.

More polls are due out this month from the more reliable polling groups like UC Berkeley IGS, so those numbers should serve as a post-primary baseline going forward.

What is coming up next?

Right now, Schiff is busy in Congress until the summer recess. He still has fundraisers and the like to go to, so he isn’t totally going to be out of the election loop in May. Assuming he isn’t robbed again.

Garvey will likely be more busy. He’s been giving more interviews in recent weeks, even saying how they are going more after independents, disenfranchised Democrats, and undecideds. It’s been a slow rollout, but the campaign is getting him more and more used to the press. Schiff is comfortable with the press and large events, as shown through the debates, and team Garvey wants him to get to that level while Schiff is distracted in Washington.

This May, expect a bit more from Garvey, especially if the protests manage to linger on. He’s still building up his campaign, and we may seem him get more and more out of SoCal for speeches. Or at the very least start going to both base areas and improvement areas. So LA, Inland Empire, Sand Diego, Orange County, and going into California’s breadbasket all the way up to Sacramento. And if he is feeling bold, maybe way North California.

Schiff is in Congressman mode, and likely won’t do much outside of speeches and fundraisers this month, unless he has to respond to something major. If Garvey or someone else can bring something big out, Schiff would need to respond – something he doesn’t want to do. He was mad enough he had to give an official response after the SF luggage incident.

May is likely to still be more on the quiet side, but with everything going on, who knows.

Election day this year will be Tuesday November 5th.