The 2024 California U.S. Senate Race: Where It Currently Stands

Since our last recap by the Globe in November, the 2024 U.S. Senate Race in California has seen a few major changes. While some candidates have dropped out, new polls also show that the big three Democrats have become more like the big two, while the GOP has also gained something of a foothold. With less than three months to go, candidates are working the last few weeks before the holiday break, with everyone expected to go back to 100% after the new year. As of Friday, this is where the race currently stands.

Who is in?

Democrats are down to 14 candidates. The three main Democrats, Congresswoman Barbara Lee (D-CA),  Congresswoman Katie Porter (D-CA), and  Congressman Adam Schiff (D-CA) are still hanging around, although with Schiff and Porter in a much comfortable position than Lee, who is struggling to stay at 4th place in polls. No one really big joined in November, although with the deadline coming, the Democrats may see a few last minute entrants. But no one as big as Lee or Schiff or Porter.

The number of GOP candidates has stayed at 11.  As expected, former Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres First Baseman Steve Garvey remains the top candidate in polls and is still close to overtaking Porter for the wanted second-place position. Attorney and 2022 GOP candidate for Attorney General Eric Early and businessman and Coast Guard veteran James Bradley are still tracking, but are still well behind Garvey, as well as many Democrats.

There are also still three third party candidates, none of whom are appearing in polls.

Who may be in?

Candidates are pretty much set at this point. Four Democrats, two Republicans, and a third party candidate still have paperwork officially filed and can activate it and announce their run, but there is currently no one major in that list.

Unless there is a surprise last minute big name candidate out there, it looks like we have our names for the ballot.

Who is out?

Former Google executive Lexi Reese dropped out in November, ending her campaign after starting it only in July. She never polled higher than 2%, but in this tight of a race, that 2% could be the amount needed to keep someone in or out of the top two finishers in March for the run-off.

While a few minor candidates may jump out of the race in the coming months, all the major ones have too much invested to get out now. Still, that won’t stop the Democratic candidates from trying to get Reese’s endorsement before the election. That’s a powerful machine she has, as well as a lot of potential votes. And in a race this close, any candidate will need that.

Who is backing who?

There was a kind of eerie calm when it came to endorsements in November: They kind of just stopped coming in.

Granted, most lawmakers and political groups have already backed people, so maybe there were only a few left. And there were still a few this month, such as NARAL Pro-Choice deciding to back Lee and Schiff picking some unions up following the end to the Hollywood strikes. GOP endorsements also slowly trickled in, but with many holding off for now until the general. If anything, speculation on who will back up Republicans candidates have become more of a mystery than who will be backing up Democrats.

The big news on this front was the California Democratic Party (CADEM) being split at their convention last month on who to endorse, with no candidate getting the amount needed to win their endorsement. Delegates chose mainly Lee and Schiff, although Porter also had a decent number of votes. But none of them reached that 60% threshold for an endorsement, with Lee getting 41.5% of the vote, Schiff 40.2% of the vote, and Porter 16%. That split was seen by many as not boding well for March, especially Lee, who seems favored by the party but is not liked by most voters.

What is coming up next?

With the candidate deadline coming and endorsements slowing down, the biggest thing to watch in the coming months are the intensified campaigns of all the candidates, as well as where poll numbers will go to.

A new PPIC poll from Mid-November showed Schiff ahead of Porter 21% to 16%, with Garvey the only other candidate breaking 10%. A Schiff-Porter showdown is looking likely, but Garvey and Lee are still pretty close. Garvey, in particular, can make up a lot of ground through more intensified campaigning. But with Reese now out and fewer undecided voters out there, it will be a little harder to do in the coming months.

Ads are also on the rise, and we can expect to see more and more of them up until Primary day. And since all the major candidates have a decent amount of campaign funds, you can expect a lot of them. A Schiff-Porter race is still not a done deal, and roughly three months is a lot of time to build a campaign up. This is nonetheless going to be a crazy winter, with the remaining big candidates riding and dying by the polls and by their appearances, and especially by ads.

The primary election is to be held in less than three months on March 5th.