The Impending End of the 2035 Gas-Powered Car Ban Mandate

The latest chapter of the battle against California’s 2035 gas-powered car ban began last week following EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin saying that he would subject the agency’s approval of those California regulations to congressional scrutiny. Essentially, all those things former President Joe Biden did in December to try and protect the 2035 mandate have been undone.

Since California Governor Gavin Newsom first signed the executive order in September 2020 to make all passenger cars zero emission by 2035, the policy has been in a politically gray area. While the policy launched other states to make similar laws, it soon faced something that Californian-led policies rarely receive – contraction. Some states left the 2035 gas-powered car ban policy, including Virginia last year. Others reacted more strongly, like Wyoming, which is currently trying to ban the sale of all electric car sales in the state by 2035.

For California, the 2035 goal is likewise becoming much less ideal as the sale of all-electric cars has stagnated in the past few years. 2024 electric rates were around 21.4% of all cars sold in the state – with the figure remaining unchanged from 2023. California is also likely to miss the electric vehicle sales goal of 35% by 2026, which will force the state to delay the original 2035 end date. Or the state can change it to include the far more popular hybrid vehicles. Newsom and other California lawmakers are feeling increased pressure to do something about it thanks to the declining sales.

In November 2024, Governor Newsom, faced with president-elect Donald Trump saying he would end the federal EV rebate  resulting in reducing the number of electric cars sold in California, announced he would bring back state rebates to electric cars. While the backlash against that announcement was swift, Newsom stood firm on the decision, even after Trump made good on his promise to end the mandate on the day of his inauguration.

But the thing is electric gar growth can only grow so much, with consumer acceptance likewise being slow. Long charge times, a lack of charging facilities, high battery replacement costs, limited range, high initial costs – the list goes on. And studies have shown that, even with all mandates going full force, only 25% of all cars sold in the U.S. in 2030 will be electric, far below the 44% federal and 68% California goals. In addition, a large number of states and automakers have been fighting back against the mandates over concerns of demand and consumer cost. Toyota said that the mandates are impossible to meet and will likely fall far short of goals. Studies further showed that hybrids are preferred over electric, as many consumers have concerns over charging times, car battery life, and the ease of finding charging stations, especially outside of California.

The end of Newsom’s 2035 gas-powered car ban mandate?

And then there are the consumer polls. In Connecticut, a very blue state, 59% of residents oppose a gas-powered car sales ban. In Washington state, also very blue, 48% oppose Washington’s 2035 mandate as opposed to 38% approving of it. And in California it is changing rapidly. Back in 2022, a poll showed 55% of registered voters in California approving the 2035 mandate, with 39% opposing it. But, with each passing year, Californians are more opposed to it. Rising charge rates, a lack of vehicle choice, and other negatives have made more Californians oppose it than support it.

Those polls just centered around blue states too. Nationwide, polls have shown that 75% of Americans are against any kind of gas-powered vehicle ban.

The overall EV market is growing naturally, seeing sales shoot up by 7.3% last year. People do want electric cars. But forcing people to buy them without any kind of transition plan has led to California’s stalled market. Industry experts have said that the smart move would have been a transitionary mandate, getting people to switch to hybrids to have them be more used to more electric vehicles and give time for electric car technology to develop. Then a switchover to electric when things like charging times and battery technology become more palatable.

The hybrid market has seen a big leap of organic growth. While the EV market grew by 7.3%, hybrid sales shot past electric. Even more, hybrid car sales have been so high that dealers have been running out of vehicles. It’s almost as if consumers want to get off gas and oil dependency, but need the time to help make the transition… which Governor Gavin Newsom and the 2035 mandate promptly ignored, as hybrids are part of the ban too.

“That’s what California is ignoring,” Veronica Deer, an auto industry analyst who focuses on the electric market, told the Globe Tuesday. “They’re ignoring the fact that the market has been heading to electric anyway. But they did not give people more time to get used to the idea and to have electric car technology get more to their liking. Hybrids have done that, but California did not include them in those plans. If they allowed hybrid cars to be sold after 2035, people would not have been so upset.

“Now, there are a lot of different factors into why more and more Californians are opposing the mandates. But not including hybrids in there was a fatal mistake. California ignored that the market was going electric and people were gradually warming to the idea through hybrids. All the state had to do was give some incentives or do some campaigns to push for electric and hybrid cars to accelerate growth. Base it on consumer demand and make them more cheaper and a better option over time. Instead they went full on nanny state, told people what to do, and didn’t give that adjustment period.”

That brings this all back around to the EPA’s waiver request. Should the Trump administration succeed and undo the mandate in California, the hybrid and electric market might actually start doing better.

“Once you stop forcing people to adopt it and gradually introduce them again as better options, you’ll see sales start to go up again. Hybrid for sure,” added Deer. “And we’ve seen this in our own industry. We tried to force electric car keys and remotes, and we tried to force power windows in the past. Consumers rebelled, so we backed off a bit, people got used to it, liked it, and accepted it. And this isn’t like switching over from unleaded gas, or making seatbelts mandatory, or making backup cameras mandatory. That was all pure safety.

“No. You want more people to drive electric? You need to give them time. You need time for improvements. And you can’t force people to do it. California forgot how people work and think about things. They barreled through based on environmental policies but didn’t think about the people. And now the federal government is looking to correct that.”