The Increased Likelihood of a California Papal Visit

The 2025 Papal Conclave is expected to pick a new Pope in the coming days. While there are many frontrunners, including Cardinal Luis Tagle of the Philippines, Cardinal Pietro Parolin of Italy, Cardinal Peter Erdo of Hungary, and Cardinal Mateo Zuppi of Italy, there are a handful of candidates that, as of Monday evening, no one has any idea on how voting is going.

However, the elected Pope will bring in California’s best chance in nearly 40 years to have a papal visit. While California had some ties with the Vatican during the papacies of Benedict XVI and Francis, there were no official visits. As there are 12 million Catholics in California, or roughly 30% of the population of the state, the lack of an official visit seemed unusual to many. Californian officials instead made visits to Vatican City to meet the Pope, like when Governor Gavin Newsom, who identifies as Catholic, visited Pope Francis last year.

The last papal visit to California was in 1987, when Pope John Paul II visited Los Angeles, Monterey, Carmel, and San Francisco. His visits were actually a bit of a mini economic boom, as although they lasted only a few days, the influx of visitors brought in a lot of business. He even held mass at Laguna Seca Raceway and Dodger Stadium.

Despite California being heavily Catholic, a Pope hasn’t been to the Golden State since, with more recent Popes preferring to stay in New York, Washington, and other locations on the East Coast. But the next Pope brings an increased likelihood for a California visit.

First, a U.S. visit is all but assured. The U.S. still has a large Catholic population and many Presidential candidates in 2028 are Roman Catholic, including Newsom and Vice President J.D. Vance.

More importantly, California is set to be on the world stage at several points in the late 2020’s, with the big one being Los Angeles hosting the Olympics in 2028. The state will be prepared for major visits, with a 2026 or 2027 Papal visit possibly serving as a ‘test run’ of security L.A., San Francisco, and other cities would also likely jump at the chance for a Papal visit not only because of the prestige, but the major short-term economic bump that such a visit would bring similar to 1987.

Who becomes Pope is a big factor too. As one of the leading candidates is Filipino, he may want to visit the area with the largest Filipino population in the U.S. With 1.6 million Filipino-Americans in the state, concentrated in the Bay Area and Los Angeles, California, a Tagle Pope may see the Golden State as a good first U.S. visit option.

On the other hand, California as an option for a Papal visit does have drawbacks. While geography is a factor, there is also the importance of New York and Washington on the world stage through the U.N. and White House.

The Globe contacted several Bishops in California, as well as the Vatican for a potential California visit. The offices of the bishops didn’t want to speculate on such a visit, while the Vatican response simply said that they couldn’t respond with a Papal election currently going on.

However, with no visit going on nearly 40 years and a growing Catholic population, California is becoming more of an attractive option for a Papal visit and could prove to be a huge even for the state economically.