The Proposition 50 Exodus

There was an interesting Letter to the Editor in the Los Angeles Times over the weekend. In commenting on Proposition 50, the ballot measure to alter congressional district lines, the letter writer noted the disparity of California Democratic representatives in Congress to Republicans both now and if Prop. 50 passes and delivers five more Democratic congress members as predicted. He compared that to the percentages of Democratic and Republican representatives in Texas, the state that started the redistricting wars.

He also offered a possible consequence if Prop. 50 passes to reinforce Democratic dominance in the state. More Republicans and businesses might leave California.

Could Proposition 50 continue to drive the country to what I called in a previous commentary a two -state solution in which partisan voters choose to gather with their own political kind?

The letter said California’s congressional representation currently consists of 83% Democrats while Republicans make up 17%. If Proposition 50 passes with the expected change in five congressional seats the numbers would be 92% Democrats and 8% GOP. Meanwhile, the Texas numbers before and after redistricting to favor Republicans by five seats would increase GOP dominance in the Lone Star State but not nearly as dramatically as the California situation. (Texas now 59%-41% GOP; after 62%-38% GOP.)

The argument of dominance by one party’s congressional standing is not new. Often Massachusetts is brought up in debate because all nine members of the delegation are Democrats. In fact, a number of states are represented by one party in Congress.

The one-party dominance might prompt debate for either proportional representation or a federal independent redistricting commission to even the playing field. But that discussion is for another time.

Let’s go back a few months to a report issued by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) on the demographic changes in the Golden State. The blog report on the study was titled, “California’s Republican Exodus.”

The report stated: According to the data, voters who moved out of California between the 2020 and 2024 presidential elections have a strong Republican lean. Recent departures (39%) are much more likely to be Republican compared to California registrants overall (25%). By contrast, those who moved into California during that period are disproportionately Democratic (54%, compared to 45% of Californians overall).

The authors noted that while there are several reasons for migrations to other states, partisanship plays a key role.

A Prop. 50 win is another example of state Democratic leaders using their majority muscle to solidify Democratic political dominance. Recall one example when the legislature declared that citizen ballot measures could only appear in a November General Election. The change was inspired by Democratic partisans because the General Election provides a larger turnout by Democratic voters meaning a better opportunity to gain the outcome Democratic leaders want.

The idea that Republicans are at best tolerated in the state was reinforced by leading Democratic gubernatorial candidate Katie Porter’s explosive interview with a CBS Reporter in which Porter indicated she didn’t need Trump voters to win the governorship. Her meaning: This is a Democratic state; Republicans can’t win. Critics have translated the moment as Porter suggesting she doesn’t need to represent Republicans or simply that Republicans don’t count in California.

Whatever Porter’s intention, the inflammatory language and a Proposition 50 win could boost the frustration of GOP voters with the Democrats tighter grip on the state’s politics in which they already control. The result could convince more GOP oriented voters to say goodbye to California, reinforcing the findings in the earlier PPIC study.