New IGS Poll: Frequent California Voters are More White, Black, Asian Over Latino

A new UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies (IGS) released this week found that frequent voters in California tend to be more white, older, and wealthier than the state average, despite the state voter registration percentage steadily going up in recent years.

According to the IGS “Poll of California Registered Voters about Voter Concerns with the Large Differences in Voting Participation Rates Across Different Segments of the Electorate,” only around 4 in 10 voters in the state cast ballots in 5 of the last 7 statewide elections. Of these regular voters, 71% identified as white, 14% Latino, and the rest as black, Asian, or other listed races. Compared to a 2022 Census estimate showing that California is 34% white alone, 40% Latino, 16% Asian, 6% black and 1.5% Native American, the demographics between the frequent voting populace and California’s current racial makeup is skewed to an extent.

Meanwhile, 4 in 10 voters identified as being infrequent voters, those who vote only once or twice in the previous 7 statewide elections. According to the IGS poll, this group is around 33% white while also being 40% Latino. Oddly enough, those percentages are almost the same as the current population.

Around 2/3 voters who voted frequently highlighted the fact that voting was important, with 65% saying that they voted regularly to “stand up for the candidates and issues I believe are important”, 64% to “influence the direction of state and local government” and 62% because “voting is an important civic duty”. Conversely, 3 in 10 voters who didn’t vote often said that they “didn’t know enough about the candidates or the issues to vote”, with another 3 in 10 saying that they were simply “not that interested”. Another 3 in 10 also noted that they didn’t vote because they thought that “special interests and big money are controlling things“.

On a different note, total voter registration has reached new highs, with 82.3% of the eligible voting population now registered to vote. The percentage has gone up greatly, with 2013 statistics giving it as 76% and 2003 statistics showing it to be at 69%. As the national average was only 69% last year, California is currently well above that mark. However, despite the high number of registered voters, having them vote frequently, as shown by Tuesday’s poll, has been a struggle.

Voter demographics in CA

Analysts noted on Wednesday that the poll showed that there is a night and day difference between the two types of voters in California and that the Latino voting bloc, which has been highly touted in recent elections like some 2022 Assembly races and the 2022 Los Angeles Mayoral election, has failed to solidify, with voters skewing more white as a result.

“The poll results dramatize the differences that we knew existed,” said Berkeley IGS poll director Mark DiCamillo. “The differences are just profound. It’s two very different worlds, The state has invested in trying to make voting easier. That’s what the state is doing when it’s sending out ballots early,” he added.

“What still needs to happen is the communication of the value of voting to voters. And that’s the task ahead.”

Washington-based voting Analyst Kelsey Romanov told the Globe on Wednesday that politics and policies are partly to blame for the big gap.

“Many Latinos aren’t voting in California and Texas and other border states because of how they’re being targeted,” said Romanov. “Younger Latinos tend to vote more than older Latinos, while older whites vote more than younger whites. So when it comes time to get people to vote, they usually target younger people, so that explains at least part of it.”

“Basically campaigns are targeting voters who they think will show up rather than  get new voters, which means older Latinos usually for the latter. And, for California, many Latinos do vote. It’s just that  when these polls come out, they show that so many more can.”

“It’s frustrating for both parties, because it is a big bloc. Nationally, Latinos tend to vote more Democratic in general. But it can really vary too. More and more older Latinos and second generation Latinos have been voting Republican in recent years. Many are Catholic with strong stances on the abortion issue, and they don’t like that California is a sanctuary state. That being said, the majority still vote Democratic, despite many not liking Biden all that much due to border issues.”

“This big gap in the poll is largely due to politics, but also how candidates are approaching voters. They’re going for likely voters ahead of more uncharted areas, so that means focusing more on white, Asian, and black voters rather than Latino voters despite them being the largest demographic bloc in the state.”

More polls showing where voters are standing before the 2024 election are expected soon.