First Poll On Senator Laphonza Butler Shows Voters To Be Extremely Polarized

In the first poll conducted on the support for newly minted Senator Laphonza Butler (D-CA), California voters, roughly only about 1/3rd of voters gave her any support, with the rest either being unsure or viewing her in a negative light.

Earlier this week, Butler, the President of Emily’s List since 2021, former union organizer of California’s 400,000-member SEIU Local 2015, and a former Regent of the University of California, was chosen by Governor Gavin Newsom as the next Senator from California, replacing the recently deceased Dianne Feinstein. Newsom’s pick was seen by many as controversial, as Butler has no elected experience, is a resident of Maryland  before switching it back to California only days before being sworn in, and headed up a non-profit that is not viewed very well by some.

Perhaps most controversial has been her not saying on whether or not she will run for Senate in 2024. While Newsom has said that the position is a caretaker position, he did not ask her to not run in 2024 when he tapped her for Senator, and with Butler not responding either way. As a result, Congresswomen Barbara Lee (D-CA) and Katie Porter (D-CA), as well as Congressman Adam Schiff (D-CA), the three major Democratic candidates in the 2024 Senate race, have been up in arms about Butler not saying that she won’t run in 2024, leading to a potential chaotic scenario where she joins the already crowded race as an incumbent Senator.

Despite these faults, Butler was sworn-in earlier this week and later attended the memorial service for Dianne Feinstein in San Francisco. However, despite going from little to national name-recognition in the span of only a week, many in California continue to be conflicted. While a formal poll shows her support within the confines of the 2024 Senate race has yet to be released, a Data Viewpoint poll released on Friday found preliminary numbers in terms of support for Butler – and they aren’t very good.

According to the poll, only 34.6% of voters support Butler as the new Senator, with 32.7% opposing her and 32.7% responding that they didn’t know, an indication of a lack of recognition. Further, another poll showed that more people wanted either Secretary of State Shirley Weber or San Francisco Mayor London Breed as the next Senator under Newsom’s restrictive  black female candidates only perameters.

The poll, overall, shows that only about a third of Californians are supportive of Butler, with an almost perfect split into thirds of what Californians think of her. Experts on Friday told the Globe that the results of the poll aren’t very surprising and show that Butler running in 2024 would be a big mistake on her part.

“This is only one poll taken during all of this happening, so it is a bit more on the reactionary side since she hasn’t done anything yet,” said LA-based pollster Angie Friedman. “But, with that being said, California voters initial reaction to her could not have been much worse. We were all expecting a majority of Californians not knowing who she was. But, as the poll gave a description of her, that shifted very negatively. That doesn’t really bode well. She is also not being seen well as many as she hasn’t said that she won’t run in 2024. She’s making everyone panic, and this is only hurting her long-term.”

“She isn’t the worst pick in the world, as she still has the support of at least 1/3rd of Californians. But that isn’t a great start, especially if she wants another 6 years on to her Senate length. If she does go for it, the next major poll including her in the Senate vote with the other major candidates will be very interesting. Will she be a spoiler, have a fighting chance, or prove to be a bust? We’ll find out then. Right now, with this poll, it isn’t a good sign.”