Steve Garvey: The Republican Wild Card

Since January, almost all the coverage of the 2024 U.S. Senate race has been on three major candidates: Congresswoman Barbara Lee (D-CA),  Congresswoman Katie Porter (D-CA), and  Congressman Adam Schiff (D-CA) . They have been by far the top candidates in terms of donations, endorsements, and where they place in polls. Other Democrats have occasionally made headlines, such as former tech executive Lexi Reese who has been a masterful fundraiser, but in polls they generally don’t go above 2 or 3 percent.

For the first three quarters of the year, GOP candidates didn’t do much better than those tertiary Democrats. Lawyer Eric Early did have an impressive early poll lead in the double digits, but has since settled in to single digit territory. He also has by far the most endorsements amongst any Republican, albeit with most coming from County Republican organization. Businessman James Bradley also made waves by moving ahead of Early in some polls, but as they have each gotten an average of between 3 and 7 points in every poll since June, it’s not saying all that much. While both are good candidates, the GOP needed a name candidate who could fundraise and go the distance against the top three Democrats.

While often rumored as a candidate, it wasn’t until early last month that the GOP got a candidate who could potentially scuttle the all-Democrat path ahead – former Los Angeles Dodger and San Diego Padre all-star Steve Garvey. While not as big a name as other celebrity California Republican politicians of the past like Arnold Schwarzenegger and Sonny Bono, Garvey came in with dedicated bases of support in LA and San Diego, as well as more offbeat blocs of support, such as those from baseball fans, that could reach beyond party lines and attract the coveted independent and undecided voters.

Many Democrats dismissed Garvey as just another Republican entering the race last month. According to some experts the Globe talked with on Wednesday, Democrats saw him as just another minor dent in the number of votes going to someone other than Porter, Schiff, or Lee.

“He was seen as just another Early or Bradley, but with maybe another point or two in the polls because of his fundraising experience,” said said Matt Saunders, a political consultant who helps advise candidates from entertainment and athletic fields, to the Globe.

However, in the last month, Garvey has quickly not only become the top Republican in the race, but one of the top candidates period. The last two major polls have shown Garvey in third place with 10% of the vote, now ahead of Lee, one of the three major Democrats. As of the latest poll, he is only six points behind Schiff and three points, the margin-of-error, behind Porter.

With Garvey now a bona fide force to be reckoned with, Democrats have now begun shifting rhetoric away from each other and back towards the GOP. However, either way is going to prove harmful to the Democrats in the long-term.

Garvey and the GOP

“Either way, Democrats are going to lose face here,” added Stephanie Lewis, a pollster in Southern California. “They get two Dem candidates in, and those two are going to waste tens of millions going after each other through most of 2024 and show just how divided Democrats are. If it is one Democrat against Garvey, yeah they still get the seat unless something crazy happens, but they are hurt because they beat out a few of their golden candidates. Oh, and if [Garvey] does well enough, it could show the Democrats losing ground overall.”

For the GOP, the next few months are critical in the lead up to the March primary. While a win in November 2024 is extremely difficult, a win in March is becoming more and more likely. And there are several signs to watch for.

“One is the polls,” continued Saunders. “Gotta keep an eye on them. Garvey has been moving up, and if he starts getting into that second place territory, both Schiff and Porter, who have sunk a ton of money and their future political careers into this, are not going to be happy.

“Two is fundraising. New SEC totals for the quarter will come out in December, and where Garvey stands with money will be critical. To be competitive he needs at least as much as Lee, so we are talking at least a million dollars. Schiff and Porter have a bunch more, but he can also easily rack up more donations as needed. He just needs that threshold and a big number to draw in support.

“Speaking of, three is bringing in more support. Getting more from the GOP is good, but he needs more branching out to independents, undecideds, and maybe some one the fence baseball fans. You said getting former teammates involved could help, and yeah, it can. If he can reach out to Latinos especially, he can get a solid boost of support. Female voters are big for him too to get, and there he can work in his non-profit experience to draw more in.

“Four is policy, as he needs a more clear vision as well as good counters to arguments that the Democrats have thrown out. And five is to bring together a unified Republican front. Again, Early and Bradley are great, and in any other year, they would be going for that outside shot of getting one of the primary spots. But Garvey is winning a lot of Republicans over. If both throw their support behind him, that is at least another easy five points for Garvey. Plus the GOP can claim a unified candidate, something which the Democrats are very much fractured on right now. A GOP unified Garvey could potentially start leading in the polls. In fact, that is very likely. Democrats would be humiliated and the GOP would get some good press.

“You said it. He is a wild card in the election as the top Republican. And right now, he is the only Republican these Democratic candidates fear.”