Registered GOP Voters Overtake Registered Democrats in Crucial Orange County District

According to both the Orange County Registrar of Voters and the Orange County Register, the number of registered Republican voters in the 47th Congressional District in Orange County over took the number of registered Democratic voters this week in the crucial swing district.

The 47th District, which forms a rough triangle going from Seal Beach to Laguna Beach to Northeastern Irvine, is one of the most sought after Districts in the Country because of it being such a toss up. The district is currently held by outgoing Congresswoman Katie Porter (D-CA). Porter narrowly defeated former Assemblyman and Orange County Republican Chairman Scott Baugh in 2022 51.7% to 48.3%. With such a close race, thanks in part to Congressional redistricting, Porter opted to run for the U.S. Senate in 2024 than try and retain her House seat. However, Porter finished a distant third in the Senate primary in March, leading to a wide open lame duck Congressional race.

As the district is the last of the big four taken by Democrats in the 2018 election not yet taken back by the GOP, considerable resources from both parties have been put into the election this year. And with Porter out and both parties fighting to be the majority party in the House once again, it has been even crazier than normal. The GOP candidate this year is Baugh, with the Democrats opting for Senator Dave Min (D-Orange County). Both candidates have had a constant back and forth in the polls since last year, with new scandals putting one over the other. For example, Min got a DUI last year, which hurt him greatly in support. However, Baugh had slips of his own, such as backlash from “wokeism” comments he made in September of last year.

Places like the Cook Political Report said that the District was still leaning towards Democrats earlier this year. Despite that outlook from many outlets, polls showed a different story of Baugh actually being ahead by a few points. While voters were affected by many factors such as the economy, cost of living, crime, homelessness, and affordable housing, the 47th also included the unusual factor of Min’s 2023 DUI being the deciding factor for many. As a result, Baugh has had a constant 1-2 point lead over Min all summer. Even the bump in support that the entrance of Kamala Harris as the Democratic Presidential candidate in other districts didn’t register in the 47th. The latest polls show that Baugh is now three points ahead of Min going into the final weeks of the race, with only 5% of voters remaining undecided.

That all lead to Thursday where it was reported that the majority number of party Registered voters shifted from Democrats to Republicans. Data from the Orange County Registrar of Voters showed that Democrats continued to have a narrow edge in registered voters, outnumbering Republicans in the district in July by 1,909 voters. But, data pulled by the Orange County Register on Thursday found that the numbers had shifted considerably in less than 3 months, with Republicans now being ahead by 64 voters.

In 2022, #CA47 leaned Democrat by 7,678 voters. Now, Republicans hold a 64-vote advantage. Voters want leadership that will fight for the issues that matter in D.C. It’s time to see the mission through!
Read my press release here: https://t.co/7MU6ejKHMy

— Scott Baugh (@ScottBaughCA47) October 10, 2024

Overall, Democrats and Republicans now account for 34.9% each of the district’s 453,788 registered voters, with 23.9% still being no party preference. The change also showed a significant change since the 2022 election, when Democrats outnumbered Republicans in the district by 7,678 voters and Baugh had lost to Porter by around 9,000 votes.

On Thursday and Friday, GOP lawmakers and political leaders reacted positively to the shift, while Democrats played down the change saying that Min still had the advantage.

“I am not surprised to see a surge in Republican registration in the district,” said Baugh in a statement on Friday. “We have been talking to the voters about important issues that matter – securing our border, reducing crime, tackling the fentanyl epidemic, and addressing the crippling levels of inflation in our country. The momentum of our campaign this year has been very, very strong. I feel great going into the final weeks until election day.”

National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Ben Petersen added that “While Democrats made Californians’ wallets into ATMs for big government spending and their streets into a playground for criminals, Republicans offer a common-sense approach to secure borders, fight crime and halt inflation. The result is this surge in GOP support as fed-up Orange County families fight back.”

In addition, Malik Griffin, a Los Angeles polling analyst, told the Globe on Friday that “Democrats keep insisting that they are ahead in the 47th District. But this news of GOP voters now outnumbering Democrats, as well as polling, is showing a different story. Democrats can only hope there are enough Republicans and independents who don’t support Trump heading to the ballot and then voting down ballot accordingly. A lot of places are now saying that it is back to being a toss-up though. While good news for the Republicans, this race isn’t over. Both sides need to give 110% until November 5th still.

“But overall? It is slowly going to a Republican trajectory. That can’t be disproven.”

Final polls for the district will be in by late October.