Rep. Mike Levin (D) Falls To Narrow One-Point Lead Over Republican Matt Gunderson

A new poll released over the weekend found that Congressman Mike Levin (D-CA) is currently only one point ahead of GOP challenger and 2022 State Senate candidate Matt Gunderson in the 49th Congressional District, making the race a late edition to the list of close House races in the state.

The 49th District, which stretches along the Pacific coast from Southern Orange County to Northern San Diego, has, for years, been a constant House flipping target for the GOP. Since being elected in 2018, Levin has steadily declined in his overall winning percentage in each election. During his first House election in 2018, Levin beat then-Board of Equalization member Diane Harkey 56.4% to 43.6%. This gap fell to 53/1% to 46.9% in 2020 against Brian Maryott, and only fell further in 2022 when it was 52.6% against 47.4%, with only roughly 15,000 votes separating the two.

With Republican voters increasing in the district, the 49th District was once again a target for the GOP to take back in 2024. During the primary in March, Levin won with 51% as the only Democrat, with Republican candidates garnering the other 49%, foreshadowing an even closer election than 2022. Gunderson’s record also showed that a close election was likely going to happen, as he narrowly his state Senate run in 2022 against Senator Catherine Blakespear (D-Encinitas) by only around 3,000 votes.

However, over the next several months, Levin shot ahead. A poll in June found Levin scoring a 50%, with Gunderson 10 points back at 40%, with 10% undecided. Many of Levin’s decisions in the summer only kept up his popularity, like being one of the first House members to come out and ask Biden to not run for reelection following the June Presidential debate. By September, the Cook Political Report put his District as a “likely D”, the 49th was no longer listed amongst the closest California House races, and polls put Levin ahead as much as 12 points.

The race proved to be far from over though. Gunderson saw a surge of independent voters favor him following the end of the Harris nomination honeymoon period. The 49th, which had been characterized as a “sleeper district” seemed to have woke up. The Democratic House Super PAC, House Majority PAC, suddenly threw in $1.56 million in ads for the race in early October. This then grew to $1.8 million, dwarfing the $1.3 million Democrats had spent on the race to that point. Gunderson’s backing of abortion rights specifically won over many voters, with Levin specifically challenging this in debates. Gunderson’s focus on inflation also won over many voters in the past few months, with Levin scrambling to gain back ground.

A closer race than expected

This led to the new poll this weekend, showing that Levin’s lead has now fallen to a single point, with Levin at 46%, Gunderson at 45% and 11% undecided. Independents have been a major force behind this shift, with 50% being in Gunderson’s favor compared to 33% for Levin. Even more, Levin has now outspent Gunderson by $1.3 million in the race, with Democrats pulling funding from other needed races to the 49th to try and stop Gunderson’s surge. What was a near-lock for the Democrats during the summer is now suddenly a toss-up.

National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) Spokesperson Ben Petersen said in a statement on Monday that “Extreme liberal Mike Levin claimed inflation is ‘overblown’ and ignored the open borders crisis. Matt Gunderson is surging because Southern California voters appreciate his common-sense campaign to lower taxes and secure the border.”

Those watching the race closely in Southern California also noted that the race can now go either way.

“If you told Mike Levin supporters back in July that he might lose the race, you would have been laughed at,” San Diego area pollster Gale Martin told the Globe Monday. “But Gunderson snuck up and snuck up quickly. Levin did have that Harris momentum behind him, and that masked all the gains Gunderson was making on abortion. And you’re right, the economy too. So by the time the hype over the debate last month faded, and candidates went back to their own races more, Gunderson was suddenly this bullet train.

“That’s why the Democrat’s PAC suddenly threw all that money into the race at such a late stage. It’s why Levin has been more attacking. Gunderson suddenly has a real shot again. This poll proves that. Especially with voters on the fence about both candidates.

“This is why you can’t rely solely on projections and ‘the numbers’ for an election. Nathan Silver did that in 2016 and said Hillary would win, and Clinton’s own campaign manager did too, and both had meltdowns that night. You forget about local polling and quiet grassroots efforts, and going after other issues when a bigger national issue is prevalent.  Gunderson burst out and Levin wasn’t ready for that. And that’s why we are within a point now. But keep an eye on the 11%. They can go either way still. Early voting is here, and that’s both candidates now are giving it all.”