CADEM Unveils Five GOP-Held Congressional Seats They Will Target In 2024

A California Democratic Party (CADEM) e-mail to donors on Wednesday revealed the five main Republican Congressional members that they are set to target in 2024 and try to flip their seats: John Duarte (R-CA), David Valadao (R-CA), Mike Garcia (R-CA), Ken Kalvert (R-CA), and Michelle Steel (R-CA).

In the 2022 elections, Republican Californian House members continued to make gains in Congress, gaining one seat while, due in part to redistricting, the Democrats lost two. The wins in the tight Californian races turned out to be one of the deciding factors in the House swinging back to a Republican majority, with some races even surprising longtime-Democratic commentators.

However, not all the wins came easy. For many candidates, they were in districts favored for Democrat candidates, with more registered Democrats being listed in the district than Republicans. Disaffected Democrats and a large number of independent and unaffiliated voters leaned right, helping make up the difference. In some cases, it came down to only a few thousand votes, such as Congressman Valadao defeating Assemblyman Rudy Salas (D-Bakersfield) by only 3,132 votes in the 22nd district. In Duarte’s case, less than 600 votes separated him him from his Democratic candidate, with his win not becoming official until December.

Meanwhile, the Democrats had many close calls as well, most notably with Congresswoman Katie Porter (D-CA) narrowly winning her Orange County district over Scott Baugh by around 9,000 votes and becoming one of the last House remnants in California of the 2018 blue wave.

With California once again listed as a key state for the GOP in 2024 to keep, and even make gains in, the House, Democrats have begun prepping early and highlighting the swing districts where they can possibly make gains in California next year. This worry led to CADEM to release the five main targets for 2024 on Wednesday. In the e-mail, CADEM noted that only 38,022 votes were the combined difference in the Duarte, Valadao, Garcia, Kalvert, and Steel races in 2022, with only 5 seats being the difference between Democratic and Republican control of the House nationally.

The California Republican Party (CAGOP) immediately issued an alert on subject and is expected to soon unveil who their likely targets are. While Katie Porter’s seat is  all but assured to be on that list, both due to the number of Republicans rising in the district, Porter nearly losing there last year, and Porter leaving the seat at the end of the term to focus on her Senate run, others, like Congressman Mike Levin’s (D-CA) 49th district are expected to be fought over as well.

“Right now the Democrats are really feeling the heat from 2024,” Helen Fong, an Orange County Political consultant, told the Globe on Wednesday. “Here in Orange County, they thought that blue wave in 2018 was going to flip the county, but it’s rapidly becoming red once again. Elsewhere, Duarte really lucked out in his district, but hey, a win is a win. But in 2024 he is really going to have to bolster down, but that should be easier with a term under his belt.

“Valadao has always been on the line, but he manages to get that last minute dash of support. Garica is also in trouble, but then again, Christy Smith has always assured her supporters of victory and proceeded to lose to him three times in a row. Democrats need anyone but her at this point. She’s party poison. Steel is in really good shape, with the new district being a good fit for her, having gained votes since last time. And Kalvert, he should be fine barring some big shake up.”

“The Democrats know what is at stake in 2024, and they are going after any possible district they can feasibly win, as they know the GOP wave is probably going to continue to roll on into 2024 with a possible House gain, Senate takeover and even Presidential takeback in the cards.. And that all includes taking these crucial House seats in California. A few might be possible, but they also need to defend several seats and focus on other states like New York and Georgia to keep seats there. They’re really worried about the GOP in control of everything, so they’re fighting now.”

A list of seats that the GOP will focus on taking back in California is likely to be unveiled soon.