Democrats, GOP Have Poured Record Setting Amounts Into House Races This Year

New campaign ad spending data that was paid out by U.S. House campaigns between September 11th and October 10th was released on Monday, showing many record-setting amounts being spent on races across California by both Democrats and Republicans.

Since the primary election in March, both parties have been steadily increasing spending in key swing districts in California. These have included the San Joaquin Valley 13th and 22nd districts, the LA County 27th district, the Inland Empire 41st District, the Orange County 45th and 47th Districts, and most recently, the San Diego County 49th district. All of those races have candidates within a few points of each other according to the most recent polls, with undecided voters representing the percentage that tips the balance in each race. As such, fundraising and spending have been high.

For example, candidates have had fundraising quarters go into the multi-millions before party funds are added in. In the 13th district,  Congressman John Duarte (R-CA) and his challenger, former Congressman Adam Gray (D) raised over $3 million and $2.6 million respectively during Q2 2024, with both expected to report in way more in Q3. Congressman David Valadao (R-CA) and former Assemblyman Rudy Salas (D) in the 22nd had even more come in with $3.4 million and $3.1 million respectively in Q2, with both spending around $1.5 million each. And even more is the 27th District whose 2024 Q2 fundraising came out to $5.8 million for Democrat George Whitesides and $4.3 million for Congressman Mike Garcia (R-CA), with spending each around $2 million.

Down south, in the L.A. market, it somehow got even higher. $5.7 million for Congressman Ken Calvert (R-CA) and a whopping $7 million for his challenger Will Rollins, with both spending $2.2 million. The open seat race in the 47th was also high, with Senator Dave Min (D-Orange County) bringing in $3.6 million and Republican Scott Baugh getting $2.9 million.

But that is all Q2 data. More recent data shows even crazier totals. Labor Day weekend alone had $148 million worth of ads (which includes all races) being spent on in California, one of the highest in the nation. The late-season sudden competitiveness of the 49th District and Congressman Mike Levin (D-CA) suddenly being vulnerable led the national party to suddenly throw in $1.56 million all at once for ads alone. And on Monday, new data by Adimpact, which only shows ad spending between the month of September 11th and October 10th, showed record-setting figures. For the 13th district, Democrats spent $7.1 million on ads for Gray, with the GOP spending $3.8 million on Duarte. For the Democrats, it was the 5th most expensive District being spent on in the entire country.

Record spending on ads

In fact, two more races were in the top 20 in overall spending in the country, with the 27th District having Democrats and Republicans spend $4.7 million and $4.2 million respectively, and the 22nd District  be at $4.4 million for the Dems and $5.5 million for the GOP. However, in most races, fundraising and spending is either close or more largely in the Democrats favor, showing more of a concern from Democrats in all close races. And, despite spending overall more on ads in the close races, all races are still within a few points. In many cases, like the 47th District for Katie Porter’s soon-to-be old seat, Democrats have spent millions more only to still be down in the polls.

And while down-balloting is also a growing concern, especially with the Latino vote generally drifting towards the GOP in the last several months and Trump slowly closing the narrow gap, each candidate still having plenty in the war chest for late season ads means final month spending is still going to be extremely high.

“Everyone is dumping funds into ads when and where they can get them in,” explained new media consultant Dylan Garner to the Globe on Tuesday. “Ad buys have been everywhere targeting demos of course. But if you are looking in general, you know they are going after the World Series and football games for sure. You catch a wide swath of people there as rich or poor, black or white, Republican or Democrat, they’ll be watching those. Especially with the Dodgers in the playoffs. More are going to YouTube ads, TikTok, and other places you generally get younger voters. Whitesides in particular has been big on digital ads. Every candidate is everywhere on social media for the same reason.

“This new data that came out, yeah, not surprising. Well, the amount is. For most districts, these are by far the most expensive races ever seen there. California has had high early voting and by-mail turnout, but those ads are there because some still decide until the last minute. And it may not seem like it, but many voters still read through the issues and give a good look at the candidates. Hearing a radio ad or seeing a billboard, or seeing a commercial before going could be the tipping point on thinking one way or another. That’s how close it is. Look at those close polling figures. It can make a difference. That’s why all this spending.”

Q3 2024 spending figures are due to come out soon.