The Critical Latino Vote and California

Amidst the many, many factors across California this election, the biggest in terms of demographics has been the Latino vote. In past elections, Latinos largely sided with Democrats. Nearly 50 years ago, in 1976, Jimmy Carter had 82% of the Latino vote in California. 20 years later, little changed, with Bill Clinton nabbing 79% in the state. Latinos, largely first and second generation immigrants, didn’t like Republicans more often backing stricter immigration policies or boosting deportations.

While many immigrants still came into the country from Mexico and Latin American countries, the older Latino generations settled down, with immigration no longer a top priority for many. So by 2016, when Trump came in with strong deportation promises, Hillary Clinton only got Latino support around 60%. Joe Biden did better in 2020, getting just over 70%, but polls have shown that Harris has gone below Clinton levels. For the last few months, polls have given Harris Latino support in the mid 50s. While in California those figures are slightly higher, it still shows a remarkable decline for Democrats and Latino support.

Republicans have appealed to many Latinos. Many have businesses, and like the GOPs economic plans. With many Latinos being Catholic and opposed to abortion, the Democrats stance on abortion has worried many. It has all just built up considerably, with many GOP registration drives being majority Latino.

“I know a lot of people are surprised at this shift, but honestly, they really shouldn’t be,” explained voter outreach coordinator Luis Valdez to the Globe on Tuesday. “There’s a lot of second and third and fourth generation Latinos now who are starting to agree on the immigration policies since it doesn’t affect them as much. Plus what you said. There are just so many other issues out there affecting Latinos. Democrats had been playing the one note on immigration for so long, and the GOP came in and said like ‘Hey, you all have businesses. You want to get homes. We can help with that.’ And then there was the abortion angle too. As newer generations got more ingrained, became more of the melting pot, that’s when it started happening.

“The same thing happened with German immigrants in the late 1800’s too. Republicans saw general German voter apathy and began courting them. Teddy Roosevelt was big on it. So they had generally gone Democratic but became a big Republican support group. Democrats forgot that history lesson.”

This year, both Harris and Trump have been courting the Latino vote closely, with Trump even having a Coachella rally partially to help shore up turnout in nearby Nevada and Arizona, as well as to help out Congressional candidates in the state with large Latino districts. In fact, many of the closest Congressional races in California this year have high Latino populations, with their support being critical. And for Democrats who usually counted on their vote, it makes those races all the more harder to predict. In the 13th District, general consensus earlier this year had former Assemblyman Adam Gray beating Rep. John Duarte (R-CA). But, thanks in part to Latino support, particularly those on farms who like the GOP stance on agriculture and water usage in California, Duarte has stayed strong with the race neck-to-neck once again.

More Latinos are voting Republican in California

As Jessica Millan Patterson, the California Republican Party (CAGOP) Chairwoman and first Latina to hold that position, recently noted “I don’t think that my parents felt like they left the Democrat Party. They felt the Democrat Party left them. The Latinos that are coming to the Republican Party right now is simply because they’re sick and tired of what’s coming out of the Democratic Party.

“It’s one thing to show up to a farm and even register some voters, talk to people about the issues that have adversely affected my community. It’s very different to have a long, sustaining presence within those communities.”

As a result, pollsters across the state have their eyes on what the final count will be for Latinos. What percentage Harris will ultimately get will be a main focus, but many are also focused on the House and local elections too. They want to know how many will vote Republican this election, as well as project what that percentage will be four years from now.

“Latinos are the fastest growing racial group in the U.S., and if more are going Republican, that doesn’t bode well for Democrats,” added Valdez. “The election today is going to be an important indicator and just how fast this shift is happening still. The border issue is still important, but we need to find out from polling in the next several months not only who Latinos voted for, but what the main issues were. The border and immigration are not the only things Latinos care about, and we need to see if the Democrats finally got that message.

“Working class Latinos care about crime, care about the cost of living. They want their children to do better than them. The GOP speaks to that more. Yeah, they may come down harder on immigration, but they also have a lot of values that resonate with them too. How big is the Democrats loss with them this year going to be?”

Voter demographic information on certain races is likely to come out later this year and early next year.