Michelle Steel, Derek Tran Separated by 300 Votes As 45th House Race Remains Uncalled

The 45th Congressional District Race between Congresswoman Michelle Steel (R-CA) and Attorney Derek Tran (D) continued to be the closest House race in the nation on Friday, with Steel only leading Tran 152,021 votes to 151,785 votes with 93% of the votes in.

In this year’s 45th Congressional District race, which covers parts of both Orange County and Los Angeles County, Tran took on the incumbent Steel. While Steel was up in May in polls, by July it was a 47%-47% tie. Tran, aided by targeting Asian communities in the District and Vice President Kamala Harris’ goodwill going down ballot, was soon up, with him being two points ahead in September. However, that began to change last month when Tran went from scandal to scandal, including lying about being able to speak fluent Vietnamese, false claims about his military record, and then the biggest roadblock so far, his legal career – such as representing a rapist for profit and defending someone who had put up a noose in his office.

Tran, fueled by money coming in from the national party, drastically increased ads in response. In mid-October, a new poll found that Steel was four points ahead 45% to 41%. This only caused them to break out more last minute ads. However, that flurry of activity has brought to light some of Tran’s more questionable claims, with one including his traffic commission attendance. With Tran’s 60% commission attendance exposed and compared heavily to Steel’s 99% voting attendance in Congress, the Tran team latched to the only major allegation to rise since – one that dated back to her time as an Orange County Commissioner. Desperate, Tran tried a last minute gambit alleging that she gave a senior meal program contract to a printing company she used in order to regain the majority vote.

Early on, results after election day showed that Steel had all but won. On the day after election day, with 66% of the vote in, she was over 10,000 votes ahead, with 123,361 compared to Tran’s 113,225. However, this swiftly changed. As more votes were counted, Steel’s lead progressively narrowed. Her all but called race soon turned out to be the closest race in the entire nation. On Friday, updated voting results from the state showed her to be only 236 votes ahead with 93% of the vote in. In total, this is 152,021 votes to 151,785 votes, with it all but being a tie percentage-wise.

A 236 vote difference

While Steel has faced close elections before, such as defeating former Congressman Harley Rouda for the seat in 2020 with 51.1% of the vote and winning reelection two years ago with 52.4% of the vote, few had predicted this race to be this close. Both sides combined have also poured $46 million into the race, meaning a loss by either candidate would sting hard. And, despite the GOP already getting a hold on the House, they want a buffer as large as possible in case of any Congressional members being out when votes are taken, with the California District possibly playing a crucial vote.

“Like Duarte’s district 2 years ago, California once again has the closest race in the entire country,” explained James Garcia, a pollster who works in Orange County and San Diego County, to the Globe on Friday. “Things that had been helping Republican candidates in California and the nation, like an upswing of Latino voters, just are not making that big of a difference in this district, which has a huge Asian-American population. Many came out for Trump, but many others also came out for Harris, and they seemed to have all down-balloted or, for those voting for Trump, possibly split-voted from him for Tran.

“Ads for this race were on a constant loop. If you were watching football, the news, or something else that typically gets a lot of people watching, you couldn’t escape the ads. On one of the games before election day, entire ad breaks had nothing but political ads. That $46 million in spending suddenly makes sense.

“Three House races have yet to be called. Alaska’s, Duarte’s seat out here, although that one will probably go with him soon, and Steel’s. It’s 220 to 213 in the House right now seat-wise. If all three seats go Democrat, it will be a 4 vote difference. All go Republican, it’s 10 votes. If you have some people out sick or resigned or something when a huge vote comes, you’re going to want those extra votes. That’s why these last 3 seats are critical. And the 45th District has the most blatant pro-Trump/anti-Trump candidate difference of the three remaining.

“Expect a recount of this District either way it goes. It will be that close at this point.”

More vote results are expected in soon.