Latest Gubernatorial Poll: Katie Porter Leads, Mel Gibson Leads Among Republicans

In a new Lost Coast Outpost poll formulated on Wednesday, former Congresswoman Katie Porter now has a slight lead amongst all candidates with a quarter of all support, with actor Mel Gibson showing a surprising third place as the top Republican candidate with 12% of the vote.

According to the poll, which was a straight straw poll with no demographic data around it, Porter is now leading with a total of 25% of the vote. Former Vice President Kamala Harris, who has led the last several polls with significant margins, fell to 20% in the poll, likely as a result of Porter recently announcing her official run for Governor, while Harris has said that her final decision on running is to come this summer.

In a surprising third place was actor and filmmaker Mel Gibson with 12%. Gibson, who has become a speculative candidate in recent weeks thanks to his opposition against both Governor Gavin Newsom and Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass over their mismanagement of the Los Angeles fires in January, has yet to address a possible run for Governor.

Just behind Gibson with 11% was Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, who is the only current Republican with electoral wins to enter the race. In fifth and sixth place were two more speculative candidates –  State Senator Mike Mcguire (D-Healdsburg) with 10% of the vote and Humboldt County Sheriff William Honsal clocking in with 9% of the vote. No other candidate, including the rest of the official candidates, managed to top out above 3%.

Former State Senator Brian Dahle and 2022 Los Angeles Mayoral candidate Rick Caruso both wound up with 3% of the vote. Former RFK Jr. running mate Nicole Shanahan and Former state Controller Betty Yee garnered 2%. And finally, with only 1%, were the rest:  Lt. Governor Eleni Kounalakis,  State Superintendent Tony Thurmond, former state Senator Toni Atkins (D-San Diego), and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. Other possible candidates, like Special Presidential Envoy and former Ambassador to Germany Ric Grenell, were not listed in the poll.

The poll itself was Northern California based, showing higher than expected showings for some North State candidates, with candidates from elsewhere in the state not performing like previous polls. It should also be noted that the poll did not include an option for “I don’t know” or “undecided,” with voters needing to pick someone. Yet, even with these parameters, the poll showed a baseline of where Californians stood, thanks to Northern California having both Democratic and Republican leaning counties.

Porter, Harris, Gibson, Bianco

Previous polls showed a growing lead for Harris and Porter. There was the September 2024 USC poll, which found Villaraigosa to be the leader of the declared candidate poll and Porter leading the speculative candidate poll. According to the declared candidate poll, Villaraigosa led with 7.6% in favor of him becoming Governor. Kounalakis and Yee tied for second with 4.5%. The speculative poll showed that the leader, by a wide margin, was Porter, with 14%. The next closest candidate, Dahle, garnered only 5.3%. Meanwhile, an Emerson poll last month of just Democratic residents showed Harris on top with 57% of the poll, with Porter at only 9% and Kounalakis and Villaraigosa tied with 4% for third place.

Even with the North Coast bend, the poll on Wednesday showed that voters have responded to Porter entering the race positively, while Harris, who has yet to announce anything, suffering a bit in polling for her delay. Gibson, a Southern California resident with little political experience was the surprise of the poll, managing to lead Republicans, even Sheriff Bianco. All four are all Southern California based, showing a surprising popularity amongst Californians.

“The Lost Coast poll was just a straw poll with, like you said, mainly North Coast voters,” explained gubernatorial pollster Guillermo Williams to the Globe on Wednesday. “There was no demographic data and was literally just a single question. If this was a SoCal poll, then we would likely see some of those LA candidates get some higher percentages. Take it with a pinch of salt. That being said, the poll did show that it was still in line with where Californians stood with candidates from previous polls, so there is value here. Plus, like you said again, the North Coast can be a microcosm of California in some ways, so it at least shows who is popular in the race.

“Porter and Harris were not surprises, although Porter coming before Harris was. Gibson had yet to be on a poll, and it showed him doing quite well. A lot of these candidates are only known in their circles around LA or San Diego or Sacramento, and look how well they did. Gibson, LA guy, is a known entity and he has the lead. Bianco too was a surprise, although he is the only big-name Republican in the race right now.

“Overall, while being skewed to the North Coast, the poll does show that Harris and Porter are the Democratic favorites, with the GOP is still working on it. Bianco has support, but so does Gibson. Right now, we live in a world where we could see a Kamala Harris-Mel Gibson race for Governor next year. But neither of them have said one way or another yet too. Wow.”