‘The curve hasn’t just been flattened, it’s been crushed.’
The number of coronavirus deaths per day has continued to fall in June even as the number of cases has increased due to ramped up testing. “Cases” only mean those who test positive for the virus. It does not necessarily translate into hospitalizations or deaths. Most people are asymptomatic.
While the Wuhan coronavirus is real and said to be a nasty flu, the deaths attributed to it are still being overstated, according to a new report at Issues and Insights, which links to the Atlantic’s COVID-19 Tracking Project.
“The average number of daily COVID-19 deaths on a weekly basis has fallen from a peak of just over 2,000 to 700 or so. That’s a roughly 65% decline. And it’s no fluke. The figure has been dropping steadily since April.”
“As Youyang Gu, an MIT data scientist who created the COVID 19-projections.com site, tweeted: ‘To put the increase in deaths in context, Delaware added 69 deaths today: ‘The revision came from identifying 67 deaths dating back to April.’ So if you take out those 67 deaths, the week-over-week deaths have not changed.’”
“Goldman Sachs’ state-level tracker shows similar trends. The volume of coronavirus tests has risen 23% in the past two weeks, but positive results have increased just 1.3 percentage points to 6.2%. Meanwhile, deaths have fallen over the past two weeks by 12%.”
I&I says the deaths are grossly exaggerated, as California Globe has reported, and even noted the CDC adjusted the deaths last month, but it’s buried deeply on their website.
Another skeptic posted this on Twitter Wednesday – another California data dump:
“This is the third time CA data dumped a massive backlog. Tracking day-to-day movements is noise, not signal. No context and poor data quality. Promotes panic. “The state reported a huge batch of negative tests on April 4 and again on April 22.” – COVID Tracking Project”
This is the third time CA data dumped a massive backlog. Tracking day-to-day movements is noise, not signal. No context and poor data quality. Promotes panic.
“The state reported a huge batch of negative tests on April 4 and again on April 22.” – COVID Tracking Project https://t.co/nRelp1bGoV
— Aaron Ginn (@aginnt) June 25, 2020
In April, health experts at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington lowered COVID-19 coronavirus death projections for California substantially from around 1,750 a week ago to 1,483.
“Dr. Deborah Birx, the respected physician who heads the Trump administration’s coronavirus team, reportedly argued back in May at a closed Centers for Disease Control meeting that the agency’s death estimates were 25% too high, according to a Washington Post report,” I&I reported.
Gov. Gavin Newsom points out that more than 100,000 tests were conducted in California yesterday.
Yesterday CA conducted over 100k #COVID19 tests.
– 5.1% over 14 days
– 5.6% over 7 days
Yesterday we had a high of 7,149 new cases.
Today, that dropped to 5,349–still higher than it should be.
CA — WEAR A MASK. Wash your hands. Practice physical distancing.
— Gavin Newsom (@GavinNewsom) June 25, 2020
Epidemiologists James Enstrom and Jeffrey Klausner say California’s coronavirus response must be guided by the data. “The total number of IHME-projected COVID-19 deaths in California has been reduced by nearly 75 percent from the March 26 estimate of 6,100 to the April 7 estimate of 1,611. Similarly, the projected peak number of hospital beds needed for COVID-19 patients each day has been reduced from 15,000 to 5,000,” they reported.
That was in April.
“What’s more of a surprise is that, in spite of this testing increase, the number of documented new infections nationwide has remained flat. Even in states that are supposed ‘hotspots,’ the number of new cases has generally tracked new tests. Same story here in California.”
“This testing data, then, hardly justifies pausing societal reopening as the media claim. Rather, the latest virus information provides additional justification to proceed with the return to normal life.”
“The CDC recently revised its estimated Covid infection fatality rate down to just 0.3 percent. That’s more than an order of magnitude lower than the original estimate used to justify societal lockdowns. The number of Covid deaths continue to decline, falling in half nationally over the last month, according to a seven-day moving average.”
“The curve hasn’t just been flattened, it’s been crushed.”
As Dr. Veltmeyer concludes, “the media and some politicians, including California Gov. Gavin Newsom, have shifted the shutdown goalposts from flattening the curve to eradicating the virus.” And now Gov. Newsom says a vaccine is the end goal, which surely won’t magically be created anytime before November 3, 2020.
“In California, San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond investigated 194 COVID-19 deaths through mid-May and found that only six could be clearly claimed as caused by COVID-19,” I&I reported. “We’ve unfortunately had six pure, solely coronavirus deaths — six out of 3.3 million people,” said Desmond.
“Washington state reported that at least five of its then 828 COVID-19 deaths were actually due to gunshot wounds. Pennsylvania had to remove ‘hundreds of deaths’ from its tally for misreporting the actual causes.”
Yes, COVID positive tests are going up entirely due to hugely increased testing, with the media clamoring for another shutdown to tank the economy again. But the data does not lie, and death rates are going down, not up. Californians deserve the correct numbers.
UPDATE: Everyday in California, 750 people die from a range of diseases and accidents. With a total of 5,632 deaths in California over the past 7 months, that is 800 deaths a month. And, the majority of these deaths are in nursing homes and older people with underlying health issues.
California is a state of 40 million residents. What about the other 39,994,368 residents who are restricted in one way or another because of Gov. Newsom’s lockdown, mandatory mask wearing order, or the businesses with limited re-openings and restrictions?
Meanwhile, 160,000 homeless live on California’s streets, unprotected from the virus, and they are not dying off or dropping like flies. They have health issues, most are drug addicts, and are the perfect control group for public health officials to study.
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