Home>Articles>New Poll Shows Newsom Still Ahead of Dahle in Gubernatorial Race 58% to 31%

Governor Gavin Newsom at 2019 California Democratic Party State Convention at the George R. Moscone Convention Center in San Francisco, June 1, 2019. (Photo: Gage Skidmore)

New Poll Shows Newsom Still Ahead of Dahle in Gubernatorial Race 58% to 31%

Nesom still shows 27 point lead despite voters also noting worsening homeless, crime levels across state

By Evan Symon, September 15, 2022 2:44 pm

According to a new Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) poll released on Wednesday, Governor Gavin Newsom has kept up his commanding lead in the Gubernatorial race, albeit with signs showing that the race may be ultimately closer come election day.

The poll, which was conducted earlier this month, shows Newsom ahead of Republican challenger Senator Brian Dahle (R-Bieber) 58% to 31%. The 27% difference matches a UC Berkeley IGS poll released last month, although the Newsom camp can now no longer claim a 2 to 1 lead.

Both candidates are also shown to have kept up the vast majority of party voters, with 90% of Democrats indicating that they will vote for Newsom, while 85% of GOP voters have named Dahle as their choice. However, in the critical independent voter category, Newsom leads Dahle 55% to 33%.

Broken down by region, the Bay area and the LA area are firmly in majority favor of Newsom, with 72%-20% and 65%-23% respectively. Other regions have been shown to be much closer though. Newsom only holds an 8 point advantage in the Central Valley 50%-42% and only a 6 point advantage in the Orange County/San Diego area 46%-40%. In the Inland Empire, Dahle is within the margin of error, with Newsom only 3 points behind 41%-38%.

While the PPIC poll did delve into some more surprising figures, such as the majority of Californian voters feeling optimistic over the states direction (50% to 44%) there were indications that there are cracks forming in Newsom’s large lead, as well as in many other races. Across the board, voters have noticed large increases in both homelessness and crime. 61% of all Californians said that they have noticed an increase in homeless in California, with only 3% saying that the number of homeless have decreased. By district, Central Valley voters came in with the highest percentages, with 71% noticing an increase, 27% saying that it stayed the same in the past year, and only 2% saying that it decreased.

Californians have also said that crime has increased, with 42% saying that it has gone up in the past year, with only 4% saying it has decreased. Red and Blue areas alike routinely had more than 40% of respondents agree that crime went up and 6% or below saying that it went down. This included the Bay area, with only 2% of respondents there saying that crime has neither increased or stayed the same.

Voters note worsening homelessness, crime crises across state

While the poll shows a commanding lead for Newsom, as well as for issues such as Proposition 1 (constitutional abortion rights bill), where it is currently up by voters 69% to 25%, many experts note that Newsom may have a hard time getting to the 61.9% he reached in the 2018 election or the 61.8% who voted no on the recall last year.

“Support for Newsom is starting to slow down a bit now,” explained Erica Ziegler, an elections consultant who specializes in Gubernatorial races, to the Globe on Thursday. “He’s going to be pressed to get above 62%. He has a lot going for him too, especially with speculation that he may give a 2024 presidency bid a shot. He is also facing a candidate with little name recognition outside of Northern California. But look at some of those other factors.

“Crime and homelessness are getting worse across the state, so if those issues are pressed more before November, as well as things like the dire water situation, Newsom may not be doing as well as he is now. Also, this is also a mid-term year. Republicans currently have a 71% chance of taking back the House. GOP voters will be coming out in droves, and that includes in tight races across California. It may be a Democratic majority state, but there are still more Republican voters there than in Texas. For now at least. So if these issues are pressed more, there may be a turnaround.

“Overall, yeah, let’s not kid ourselves. Newsom is going to win. Dahle would need more than a few miracles to get to striking distance of Newsom. But things that Republicans are strong on, like crime, are becoming more and more important, and we may see a few surprises in a few months time. And it may also be enough to keep Newsom from getting above 62%. And hey, a lot can happen in the next several weeks.”

Other Gubernatorial polls are expected in the coming weeks.

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21 thoughts on “New Poll Shows Newsom Still Ahead of Dahle in Gubernatorial Race 58% to 31%

  1. Just FYI and Maybe it Doesn’t Matter, But: The guy who runs the PPIC polls has always been a huge supporter of Newsom from what I’ve observed.

  2. ‘The Little King’ is attempting to rid the field of his opponents for a 2024 Presidential run -LOL….
    ‘Kidnapping’ I say!
    ‘Democratic Gov Wants DOJ to Consider Major Charges (DeSantis, Abbott) After Republican Leaders Bus Migrants to Blue States’ (fox.com)
    His allegiance is to a foreign entity (WEF Klaus Schwab), not to his Oath of Office or the Constitution of the United States, to California, or the Rule of Law for that matter. Luke 12:2-3

  3. Dahle needs to get out and get known – too quiet at this stage of the game…

    Newsom is a horses six, but he’s got the power of the MSM keeping his name out there – in this day & age, there are low-cost ways & favorable outlets for Dahle to get himself out there and get some traction going….

  4. There needs to be a DEBATE! What are Governor Climate Change’s excuses? He can’t justify his lies and BS! Dahle needs to call out GCC big time! I think a perfect debate moderator would be Larry Elder who would not give either candidate soft ball questions.

  5. The Bay area and the LA area are firmly in majority favor of Newsom? No doubt it’s a rigged poll but wealthy Democrats in communities like Marin County are probably all for Newsom? Maybe they need some of the diversity that Newsom and the rest of the elitist Democrats are pushing? Why not transport some homeless and illegal aliens into their wealthy communities? They should welcome the diversity?

    1. Agree! Almost every city in the bay area is a proclaimed sanctuary city.
      Abbott and Gov DeSantis, may I suggest Saratoga, Berkeley, Rockridge area of Oakland, Marin, Hillsborough, Palo Alto, Sausalito and San Jose. San Carlos had it’s first beheading they can probably handle some more as well.
      If Dahle does not start campaigning hard then I will consider him to be controlled opposition and not serious about the Governorship.

      1. Great points Cali Girl!!! Where IS the CAGOP’s support of Dahle???

        I got yet ANOTHER request for money yesterday, but absolutely NO MENTION of Dahle or his upcoming campaign…
        I’m starting to believe that the majority of the Republican Party IS basically sold out to “The Swamp” and not interested in any MEANINGFUL conservative changes… the McConnell wing is DEFINITELY in the back pocket of the CCP, thanks for Mrs. Mitch’s family ties….

        1. Exactly CriticalDfence, they are happy to take donations but I do not see much return on it.
          Seriously, where is the CA GOP and Dahle?
          Who is communicating policy change?
          We have the Globe of course and John Phillips and a few other talk radio hosts.
          Honestly, hit on the water storage issues, energy production, explain why solar is not a good option, hit on the medical tyranny happening in the state. Those are just a few, we have crime and homeless issues. I want to see ads because we are be pummeled with prop 26/27! I want to hear radio spots,I want to see his face everywhere, write op-eds.

          Take some lessons from Arizona’s fearless Kari Lake! Get out make your case Dahle, Californians need an alternative! You have 55 days to make your case!! Actually much less because of the frickin mail in voting!

  6. Obviously no one knows what is going on because they are too stoned to care.
    Dumb bleep Newsom just outlawed diesel trucks in 2042. No problem. Get right on it. Completely impractical, not a peep from the media.
    No one cares anymore.
    Raleys grocery store tried natural gas trucks, they had to crawl up the sierras at three MPH.
    An EV truck is going to be 75% battery, 15% truck, and 10% freight.
    Meanwhile, we have potholes the homeless can sleep in.

    1. You’re not kidding, Chuckiechan. These leftists are stoned out of their minds. In the mean time, as I predicted a few months ago, we are heading toward a worldwide inflation-induced depression. At that point, all of this nonsense will be forgotten since the elite class will lose their paper wealth and everyone will suddenly become more equally POOR. God’s way of producing wealth redistribution.

  7. Democrat Gov. Gavin Newsom is one of Klaus Schwab’s World Economic Forum globalist flunkies and he’s intent on destroying the country just like he has California. Instead of being allowing him to freely run for political office again, Gavin Newsom should be hauled before a tribunal and be held accountable for crimes against humanity. He imposed medical tyranny, locked down Californians (of course excepting himself and his Democrat cronies), and mandated experimental mRNA shots that have killed and injured thousands.

  8. Talk to any Democrat. They have no clue what is going on. MSM and the Democratic Party has literally programmed them into bots. California Democrats and Independents (who are really Democrats pretending to Independents) are the worst of all. I had one Democrat tell me she thought Biden was “sharp”.

    The Republican Party in this state is pathetic. They all voted for the Democrats’ “Climate Change Heat Warnings”.

  9. Head line should read: “Majority of California voters still stupid”. That would be more accurate. Make sure we are all spreading the word on Dahle I am sure he is underfunded.

  10. With mail -in ballots distributed to all (dead or alive on the voter rolls) , ballot drop boxes, “print at home” ballots, and third party ballot harvesting….Gavin has four more years in the bag. Main focus is his POTUS run. That’s why he is sparing with DeSantis to get National name recognition. Women across the country will fall in love with “Hair gel” and vote for him ignoring his lousy record in California.

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