Home>Articles>Newsom Leads Dahle 52% to 25% in Gubernatorial Race in New UC Berkeley IGS Poll

Governor Gavin Newsom at 2019 California Democratic Party State Convention at the George R. Moscone Convention Center in San Francisco, June 1, 2019. (Photo: Gage Skidmore)

Newsom Leads Dahle 52% to 25% in Gubernatorial Race in New UC Berkeley IGS Poll

‘Newsom isn’t doing so hot, but he has remained more positive than not with the voters, so far’

By Evan Symon, August 24, 2022 2:15 am

According to a UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies (IGS) poll released on Tuesday, Governor Gavin Newsom currently has a commanding 2-to-1 lead over Republican challenger Senator Brian Dahle (R-Bieber) in the Gubernatorial race.

The IGS poll, the first major poll of the race, found that 52% of Californians would vote for Newsom, with only 25% voting for Dahle. 19% remain undecided, with 4% looking at possible write-in options. Based on geography, Newsom is beating Dahle in every region. The biggest gap is in the Bay area, with Newsom a 64%-16% margin, with the gap being the smallest in the North Coast/Sierras, Dahle’s Senate territory, with a 38%-34% showing.

Senator Brian Dahle. (Kevin Sanders for California Globe)

Among Gender, Racial, and Age categories, Newsom is also polling at 50% or more in each demographic, with Dahle’s supporters skewing older and male. However, a big reason for this has been Dahle’s status as a political unknown to many in the race, with 58% of all voters being unfamiliar enough with Dahle to give an opinion according to the poll. In total 53% of voters, including 80% of all Democrats, hold a favorable opinion of Newsom, with 39% showing unfavorable views and 8% not having an opinion. Dahle, meanwhile, has 24% favorability, 18% unfavourability, and 58% no opinion.

When it comes to job performance, Newsom takes a dive, with 53% approving of his performance, but 42% disapproving of it. Even worse for Newsom, 52% of all voters feel that the state is on the wrong track, with the amount growing since the June primary. But, despite Newsom remaining lukewarm in overall popularity and Governance, he still has crowded out Dahle and remains in the national spotlight due to speculation in the last few months that he may run for President in 2024.

Newsom leads Dahle in CA Governor’s race

“Newsom isn’t doing so hot, but he has remained more positive than not with the voters, so far,” explained Erica Ziegler, an elections consultant who specializes in Gubernatorial races, to the Globe on Tuesday. “He beat the recall and has been improving his image since, even vetoing more radical legislation he would have signed a few years ago to appeal to more people while also keeping his base. Californians are concerned about crime, the economy, many Californians leaving the state, taxes, and affordable housing and homelessness, and so far he has managed to not get nailed down on any of those issues like he had been during the signature gathering process of the recall election with the French Laundry mask incident. He’s also overseeing a large surplus, and for many it is hard to argue with a Governor who is bringing in money.”

“In fact, this election isn’t about how strong Newsom is, but who the GOP picked. Dahle. He’s a solid state Senator, but he has little name recognition outside of far North California. The majority of voters don’t know anything about him besides his party and name. That’s a huge issue. And it’s not like there aren’t California Republicans who aren’t well known. It’s just that none of them ran, so they went with one of the few people who ran with political experience.”

“Dahle needs to get traction, but right now it is pretty hard. Besides name recognition, there are funding issues. Newsom’s war chest is $24 million, and he is spending some of that out of state with ads in in other places. Dahle? $300,000. That’s one full ride scholarship at Stanford. It’s peanuts compared to Newsom. We all know it is hard for the GOP to win in California, but even here it’s a bit ridiculous.”

“For Newsom, he just needs to coast through and he’ll be fine. Dahle, he needs to capitalize on all of Newsom’s mistakes and really start slamming him on all of these outrageous things he has done or else he is just going to be left spinning the wheels. I think a goal for the GOP, at this point, is to keep Newsom under 60% and have Dahle get above 38%, just to show there has been progress since 2018. And the poll shows that that can go either way. Newsom is looking at higher office right now, and most candidates would do something while the other guy has his eyes off the prize.”

More polls are expected in the coming weeks to show how the race is progressing for both candidates.

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19 thoughts on “Newsom Leads Dahle 52% to 25% in Gubernatorial Race in New UC Berkeley IGS Poll

  1. A UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies (IGS) poll? Was taken among brainwashed students at UC Berkeley?

  2. It seems to me that State Senator Brian Dahle has NOTHING TO LOSE by putting himself on the CA map and raising some serious campaign and ad money by trashing Newsom, as he should be trashed. Newsom’s horrors and failures as governor are a GOLDMINE. What Californians have suffered and how the state has been devastated under Newsom’s reign are legion. This is a golden opportunity for the Repub gubernatorial candidate. Dahle should book himself on every possible California media outlet from post-Labor Day to Election Day and go full blast trashing this HORRIFIC Governor.
    The reason Sen Dahle has nothing to lose is because plenty of Californians are FURIOUS that he has apparently been doing nothing and saying nothing during this time. Even when he has been invited on various big local radio shows he has not responded. Yeah, I know, the (useless) CA Republican Party has no money to finance him, no one knows who he is, blah, blah, blah. Never mind, it’s time to make your own luck and money and support, Sen Brian Dahle. Give us someone to vote for, an alternative to Gov Gruesome. We’re begging you.

  3. GOP registration + Independent registration = Democrat registration.

    Key is capturing the Independent vote. Why did they not want to register Democrat?

    1. Excellent points, Jaye.
      The CAGOP should spend whatever is left in the bank account to make bumper stickers from the perfect, simple slogan you suggest, offer them on that newsletter I used to constantly get and maybe in a few other publications, and send them out free to any Repub (or Independent) who wants to put one on their bumper.

  4. Seeing that bubblehead on “The View” gush about how she’s supporting Newsom because “he’s easy on the eyes” just shows how empty-headed and devoid of logic the average Democrat must be….
    And a UC Berkeley poll doesn’t really matter because we already know that they are not independent and have an inherent sampling bias from their dominant campus culture…

    While I’m glad that Dahle is running, I REALLY wish that Tom McClintock had thrown HIS hat into the ring, as he also has significant name recognition, and probably should have won against Shwarzenshtupper if California voters weren’t star-struck low-information voters (or was Dominion making it’s initial inroads into California voting way back then???).

    ANYBODY but Newsom – this joker is a narcissist of the highest order and he’s also a member of the World Economic Forum’s “Young Global Leaders” program (class of 2005) and Klaus Schwab is on VIDEO bragging that his influence has “penetrated the governments and legislators” of multiple regions…

    SO – if you’re paying ONE SHRED of attention to global politics and the WEF’s “trans-humanist agenda”, “Build Back Better” and “Agenda 2030” policies, California voters would be WELL INFORMED to look beyond “easy on the eyes” (she needs her eyes checked) and look at the man’s tyrannical policies that have impoverished California for over two years and his COMPLETE MISMANAGEMENT of California water resources, power infrastructure, OVERSIGHT OF THE EDD, and the list of his F*CK UPS goes ON and ON and ON….

    Dahle might not have name recognition beyond far-North California, but those people tend to vote with their HEADS (BRAINS!) not their HEARTS (EMOTIONS!) and if McClintock is not in the race, then Dahle deserves our full-throated support….

    Newsom and his San Franfreakshow minions must be DEFEATED at all costs, if California is ever to regain its standing as the best state in the Nation…. PERIOD – FULL STOP….

    1. CD9: I hear you. By the way, “Anybody but Newsom” is also a very good idea for a bumper sticker slogan. 🙂

  5. What happened to all the Republicans lining up to defeat Newsom with the recall? Their names were out there with voters already. Why roll out a completely new name now? Is it because CAGOP doesn’t believe a Republican can win against Newsom? With all of the baggage Newsom has right now it shouldn’t be that difficult to show him for what he is – incompetent, dishonest and arrogant. No one thinks or connects dots anymore. So irritating.

    1. GOP candidates have better things to do with their lives, than run for political office and face getting ground up by the Democrat Mean Machine politics of personal destruction a second time.

      Democrats have no other life game plan, other than finding more ways to suck off the public trough. This leads to obvious ballot disparities.

  6. He needs to capture the spirit of Schwartzeneggar’s speeches. He knew how to reach the people.
    Secondly he needs a squad of media guests to organize their topics around “What is a governor supposed to do, anyway?”
    Start with “where is the money going” or is mailing ballots to “Last Known Address” secure, or “is it time for women in sports to learn to lose gracefully?”
    Look at out population: a Stockholm Syndrome of captured underachieving liberals, indoor athletes, and a voting population that has zero access to California news.
    So far all I have heard from Dahle is crickets. Zzzzz….

  7. The state constitutional officers running are saying they will not even debate their opponents. IOW, in spite of crime, gas prices, fires, homeless, drugs easier to get than straws, black outs, banning peoples cars, banning diesel trucks, billions in surpluses frittered away on vanity projects, they are confident they know the outcome of the election already.
    What do Californians know that you don’t.

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