A California physician familiar with the Globe has over the course of the COVID pandemic provided information and explanations about the virus and treatments, along with questions about the efficacy and longevity of the vaccines, and more recently, breakthrough COVID cases of the fully vaccinated. This physician has also shared his questions of State and County Public Health Officers’ vaccine mandates, boosters and lack of treatment options in hospitals.
Here is what he most recently explained to the Globe about why increases in COVID-19 are unrelated to levels of vaccination:
“An article from European Journal of Epidemiology shows no improvement in case rate with increasing vaccination,” the physician said. “In fact if there is any association, more cases look to be associated with higher vaccination rates.”
“This would likely be due to Antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) where previously neutralizing antibodies generated from the vaccination against the original wuhan variant spike protein now enhances infection in the delta variant.”
“A layman’s way of explaining the idiocy of booster shots is as follows: we give different flu vaccines each year based on the predicted mutations it will have, but we never just give last years vaccine for the flu. Giving boosters of the same COVID vaccine is like giving last year’s or the year before flu vaccine for this year’s flu season. The effect will be minimal since there have been so many mutations at the spike protein.”
“Increases in COVID-19 are unrelated to levels of vaccination across 68 countries and 2947 counties in the United States.”
“At the country-level, there appears to be no discernible relationship between percentage of population fully vaccinated and new COVID-19 cases in the last 7 days (Fig. 1). In fact, the trend line suggests a marginally positive association such that countries with higher percentage of population fully vaccinated have higher COVID-19 cases per 1 million people.”
“Across the US counties too, the median new COVID-19 cases per 100,000 people in the last 7 days is largely similar across the categories of percent population fully vaccinated (Fig. 2). Notably there is also substantial county variation in new COVID-19 cases within categories of percentage population fully vaccinated. There also appears to be no significant signaling of COVID-19 cases decreasing with higher percentages of population fully vaccinated (Fig. 3).”
In September, the physician drafted a letter to the Contra Costa County Public Health doctor, concerned about breakthrough cases of COVID.
“My last evaluation of Contra Costa County stats shows a 7 day running average that 30% of all positive cases are in the fully vaccinated,” he told the Globe. “And it is likely worse because only vaccinated patients who go in the hospital are supposed to be counted as cases.”The physician sent Contra Costa County Public Health Officer Dr. Farnitano an email asking him to clarify those numbers. “Crickets,” is what he received back. “I have been challenging my administration to publish our numbers of vaccinated patients because they say only 1/20 patients admitted are vaccinated,” he said. “I showed them Contra Costa County numbers and said this doesn’t add up. And I added, ‘If you want the 1000 John Muir employees to be vaccinated that are not, you may help alleviate their fears by publishing these numbers.’ It has to be easy to do so, but they are resistant.”
The physician wrote a letter to his medical colleagues saying he had “serious ethical reservations regarding forced vaccinations of their medical colleagues arising solely from the emerging scientific evidence regarding a significantly eroding benefit/risk ratio of all the current vaccinations against SARS-COV2.”
He said many health care providers fall into an extremely low risk cohort from the disease itself, and therefore any vaccine has to show clear benefit over the index disease.
He expressed concern over the “eroding benefits of the vaccine,” the proof of which is provided by well-vaccinated countries like Israel and the United Kingdom, and the increasing number of breakthrough covid cases of the fully vaccinated. The vast majority of covid cases in these countries is from the delta variant. It is reported that over 85% of people over the age of 30 are fully vaccinated in Israel yet their hospitals have equal or higher numbers of fully vaccinated patients than unvaccinated patients.”
He goes on to explain that the Delta Variant is a SARS COV2 virus with multiple mutations of the spike protein. “Unfortunately, the original Wuhan wild type spike protein is the only site for which all EUA vaccinations stimulate an immune response. Together, these changes in immune tolerance/enhancement to the delta variant account for the markedly rising rates of breakthrough infections seen in Europe/Israel and now in the United States including Contra Costa County,” he said.
“This was predicted by many scientists warning against mass vaccinations DURING a pandemic (which has never been done like this before),” the physician said.
“In short, vaccines that are still directed toward the original wild type Wuhan variant spike protein cannot be expected to provide any significant sustained immune recognition to the Delta Variant. This seems quite obvious clinically.”
He concluded that mandating vaccination or boosters with the same vaccines is “extremely unethical as is forcing vaccinations, or discriminating between vaccinated and unvaccinated employees at our institutions.”
“We are called as physicians to do no harm. I have offered the scientific mechanisms above,” he wrote. “We are called to follow this science regardless of what guideline or mandates our policymakers instill upon us. We are called to respectively refuse to enforce this mandate and cannot let the influence of policymakers get in the way of sound scientific judgement. It is our ethical duty,” he said.
The physician, who is fully vaccinated, shared this letter with the Globe and asked if we had heard this from other doctors. We have, but most cannot or will not be quoted out of fear of retribution.
The conclusion of the European Journal of Epidemiology: “The sole reliance on vaccination as a primary strategy to mitigate COVID-19 and its adverse consequences needs to be re-examined, especially considering the Delta (B.1.617.2) variant and the likelihood of future variants.”
“In summary, even as efforts should be made to encourage populations to get vaccinated it should be done so with humility and respect. Stigmatizing populations can do more harm than good.”
European Journal of Epidemiology article citation: Subramanian, S.V., Kumar, A. Increases in COVID-19 are unrelated to levels of vaccination across 68 countries and 2947 counties in the United States. Eur J Epidemiol (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10654-021-00808-7
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