Schiff Ahead In Senate Race According To First Post-Primary Poll

Congressman Adam Schiff (D-CA) took an early lead over Professional baseball player Steve Garvey (R) in the California U.S. Senate race this week following the release of the first post-primary poll.

Previously, only one Schiff-Garvey matchup poll had been conducted before the primary, as many polling groups had earlier banked on a November election where Schiff would be facing Congresswoman Katie Porter (D-CA) instead and had done those polls instead. However, as it became apparent that Garvey would be the one facing off against Schiff this November, a UC Berkeley IGS poll came out in late February with such a matchup. According to that poll, Schiff led 53% to 38%, with 9% undecided.

However, the April 2024 Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) poll came out this week, showing that a post-primary Schiff had moved ahead significantly, with 61% of voters in favor of Schiff, 37% in favor of Garvey, and only 2% undecided. These figures are roughly similar to the 2012 Senate race, where Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein defeated Republican candidate Elizabeth Emken 62.5% to 37.5%.

When broken down, there is a clear divide on party and ideology. The poll showed that 92% of Democrats favored voting for Schiff, with 88% of Republicans in favor of Garvey. Independent voters were split 58%-38% favoring Schiff. Similarly, 95% of liberals favored Schiff, 84% of conservatives were for Garvey with moderates favoring Schiff 65% to 32%.

While Schiff was ahead in the majority of areas and demographics, Garvey proved to be strong in many areas too. By region, Garvey was ahead of Schiff in the Central Valley region 50% to 48%. He was also within striking distance in two others, only trailing Schiff 46% to 50% in the Inland Empire and 46% to 53% in the San Diego/Orange County region.

Schiff ahead of Garvey in first poll

While Garvey leaned more into older and white voters, he also showed an improvement in attracting the Latino vote, garnering a higher percentage than Republican Senate candidates have in the last several elections. Overall, while Schiff was off to a large lead, Garvey came in with more brighter spots than previous GOP Senate candidates.

“As expected, Schiff is well above Garvey right now,” Stephanie Lewis, a pollster in Southern California, told the Globe Wednesday. “Garvey may have been within 3,000 votes of beating Schiff in the primary, but there were a lot more votes overall for Democrats than Republicans. This is California after all. And, as expected, the Democrat is leading by a lot.”

“That said, Garvey is off to a better start the Republicans of the past. He is actually ahead in some regions over Schiff and, perhaps more worryingly, he’s already locked in a big chunk of Latino and white voters. I would agree there are some bright spots to build on.”

“But remember, the PPIC is also far from accurate and can skew Democratic. The last PPIC poll, from mid-February, had Schiff winning the primary with 24% of the vote, Porter coming in second with 19%, Garvey in third at 18% and [Congresswoman Barbara] Lee (D-CA) at 10%. They said that a lot more voters would pick someone other than the big 4, and had only 6% undecided. A few weeks later, Schiff had 31.6%, Garvey 31.5%, and Porter at 15.3%. The only thing the poll got remotely accurate was Lee with 9.8%. So they don’t have the best track record  sometimes.”

“UC Berkeley and Emerson polls have been shown to be far more accurate, so if you want numbers you can take to the bank, wait on those. However, the PPIC poll gives a first baseline at what is to come, and that even with some skewing, Garvey is doing well in many areas early on. But let’s wait for some other polls first before we have Schiff, for sure, this far ahead of Garvey. The last several PPIC polls have been pretty off.”

More polls on the 2024 Senate race are due to come out soon. Election day is just over 6 months out, and is to fall on November 5, 2024.