GOP Senate Candidate Steve Garvey (Photo: Garvey for Senate)
The Democrats Have A Garvey Problem
Garvey stays in second in polls, only behind Schiff
By Evan Symon, December 27, 2023 5:26 pm
The continued rise of former baseball star Steve Garvey (R) in the 2024 California Senate race is proving to be more and more of a problem for Democrats. Popularity-wise, Garvey has the most support for a Republican running for Senate in the state since former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina managed to get 42% of the vote in the pre-jungle primary year of 2010 against then Senator Barbara Boxer.
All three major Democrats running, Congressman Adam Schiff (D-CA), Congresswoman Katie Porter (D-CA), and Barbara Lee (D-CA) decided to forego running for reelection in their House districts on the understanding that two of them would make it past the primary and run against each other. Financially this might be a bit of a slog, as state Democratic supporters would be split on who to give donations to, but since this was a rare open Senate election, it was necessary.
And early on, this was succeeding. Schiff and Porter were a constant one and two in polls, with Lee staying close at third. The closest Republicans, lawyer Eric Early (R) and businessman James Bradley (R), were getting decent numbers for Republicans, but were still well out. In August, when Lee fell to 7% in polls, Bradley was just able to match her with Early a few points behind them. Even then, second-place Porter was a full ten points ahead.
Then, in October, Garvey came in. Right off the bat, he was at 10% in polls. In the latest polls in December, Garvey was at 15%, with fellow Republicans Early and Bradley averaging 5% each. Porter has remained a close third, with Lee managing to bounce back somewhat in recent polls thanks to her leaning on hard-left issues. In the last few polls, it has generally been Schiff staying in a commanding lead with 22%-25%, Garvey holding second at 15%, Porter sticking close in third at 12%-14%, Lee at fourth with 12%, and around 20% of people staying undecided.
With the party primaries expected to bring out a lot of voters, the GOP could see something of a boost. Along with a high number of undecided voters expected to go with a Republican, there may be a bit more of an unexpected shift. And for the GOP, that would already be victory enough. A Schiff-Garvey race knocking out both Porter and Lee this early on, in addition to making their House sacrifices being for naught, would prove that the GOP is still a force to be reckoned with in California and that the party is building support back up in more major elections. Mark Meuser’s showing in 2022 against Senator Alex Padilla (D-CA) being the best for a Republican candidate in 12 years will only be expanded on.
40%
And for Democrats, this is a big problem. With Garvey likely to get more support, especially from the Early and Bradley factions, post-Primary, Schiff would need to suddenly have to win over Democrats all over again. To many, even with Garvey getting some timely support, Schiff is likely going to win the race due to the high number of Democrats in California alone. But many Democrats remain concerned on what a Schiff-Garvey race could do.
“There isn’t worry here that a Democrat won’t win,” said “Monte” a California Democrat county leader, to the Globe on Wednesday. “If it is Schiff and Garvey, it will be Schiff. Barring some major scandal or something unexpected, it will be Schiff. If it is Schiff-Porter or Schiff-Lee, that’s another story.”
“If Garvey is in, what we worry about is how well he will actually do. We were not worrying about any other Republican before Garvey. But he has just come onto the scene in the last few months. We knew he would be getting more support, but we didn’t expect this much. We didn’t expect him to be doing better than Porter right now.”
“So these are the levels of worry we have. First one is doing better than the guy who ran against Padilla last year. Yeah, Meuser. He does better than him, ok, that’s not good. Especially with Schiff being somewhat popular. That’s about 40%. Above that is the second level of worry and that is if they getup to 45%. And then after that, well, you get the picture.”
“I can’t speak from a state perspective, just what we are worrying about overall. There’s many people above me. But that 40% is what a lot of us will be looking at if it is Schiff-Garvey. There’s concern we reached the peak in 2018 because we’ve been slowly losing House races since and elections have gotten a smidge closer. The Senate election next year, that will confirm it. 40%. Look for that 40%. You mentioned the 2010 race with Boxer. What was it, 42%? If Garvey reaches that, then that would be a huge warning to us. And, right now, it isn’t impossible.”
New Senate polls are expected soon.
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For almost every election this century, and without exception in the last 6 election cycles, every “competitive” GOP candidate for higher state office gets around 40 percent of the vote. Anywhere else, those are landslide loss numbers. But here in California we have analysts who pretend they portend GOP momentum. This is BS. California’s GOP needs a complete reset. They need better issues to emphasize and they need better candidates to carry their message. The fact that a man who retired from baseball 36 years ago and is 76 years old is the best the GOP can do is not an insult to Steve Garvey, but it is an indictment of the GOP’s ability to find good candidates. Where are the businesspeople? Where are rising local politicians with charisma and genuine leadership skills? At the risk of being mean, Steve Garvey is a meal ticket for consultants who specialize in losing, and a target for donors who want to hope they’ll beat the odds at last. I hope I’m wrong.
100%
Jessica Millan Patterson is California’s answer to Ronna Romney McDaniel….
WORTHLESS!!!
Yeah, but the Democrat candidates are not great. Schiff is a notorious liar, Porter is a hack windbag, and Lee can’t campaign. They all stand for the same thing and their totals show they have generated little excitement with Biden’s disastrous national policies dragging down voter enthusiasm. Even if the Democrats manage to win, if Garvey gets to the 40% or more level, this will be enough statewide to defeat other idiotic tax and housing issues on the statewide ballot.
lol, IF, Garvey wins. Jack above said it: “76 yo running for office in CALIFORNIA.” Welp, at least he’s running. You’re right, it doesn’t say much about the GOP in this state. But, you have what you have. Can he win? Depends on whether those helping are truly helping, or just leaching off of the money train.
Ah, Ms Patterson. smh…….soooooo many things about her, soooooooo much anger towards her.
I’ll leave you with this: WHAT is the Republican party DOING, to get the 56% of Eligible voters, to actually come out to vote? That number was the amount of folks who did NOT Vote, in the 2022 election. 56%! WTF
Jack asked:” Where are the businesspeople? Where are rising local politicians with charisma and genuine leadership skills?” Scheming? Hedging bets? Climbing political ladders? Or, they left already?
You also said: “They need better issues to emphasize and they need better candidates to carry their message”
HAHAHA, Message?? It doesn’t matter about the message, it ONLY matters how much MONEY you can raise!
That’s it! (Pundits have told me this) Message? Please….from what I keep hearing about Republican party LEADERSHIP, we’re in trouble!!!
Alas, this is the ‘behind the back, behind the doors, whispers to your ear’ that Republican so called LEADERS, believe in:
” California is a LOST CAUSE”. ” No one will waste time or money IN California.” “It’s not worth the effort.” “No matter your message, if you can’t raise millions, you’ll lose, period.” ” No body cares about CALIFORNIA, except you, and who are you? A nobody. No one knows you or knows about you, so you’ll never be more than a ‘window dressing/vanity, candidate.”
Wow…….Of course, when the chips are down, these same people, these same leaders, JUMP UP AND LOUDLY PROCLAIM!!: GO TEAM REPUBLICAN!!! B*****S******.
What they claim in private is sickening. When it comes time to vote, they lie to the public, because deep down they know, it’s a loss already, they’re just playing the role. Pretending. I’m sick of it. I’m sick of having a party in this State, be irrelevant. I listen to the pundits and I cringe, because when I DO run, I’m pretty sure I’ll be tossed because I am no one in their eyes: Nobody they know, so nobody will care. I’ll be that ‘window dressing/vanity’ candidate, because THEIR pick hasn’t stood up yet. LEADERSHIP is what you’re asking for? Where is it? WHO is the leader?? Who’s leading from the REAR now?? MAY 2024, ladies and gentlemen. MAY 2024.
When it happens, we’ll see WHO decides they want to finally stand up and be counted. After all the talk, the wheeling and dealing, the ‘how’s this fit my political schedule’ discussion, we’ll see WHO REALLY wants to Lead, and who really pretends to be a leader.
ps…who cares about the DEMO candidates, none of them are worth jack. They’re looking for a JOB. That’s all.
Worry about what WE are doing, not what THEY are pretending to do.
Schiff and Porter could run a slave plantation and Democrat voters would still happily vote for them!! Because they answer to a higher power – the god of Woke!! Which tells them what to think, how to act and who to vote for. Anybody who challenges the Democrat power structure will be attacked and the brainwashed, woke army will spring to action with their no morals and no laws that apply to them to fight their “enemy”. We are deluding ourselves if we think Garvey is going to change anything. Don’t think voting is going to make a difference anymore. Need a new strategy.
All three Democrats:
Support DEI
Support weak law and order policies
Favor our chaotic open border
Are weak on the Military
Democrats have shown themselves to be unable to govern because of their being owned by the leftwiong extremists currently infesting the Party-AOC and the Hamas Caucus
I was NPP and I am Pro Choice but I cannot vote for another Democrat until they return to the Center, which I don’t see happening
I am voting for Garvey
There’s so much fraud in CA elections that it doesn’t matter who is running on the GOP side, they will lose.