Schiff, Garvey Lead Latest Mid-December Senate Poll

According to a new Politico poll released on Thursday, Congressman Adam Schiff (D-CA) and former baseball star Steve Garvey (R) continue to lead the 2024 ‘Jungle Primary’ race for the U.S. Senate, with Congresswomen Katie Porter (D-CA) and Barbara Lee (D-CA) staying closely behind.

The poll, which was conducted between December 15th and December 19th, shows that Schiff currently has come out to a commanding lead in the race, with a 28% in total. Coming in second is Garvey with 19%. Porter remains in a close third with 17% with Lee, long considered to be out following several polls having her come in below 10%, now at 14%.

Rounding out the top finishers are lawyer Eric Early (R) and businessman James Bradley (R) with 7% each and former TV anchorwoman Christina Pascucci (D) at 4%. Unlike other polls, undecided was not an option, forcing those being polled to pick someone to support.

Overall, the poll also showed that Schiff’s support is still higher than the other top Democrats amongst men and older voters. Amongst women, the vote is split between the three with Schiff having a slight edge, with younger voters generally being split amongst Porter and Lee. When all voters from both parties are taken into account, Schiff does still lead his favorable demographics, but with Garvey in a close second.

The Politico poll confirms the four big trends that have been happening in recent months for the candidates – Schiff continuing to grow his major lead, Garvey continuing to secure second place with more support, Porter generally struggling to gain new supporters, and Lee undergoing a resurgence of support. One of the main factors behind the shift of support has been the Israel-Hamas war. With Schiff in support of Israel, Garvey condemning the Hamas attacks, and Lee calling for a cease-fire, the strong opinions have helped build up their respective bases. Candidates attempting to stay in the middle of the debate, such as Porter, have generally failed to gain traction.

Schiff, Garvey ahead in Senate polling

Lee’s far-left views have also been gaining support from many, with enough party people backing her over Schiff and Porter that she ended up leading the vote to be the official Democratic Senate candidate at the CADEM convention last month, albeit failing to get enough votes to reach a consensus. Meanwhile, Republicans have continued to flock to Garvey, especially after moving into second place in polling. Early and Bradley still have their niches in party support, but may end up either supporting Garvey or getting a significantly lower support percentage as the race enters January.

“There is a Democratic split and a Republican split in support right now,” said Stephanie Lewis, a pollster in Southern California, to the Globe on Thursday.” For the GOP, their main guy is Garvey, and it looks like that is only growing. If Early or Bradley, or both, throw their support behind Garvey, he’ll be unstoppable. And compared to the Democrats, they are much more likely to do that. As it is, Garvey is still in second, but by only two points. Still, he’s in second, and that is really embarrassing Democrats who were aiming to have an all-Democratic November race. They wanted two candidates in to not make anyone in the party mad because of differing ideologies. Now they may have to pick one. And in this age of more diversity, it will be between two older white men. In California. Like I said, many Democrats are furious.”

“Speaking of, the Democratic side of things is in total disarray. The GOP is fine, with everyone staying respectful. The Schiff-Porter-Lee situation is still tearing the party up. Most are heading towards Schiff now, and for Porter and Lee, who don’t want someone from the GOP to snag second place in March, this is incredibly frustrating. They gave up their House seats for this. And they may lose it to a guy who was censured in the House and another guy who played baseball for the Dodgers [and Padres].”

“This Politico poll pretty much told us where we know things are going. Schiff has to do something completely stupid to not get in now. As for the others, Garvey needs to dig into Early and Bradley’s support and continue to win DINOs and moderates over. Lee needs to continue to gain support, and Porter needs to do something to eat into Schiff’s lead. If the GOP stays strong and the Democrats continue to cannibalize each other, yeah, this will be a Schiff-Garvey race instead of the Schiff-Porter race everyone was expecting.”

“Garvey gets in, GOP proves they still have a decent amount of power in California. If it is Schiff and another Democrat, the GOP can sit back and watch as the two sides try to outspend each other. Getting the seat is really difficult, but for the GOP, they will win in some way guaranteed.”

More polls are expected to come in in late December and in early January.