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Shock Poll: Jeff Denham’s Return to the House Appears Bleak

Opponent Josh Harder is Resonating With Latinos

By Sean Brown, November 1, 2018 5:15 pm

In what could prove to be a major upset, Democratic challenger Josh Harder is still leading Incumbent Republican Jeff Denham (R-Turlock) according to the latest poll.

The study, which was conducted by the New York Times, plots the 32 year old venture capitalist up 2 percentage points on 4 term veteran Denham. The exact line is as follows; 47 percent for Harder, 45 percent for Denham and 8 percent still undecided.

Congressional District 10 encompasses parts of Modesto including Turlock, Tracy and Manteca. While the rural nature of the district is home to many conservative farming communities, it is also bordered by more liberal leaning cites such as San Jose and others in the Bay Area. So is the influx in Democratic views slowly creeping into the historically red district?

Although successfully out funding Denham by over $2.5 million, the poll proclaims this isn’t the reason Harder has fastened into the lead. “With his district greatly affected by immigration policy, Mr. Denham led an unsuccessful effort to pressure the House to vote on legislation to protect the young undocumented immigrants known as Dreamers.” Though this unsuccessful attempt may have turned-off voters, Denham’s home site displays “Congress must pass a solution for Dreamers” as one of his top priorities.

Nearly 45 percent of the district and a significant number of those people are dreamers. Furthermore, with the Latino vote in CD 10 shifting in favor Democrats, this is helping them maintain a slight advantage in the vote count. A shift that helped Democrat John Garamendi get elected in 2009 before being redistricted.

Right now it appears as if the 8 percent of the undecided vote might determine who will ride the sails of victory come Election Day. However, it should be noted that this is just one poll and the constituents polled only included a sample size of 500 people. With Election Day still 6 days away, anything can happen.

Sean Brown

Before becoming a writer for the California Globe, Sean served as a Legislative Director in the New York City Council and is an NYU alumnus.
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