A Republican Governor for California? 

The California governor’s primary is little more than 7 months away and the race at this point is scrambled. For the general voter that’s probably not a big deal since they won’t pay attention until the candidate field solidifies and the election is not so far off.

Already on the Democratic side recognized candidates have dropped out, another has joined, and rumors fly about potential additions. Lt. Governor Eleni Kounalakis, former Senate and Assembly leader Toni Atkins and state Treasurer Fiona Ma have said goodbye to the race. Recently, former Assembly majority leader Ian Calderon has joined the fray with other candidates who carry some name recognition that include former U.S. Representative Katie Porter, former Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, businessman Stephen Cloobeck, State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Beccera, and former State Controller Betty Yee.

Rumored candidates are U.S. Senator Alex Padilla, and a pair of well-known and politically active billionaires, Tom Steyer and Rick Caruso.

On the Republican side two candidates set the pace, former Fox TV political commentator Steve Hilton and Riverside County sheriff Chad Bianco, but there is always the potential for additional candidates.

Republicans of course have the problem of rising above the overwhelming advantage Democrats enjoy in voter registration. Yet, with California’s jungle primary format in which all candidates for the office are on the same race card, it is conceivable that a Republican finishes in the top two and secures a spot in the General Election while the Democrats split the vote.

There is even concern among a few Democratic supporters that if most of the Democrats stay in the race and evenly chop up the votes on primary election day, two Republican candidates can top the poll, but that is hard to imagine.

Since both leading Republican candidates are adherents to President Trump their appeal to independent and moderate Democrats will be limited in the state.

We’ll return to the coming gubernatorial election after a quick trip down AI lane. Just for fun I asked ChatGPT artificial intelligence what an ideal Republican candidate for governor of California would look like, one that might overcome the odds.

No surprise, AI recommended a moderate candidate in the mold of former governors Charlie Baker of Massachusetts, Brian Sandavol of Nevada, and California’s Arnold Schwarzenegger. AI laid out a whole campaign plan and said the candidate would emphasize fiscal discipline, public safety, while avoiding partisan grandstanding.

That last recommendation will be hard to pull off in the Trump era.

Any Republican who veers from the expected policy course is quickly labeled a RINO (Republican In Name Only.) Frankly, undermining allies seems a foolish election strategy. Republicans would be better off embracing Ronald Reagan’s “Big Tent” philosophy. As Reagan put it, “The person who agrees with you 80% of the time is a friend and an ally, not a 20% traitor.”

Ironically, AI suggested a slogan for this mythical GOP candidate: “Common Sense for California’s Future.” If memory serves, the “Common Sense” theme was central to Republican George Duekmejian’s successful campaign for governor in the 1980s.

What’s old is new again.

I doubt AI’s suggestions would overcome the Democratic voter advantage in the near term as many voters simply mark their ballots depending on whether the candidate has a D or an R following their name.

Consider Lanhee Chen. The Hoover Institution fellow, and former Mitt Romney advisor, won the primary in the 2022 California Controller’s race by a large margin. The Republican was considered a solid, well-qualified candidate who nearly swept the board in news media endorsements in the General Election. But despite his qualities he was a Republican and he lost to Democrat Malia Cohen by 10-percentage points.

Perhaps the closest potential candidate that meets the AI description is Rick Caruso, now a Democrat but a former Republican. Yet, his profile was not successful in his run for mayor in heavily Democratic Los Angeles.

Politics is cyclical and elections can surprise. This heavily Democratic state still supports the fiscal discipline of Proposition 13 after nearly 50 years while more recently Californians lined up behind the public safety reforms of Proposition 36 despite many Democratic leaders opposed.

Today’s Republican candidates can hope for an upset, but conventional wisdom is that Democrats will divide the vote to allow a Republican to finish in the top two; Democratic voters will then come together to support the Democrat who survives the primary in the General Election.

The focus over the next few months is which Democrat that will be.

Foretelling this gubernatorial election is trying to navigate a small ship on choppy seas. All waited for former vice-president Kamala Harris to announce for governor; but then she didn’t. Candidates as noted above have dropped out and others are expected to drop in.

Former congresswoman Katie Porter undercut her campaign with a rude response to a reporter’s questions and an additional viral clip of Porter demeaning her own staffer. Yet, Porter’s assertion that she doesn’t need Trump voters to win the governorship reflects a reality based on pure numbers and recent political history, a Democrat can command the field in a one-on-one contest with a Republican. But she may not be the Democrat who gets to that one-on-one battle.

Betty Yee dipped into the controversial issue of transgender athletes competing in women sports and advocated discussion of gender-neutral events at the next Olympic Games.

Meanwhile, just as many Democratic donors and endorsers waited to see if Harris would jump into the governor’s race, now they are wondering if Senator Alex Padilla will take the plunge or if heavyweight rich-guys Steyer and Caruso decide to throw their hats in the ring. Even with their wealth they are not sure bets. Democratic voters in California have a history of rejecting the rich candidate in the race for a nomination.

Meanwhile, AI recommendations will not play in this election. And AI doesn’t have a vote—at least not yet!