Baugh Holds Narrow Lead In 47th Congressional Race Over Sen. Min

According to a new WPA Intelligence poll released on Wednesday, former Assemblyman and former Orange County Republican Party Chairman Scott Baugh is currently ahead of Sen. Dave Min (D-Orange County) by a 3 point margin.

The Orange County centric 47th District, currently held by outgoing Congresswoman Katie Porter (D-CA), is considered one of the closest House races in the nation. Porter narrowly defeated former Assemblyman and Baugh in 2022 51.7% to 48.3%. With such a close race, thanks in part to Congressional redistricting, Porter opted to run for the U.S. Senate in 2024 than try and retain her House seat. However, Porter finished a distant third in the Senate primary in March, leading to a wide open lame duck Congressional race.

As for the 47th District, a highly contested primary race had Baugh win with 32.8% result, followed by Min with 25.7%. Democratic lawyer Joanna Weiss and Republican businessman Max Ukropina came in 3rd and 4th with 19% and 15% respectively. This was despite many scandals, such as Baugh being criticized for “wokeism” comments, and Min getting a DUI in Sacramento.

However, since the primary, both candidates have tried to push the narrative that they were ahead in the race. Min constantly pushed fundraising, while both candidates showed their large number of endorsements. But on Wednesday, the first major poll to come out on the race showed that Baugh currently has a narrow lead against Min.

According to the poll, Baugh is leading Min 32% to 29%. When leaning voters are factored in, Baugh is up 42% to Min’s 39%, with 21% undecided. Unlike 2022, Baugh and the GOP are also now leading in several major Demographics, including amongst female voters, Hispanic voters, and independent voters. For Hispanic voters, the lead is higher than expected, with 49% going with Bough over 29% for Min. This is compared to white voters, where the lead for Baugh is only 44% to 39%. Currently, the only major demographic Min is winning is among Democrats.

WPA Intelligence noted in the poll that the 47th District polling took place before Biden’s debate against Trump on June 27th, which means that Baugh’s lead is likely a few points higher due to the national shift against Biden and Democratic candidates as a result of his poor performance and lingering questions of candidate viability.

A 3 point lead

Reaction to the poll on Wednesday and Thursday was one of quiet optimism for the GOP and Baugh after months of a slight surge of buzz for Min.

“Scott Baugh’s surging momentum proves Orange County families are fed up with the disastrous status quo,” said National Republican Congressional Committee Spokesman Ben Petersen. “They want a fighter like Scott who’ll slash taxes and inflation, secure our borders and hold violent criminals accountable — not another spineless puppet of the far-left like Dave Min.”

In addition, Malik Griffin, a Los Angeles polling analyst, told the Globe on Thursday “Orange County has been a battlefield for the last several Congressional elections, and 2024 is proving to be no different. The big thing here is that this district is the last one that hasn’t been flipped back by the GOP since the blue wave of 2018. Republicans slowly chipped their way back. And now with Porter out, they don’t have that incumbency bonus.”

“And yeah, the recent fight over Biden is only pushing more people to the GOP. People not sure with Biden are now not sure with other candidates. And remember, Min has been stepping a bit to the center because of how tight it is. He has refused to say if he supports Biden now, and he’s been going away from Newsom on some state issues.

“But the three points is within the margin of error, and this race is still very close. The fallout from Biden as well as the candidate debates will definitely be major tipping points later this election season. Nonetheless, Min has to be worried at these numbers. Baugh is still very strong.”

More polls on the 47th District race are to come out later this year.