Bianco, Grenell, Dahle and more: What the 2026 GOP Gubernatorial Race Looks Like

Democrats are going to have a lot of options in the Gubernatorial primary next year. Currently they have  Lt. Governor Eleni Kounalakis, former Congresswoman Katie Porter,  State Superintendent Tony Thurmond, Senator Toni Atkins (D-San Diego), Former State Controller Betty Yee, and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa all as official candidates. And it isn’t even complete yet. Developer Rick Caruso and former HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra have been mentioned as possible candidates. And then let’s not forget the elephant in the room – Kamala Harris.

A lot is riding on Harris’ decision, which is to come by the end of the summer. Her run could influence a decision to run for President again in 2028 or 2032. And, if she does join in, many candidates have said that they would be out. Both Porter and Kounalakis have said that they would withdraw in favor of her running, with others likely to follow suit. Harris has a commanding lead in most Democratic polls, with Porter either a distant second or being only a few points above Harris.

With the Democrats set, third parties are also trying their hand. Butch Ware, who was the Green Party vice presidential candidate last year, has a campaign going. But besides him, it is a pretty standard third party “we’re in it to push a singular issue” mentality.

That leaves the GOP. Things have changed a lot since the beginning of the year. There are now five Republicans running, with one having elected office experience. That would be Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, a seasoned sheriff and Trump supporter. But the question remains: who else?

Currently, those interested include former State Senator and 2022 Gubernatorial candidate Brian Dahle, former Olympian and 2021 Gubernatorial candidate Caitlyn Jenner, Fox New Host and former advisor to UK Prime Minister David Cameron Steve Hilton, and Special Presidential Envoy, former Director of National Intelligence and former Ambassador to Germany Ric Grenell. Out of all these, Grenell would have the highest profile, but he has said that he would only run if Harris does.

Actor and Hollywood Ambassador Mel Gibson received a surprising bump of support despite not even officially running thanks to his outspokenness against Governor Newsom and Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass. Early last week he was even the leading GOP candidate in some polls. But his publicist confirmed to the Globe last week that he doesn’t plan to run.

GOP candidates

The GOP in California has been on a bit of a hot streak in recent elections, growing their presence in the state Assembly and Senate for the first time in decades. In addition, Trump brought the best showing of a national Republican in California since George Bush was reelected in 2004. There’s no question that the party is bouncing back to some degree in the golden state. But not having more big names come out as candidates in the 2026 race has been a bit of drag for Republicans and moderates hoping for an alternative to a Democrat winning again.

One possible place for potential candidates are from current and former House members. All have at least somewhat known names and can come in with something of a campaign staff ready to go. But many have declined. Many already in the House don’t want to give up a seat for a potential run because of the thin majority the GOP has in the house right now. And many former members of Congress are weighing other options right now. Former speaker Kevin McCarthy, for example, has already said that he wouldn’t run.

State Senate and Assembly are other areas to potentially pull from, but as seen by Dahle’s 2022 performance, the candidate would need to have quite a base of support and fundraising operation down to have a decent shot. Businessmen and women are other options, with some recent GOP gubernatorial candidates coming from this world. They brought decent funding, but they didn’t exactly have the prior political experience or name recognition. More localized candidates, like Republican big city Mayors, can also work, but none have come forward. The last one shows the most promise, however, as former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer ran during the recall 2021 election and came in a decent third.

And then there are celebrities. Both Ronald Reagan and Arnold Schwarzenegger won before, and more recently, talk show host Larry Elder ended up winning among recall candidates in 2021, but ultimately lost with Newsom managing to avoid the recall. This would bring instant name recognition and popularity, as seen by Gibson’s support bump last week. But many Californians likewise don’t want another celebrity in office. Many GOP supporters don’t want one either, even if they checked all the boxes in terms of position views.

Having Bianco, Grenell and a few other big names for a GOP candidate would still make for a decent showing in the primary, with Bianco and Grenell guaranteeing spirited debates against Harris and Porter. But a few more big names in the primary for the GOP could help shake things up, especially if there is a surprise candidate or two coming in out of nowhere to throw the Democrats off their rhythm.

“The Harris decision will be big new later this year, as will the candidates showing up more and getting into election mode,” explained gubernatorial pollster Guillermo Williams to the Globe on Monday. “The GOP needs a candidate who can steal that thunder from Harris’ decision. Bianco and Grenell made news with updates on their runs. If the GOP can get a few more candidates like that, especially maybe a more moderate one, then we can see some real uncertainty in the race, which is what the Democrats don’t want.”