California High-Speed Rail Says Another $100 Billion Is Needed To Link San Francisco And Los Angeles

California High-Speed Rail Authority (CHSRA) officials said that another $100 billion would be needed to complete the high speed rail network between San Francisco and Los Angeles at a state Senate Transportation Committee hearing on Tuesday, raising the total estimated cost to complete the rail service to at least $135 billion.

Originally estimated to cost $33 billion in 2008, costs of the high speed rail system have ballooned to $98 billion, then were cut to $68 billion, and went back to $113 billion. Completion dates have also been continuously delayed, with the original goal of having the system go from San Francisco to Los Angeles by 2028 to well into the 2030’s for a partial completion. Despite numerous setbacks, and more Californians calling the plans into question, construction on the Bakersfield to Merced leg have continued on for the last several years, with overall support for the program still just above 50% in the state and the federal government pouring billions into the project as well.

Before Tuesday’s meeting, construction estimates were at $128 billion to $135 billion, with estimated partial completion still being in the 2030’s. However, CHRSA CEO Brian Kelly told lawmakers on Tuesday that more is needed. In the short term, the $28 billion allocated to connect Bakersfield with Merced as part of phase one would be falling short of what is needed. The cost is now set between $32 Billion and $35 Billion for an estimated opening between the years 2030 and 2033. Kelly is asking the Governor to prioritize the project and asked lawmakers to send some rainy day funds towards the project to help finish the first leg.

Longer-term, Kelly shocked both Republicans and Democrats by saying that, according to the latest updated draft plan, at least another $100 billion in total would be needed to complete the total linkup between San Francisco and Los Angeles. While a large number had been expected, few expected to balloon to the highest end of recent estimates.

“It’s been tough to fund a project with something that has an expiration date,” said Kelly. “We’re doing it in building blocks. We’re giving you the portions we think we can get done with the funding we have.”

In Sacramento, lawmakers from both parties grilled Kelly over the high new estimates and budget shortfalls.

$135 billion

“Right now, the air is being sucked out of the room funding-wise by this one project. How do we get the public to get on board with something that has this much of a downside to it funding wise?,” asked Senator Kelly Seyarto (R-Murrieta).

“I think the only way you get the public is performing better,” responded Kelly. “And I think the Authority is performing better today than it was. and going forward I think it is the right thing to do for the state and the country. And yes it’s a challenge. And just like when I worked on the Bay Bridge years ago and you’re stuck in the middle of a very tough project, it feels impossible until it’s not. Then you just grind, do the work, you perform well, you deliver. And you’re right, we need to get this middle section done.

“You can use private sector partners when you are in a segment where it’s likely to be profitable. I think that’s hard to do in the Central Valley, but more likely in the Bay Area and Los Angeles regions.”

However, experts pointed out to the Globe on Wednesday that the latest figures only serve to increase the rail plans “boondoggle” reputation, and that the $135 billion estimate and 2030’s partial completion dates are likely not to hold.

“We should start calling this ‘Kelly’s folly’ or ‘Newsom’s folly’, because this is something that was already supposed to be running right now,” explained transportation industry accountant Derrick Clark. “I mean, $135 billion for sure now, and you know that cost is going to go even higher. Just over a year ago we were at $113 billion.

“And this is the absolute worst time to be asking for more money too. California is in a severe budget deficit of $73 billion. Federal is kicking in some, but not nearly enough to stop the state from raising how much they’re paying. This is crazy. Every bad decision they could possibly make they have and we still have 6 years before we reach the closest possible opening date of the Central California leg which, let’s be honest, it will be delayed again.

“Look at how much the state had to maneuver just to get $28 billion for the project. There’s over $100 billion more to go now. Everyone is jaded by this at this point.”

Increased rail estimates are expected to come in later this year.