California Republican Totals For President, Senate Highest Now In Decades

With well over 90% of the vote in as of Friday in both the Presidential election and U.S. Senate election in California, both President elect Donald Trump and Senate candidate Steve Garvey are now projected to have the best totals for any candidate in their respective races in decades.

In the presidential election, Trump currently has 5,542,390 votes compared to Vice President Kamala Harris’ 8,521,018 votes. For Trump, this is good enough for 38.2% of the vote, with little now likely to fluctuate. Harris got below 59%. Both of these total were even better for Republicans than polls showed. An Emerson poll from October 2024 had the race at Harris 61% and Trump 37%.

But with 38.2% of the vote,  Trump has had his best result in the Golden state yet, putting him above his 34% performance in California in 2020 and well above his 31% he got in California against Hillary Clinton in 2016. He also surpasses Mitt Romney’s 37% total he got in the state in 2012, as well as McCain’s 37% in 2008. To find the last time a GOP candidate did better than Trump, one would have to go back to the 2004 election, when George Bush got 44% of the vote in California. This also puts him only 3 points behind Bush’s 2000 election performance in California with 41% of the vote and on par with how well Bob Dole did in 1996, when he also got 38%.

As for Garvey, he currently has 5,769,097 votes to Senate-elect Adam Schiff’s 8,284,026 votes. In total, Garvey has 41.1% of the vote with well over 90% of the vote in, with, like the presidential race, little likely to change. While Schiff won decisively, as expected, Garvey got the consolation prize of doing better than expected. This has made him the most successful Republican Senate candidate in 14 years, dating back to 2010 when former HP CEO Carly Fiorina managed to get just above 42% of the vote against then Senator Barbara Boxer. And before her, this was the best since 1998 when State Treasurer Matt Fong got 43% of the vote, also against Boxer.

The highest in decades

The numbers, as well as other factors like an increasing number of registered GOP voters in the state and tougher on crime laws like Prop 36 passing with flying colors, have now proved that the GOP is now, without a doubt, on the rebound in California following hitting rock-bottom in the 2010’s. The right never fully went away in California, as the state still had a contingent of state and federal lawmakers who were Republican, as well as voters routinely denying things like affirmative action from returning to the state.

But for big ticket candidates, they hadn’t been doing well, as exemplified by Trump’s 31% showing in 2016. But many in the party are now encouraged by the now likely results coming forward, and the GOP on the upswing in larger races.

“Trump was looking at 37% and Garvey’s team was hoping for at least 40%, and both of those were best cases,” explained Stephanie Lewis, a pollster in Southern California, to the Globe on Friday. “Both candidates smashed those projections. And, yeah, House races, state Senate, and Assembly, as well as Gubernatorial. Those all need work still too. But they keep doing better each time now. The GOP in the state has been furiously been reaching out more for higher voter drives and to reach demographics like Asians and Latinos. And look at how well they’re pulling that off. I mean imagine if Trump was facing a non-Californian under similar circumstances – he could be above 40% right now.

“For the Democrats, this is a worrying trend but they aren’t at red alert just yet. They’re still winning by big margins. But for Republicans, this is big growth for such a short amount of time. It will be interesting to see where things go from here. The GOP has momentum going and the voter registration efforts have been huge. They’re seeing more light at the end of the tunnel now.”

Final vote total are due in early December.