Former President Trump speaks from Rancho Palos Verdes on September 13, 2024 (Photo: https://x.com/realDonaldTrump)
Trump Shows Slight Gains in California Despite Still Polling Behind Harris
Trump is currently on track to have the highest vote percentage for a Republican in the state since 2004
By Evan Symon, October 16, 2024 1:20 pm
According to a new Emerson poll released on Wednesday, both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have remained in a 59%-35% lock in California, with Trump going up slightly from previous polls.
Previous polls before Harris became the presumptive nominee on the ticket showed a much closer race in California. While a Democratic victory was never in doubt in California, with Biden always keeping a around a 20+ point lead, polls in June and July began projecting one of the closest races for California between a Democrat and Republican in decades. Biden’s poor debate performance, questions over his health, growing calls for him to drop out of the race, and Trump’s assassination attempt brought a shift in California and nationwide. The last polls with Biden on the ticket in California had him only with 18 and 17 point leads, dropping a point in the polls in California every 5-7 days. Had that rate continued, California could have gone down a shade of blue for the first time since the 90’s.
However, Biden dropped out, leading to Harris as the new nominee. Armed with a California background and keeping the momentum going with a new VP pick, Harris rapidly gained ground on Trump. Nationally, Trump went from several points ahead of Biden, to, on aggregate, three points behind Harris. In California, with Harris at home state advantage, it was even more staggering. By August, Harris was leading Trump 59% to 34%, with Harris up 60% to 34% by September following the second Presidential debate.
In the last month, things took another turn. With the Harris nomination honeymoon over and debate momentum waning, Harris began to fall in most states, including California. The UC Berkeley IGS poll at the beginning of the month was showing Harris to be as low as 57%. However, this evened out on Wednesday, with the Emerson poll showing the latest California numbers at 59% Harris and 35% Trump, with Trump overall slightly improving thanks in part to recent gains with the Latino vote. Overall, Trump is also one point high than he was in early August when Harris was still amidst her early entrance bump in support.
Nationally, Harris is still ahead by a few points over Trump, with that lead tightening in the last month, as reflected by Trump moving up by a point in the state. With it based on projected electoral votes, it is a dead heat, with California still a sure thing for Harris as she is still 24 points ahead in the state.
Trump likely to have best GOP finish in state since 2004
The Emerson poll also included where undecided voters are leaning, putting the total at Harris 61% and Trump 37%. Should those figures hold, Trump is likely to have his best result in the Golden state yet, putting him above his 34% performance in California in 2020 and well above his 31% he got in California against Hillary Clinton in 2016. He could also still surpass Mitt Romney’s 37% total he got in the state in 2012, as well as McCain’s 37% in 2008, meaning Trump’s 2024 final percentage in California is on track to be the highest percentage for a Republican since 2004, when George Bush got 44% of the vote in California.
“Based on how he has been rising, as well as that Coachella visit getting him a surprising amount of goodwill, it’s likely Trump will get 37% or more in California,” explained Stephanie Lewis, a pollster in Southern California, to the Globe on Wednesday. “He is still nowhere close to winning the state. Even a second half October Harris scandal probably wouldn’t jostle Harris out of winning the state. But the numbers are turning around.
“Clinton in 2016, she got everyone excited in California, at least amongst Democrats. 2020, it was a big push for Biden to not let Trump have a second term. 2024, that sentiment is there plus Harris getting her home state. Yet look at the numbers. This is going to be his best year in California yet. And if the Democrats had picked someone besides Harris and she didn’t have that added California support, Trump could have been scratching at 40% in the state right now.
“Trump’s gains amongst Latinos and even amongst black voters is also helping this surge. Nationally, a few months ago, Harris probably was more likely to win, and that is gone now. And in California a few months ago, Trump was on the way to get between his 2016 and 2020 totals here, and now look where it is.”
Final presidential polls for California will likely come in in early November.
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I’m thinking even though California will go for Harris, Trump will get about 40 to 44 percent of the popular vote come Election Day. Anecdotally speaking, I’m actually seeing more Trump/Vance signs and banners pop up in my uber-liberal Sacramento neighborhood than in 2016 and 2020. GOP registration has been trending upwards recently, so I hope that bears fruit come November.
I agree Rick W.. In fact, it could be closer to 50% imo. I think that a lot of people are “Dark MAGA”; they don’t want to have infantile Dems going into their yards and defacing or taking down their signs, so they don’t post them.
Try burning down the house…
Trump Derangement Syndrome is a real threat…
They’ll key your car so most people are dark MAGA, but I see Trump Vance 3 or 4 to 1 in the 805….
Anyone voting for Harris is an idiot. Harris is an idiot. Have you heard her speak off script? What comes out of her mouth is nonsense.
After all the crap Democrats have given to men for being men, if you are a man voting for Harris, you are REALLY an idiot. You are not even a man.. You are a pathetic, weak loser.
It will be interesting to see how the Prop 36 turnout will affect the entire election. It will also be interesting to see if there anymore “October” surprises left to play out that might sway the election. After watching Kamala’s non-answers except for we have all been subjected to a decade of Trump’s rhetoric It doesn’t appear that she has much left in the tank.
Prop 5 is also important because, if passed, all future tax hikes (including property taxes and local bonds) will only require a simple majority vote of 55%. I don’t think most of you would want that.
A “NO” vote on Prop 5 will retain the two-thirds requirement for any tax hikes, including property tax hikes.
Kamala claims to be a “change president” but when asked by The View’s Sunny Hostin what she would do that’s different from Joe Biden, she made it clear there isn’t a thing she would do any different than Biden.
She has flip-flopped on many issues. When she first ran 5 years ago, she said she would ban fracking. Now, she said Fracking is fine. She said in 2019 that she favored “Medicare for All”. Now, she said Obamacare will suffice. 5 years ago, she supported the “Green New Deal”. Now, she favors diverse sources of energy including natural gas, coal, and oil.
She is simply not to be believed.
TRUMP/VANCE 2024!!!
Each time Kamala is interviewed she loses votes. Last night was no exception.
The Congressional races in California are very important for control of the House. President Trump will not win the state, but his visit and campaign will help retain Republican seats and maybe even add one or two. There is a huge latent or dark vote for him that will be the headline on Election Day.
The betting venues (people actually putting their own money down) have it at 60-40 for Trump/Vance. This is a much better indicator than the polls. But keep in mind that these are odds and not how the actually vote count will be. So it is very important for folks to bank their ballots in the mean time. Don’t pay attention to the polls reported by the MSM. Dark MAGA voters are not going to be represented in those polls to a large extent.
Another thing to watch is what Michelle Obama does in the last few weeks up to November 5. She is not actively on the stump like her husband or the Clintons and other high profile Democrats. Michelle is content to work in the background with the volunteers on the ground game. Imo, she is doing this because it looks more and more like Trump/Vance will win and she does not want to be associated too closely with a Harris/Walz loss. If she was confident of a Democrat win, she would be out there showing herself. Michelle is saving her own political capital for a possible run in 2028.
Breaking News: Fox Business just reported that Michelle will join Kamala on the stump in Michigan and Wisconsin today. Are the Dems reading the Globe. Thanks for taking the bait Michelle. Now we know…..the Democrats really ARE desperate.
Beware of Politicians with “Plans” Thoose “Plans” almost always benefit them and their sycophants, not the General Public.