Trump Trounces Gov. Newsom By 10 Points In Latest Hypothetical 2024 Presidential Election Poll

A new Emerson College poll released during the weekend found that former President Donald Trump would defeat all likely Democratic candidates or possible Democratic replacement candidates in the 2024 election, including beating Governor Gavin Newsom in a potential matchup by at least 10 points.

While recent California polls have shown that President Joe Biden is ahead of Trump by between 15-20 points, recent nationwide polls have shown a different story. According to the aggregate site 538, Trump currently has a slim nationwide lead. However, with Biden’s health and age being a major factor, polls have also been conducted showing how Biden would fare against likely Democratic challengers should something happen to President Biden, including both Newsom and Vice President Kamala Harris.

Polls in the past few months have hinted that Newsom would not fare well against Trump. Nationwide polls last month found Newsom at least 4 points behind Trump nationally in a hypothetical race, with swing state polls, such as in Michigan, also having Newsom be well behind. Harris, also from California, had similar polling numbers.

This led to the Emerson poll during the weekend. Conducted between February 13-14, the polls found that, in a Trump-Newsom matchup, Trump would beat Newsom 46% to 36%. While Newsom would fare better than Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, whom Trump is ahead 45% to 33%, he’s doing far worse than both Harris, who is only down 3 points 46% to 43% against Trump, and Biden, where Trump only has a slim 1 point lead 45% to 44%. With third-party candidates factored in, such as Independent Robert Kennedy Jr., Trump’s lead against Biden bumps up slightly, to 40% to 38%.

Compared against previous polls, while Biden and Harris have maintained close polling figures with Trump, Newsom’s sudden downswing has likely put him out of talks for being a possible replacement candidate in 2024. The 10 point gap between Trump and Newsom also correlates with recent polls showing that Newsom’s approval within California itself has hit an all-time low, with 49% of California voters disapproving of him as Governor.

“The Emerson poll today is both surprising and unsurprising,” said Michael Springer, an elections analyst in Washington who focuses on presidential primaries, to the Globe on Monday. “Biden and Harris, yeah, it keeps in line with the race closeness and how everyone has something major going against them right now. For Biden, it’s the age question and for Trump it’s his court cases. But even with all those problems they are both still way ahead of Newsom.

“There’s a lot of different factors going in for this. A part of it is that Newson, ideologically, is farther to the left than Biden. That isolates a lot of people in the center, especially in swing states. And that translates in the polls. It’s not as simple as saying ‘Newsom has screwed up California’ or something like that. There’s a lot more to it than that.”

“For Newsom, this poll should really send signals to him if he is running in 2028. There have been plenty of signs he has. He’s been brushing up on international relations in the past few years, like those visits to China and Israel last year. And he’s been going across the country too getting his name and stances out there. He keeps saying he isn’t interested, but come on, he is. It’s easy to see what he is doing. If he gives the keynote or a major night-capping speech during the DNC this year, then it will be all but confirmed.”

“But 2024 is pretty much done for him right now, even as a replacement. I mean a 10 point gap? If something happens with Biden, going with Newsom would ridiculous. He’d lose and you burn him for 2028, coming in as a previous loser. Based on these number, Harris would be the smart play, but even then it would still be an uphill battle.”

More polls on the 2024 election are due soon.