70% of California Voters Oppose 2024 Presidential Run for Gov. Newsom, New Poll Finds

According to a pair of polls released on Wednesday, Governor Newsom’s approval ratings are still hovering between 40%-55% approval, with 7 in 10 voters saying that he shouldn’t run for President.

In a Quinnipiac University poll released on Wednesday, Governor Gavin Newsom currently holds a 44% approval rating, with 43% disapproving and 13% not giving an opinion. While still very low in terms of overall approval, the numbers are stronger than where he was in a July 2018 Quinnipiac poll that had a 39%-38% approval/disapproval split.

Despite Newsom’s slight rise in popularity, most Californians don’t want to see him as Governor.

And the poll found that 70% of Californians don’t want to see Newsom run for President in 2024. Only 22% were in favor of it. When it’s narrowed down to Democrats only, the majority still don’t want to see Newsom run next year, with 54% against a run and only 35% for a run.

And his approval numbers were also higher than other prominent lawmakers in the state. According to the poll, Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) is at a 37%-44% approval/disapproval rate, with Senator Alex Padilla clocking in at 38%-29% and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) at 33%-48%.  Meanwhile, amongst Californians, President Joe Biden enjoys a 48%-47% approval rating, with Vice President Kamala Harris falling into the negatives with a 42%-48% approval rating.

“A resounding thumbs down from the home team as California voters tell the Governor: if you have designs on the big job beyond Sacramento, we’re not on board,” noted Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy on Wednesday.

Another poll released yesterday from the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies (IGS) found slightly different figures. According to the poll, 55% of voters currently approve of the job Gov. Newsom is doing, with only 39% disapproving. His approval ratings have shot up considerably in the past year as well, with previous IGS polls in February 2022 and August 2022 giving Newsom approval ratings of  48% and 53% respectively.

Also like the Quinnipiac poll, Newsom was found to be the most popular of the more well known Californian lawmakers in the IGS poll. Senator Feinstein had a 37%-43% favorable/unfavorable split, with Senator Padilla faring much better with a 41%-23% rate. Speaker McCarthy was also found to be at 28%-53%. President Biden wasn’t included in the poll, but VP Harris was, coming in with an even 46%-46%. However, an IGS poll from earlier in February found that Biden is currently at 57%-39% approval/disapproval.

A notable question missing from the IGS poll was what voters thought of a 2024 run for Newsom. It was not asked, but Berkeley IGS Director Mark DiCamillo noted that Newsom would likely be going down in popularity once again later this year as he and the state legislature would unlikely find a way to deal with the state’s $22.5 billion deficit.

IGS, Quinnipiac polls show slightly higher approval ratings for Newsom

“The latest Berkeley IGS Poll finds that when state voters are asked their opinions of six high profile California politicians, Governor Gavin Newsom receives the best rating, with 54% viewing him favorably and 41% unfavorable. Newsom job approval rating is similar (55%approve vs. 39% disapprove),” noted DiCamillo. “Yet, clouds loom on the horizon as majorities say they are not confident that he and the legislature will be able to manage the state’s impending budget deficit in a way that will avoid significant cutbacks to programs and services.”

IGS Co-Director G. Cristina Morano added, “The results provide cautious optimism for Newsom as he remains popular even in times of high inflation and inequality across the state. Questions remain, however, about how long his popularity will last as Californians look to the immediate future.”

While coming in with slightly different ratings, it has been shown that, overall, Newsom is still seen favorably by roughly half of all Californians, with outgoing Senator Feinstein having relatively low approval numbers and Senator Padilla generally being somewhat popular. Due to the party-split in the state, Speaker McCarthy currently has the lowest approval rating of the more notable lawmakers. VP Harris is also below the 50% threshold, well below the approval the slight majority of Californians have for President Biden. But it should also be noted that Biden’s approval in California is at odds where he comes in nationally, with the 538 poll aggregate site finding that President Biden’s approval percentage nationally is only 43%, with 52% disapproving of his performance.

“It’s not a matter that things haven’t gone right for Newsom lately,” former lobbyist Harry Schultz told the Globe Thursday. “It’s just nothing has gone wrong. He has handled recent emergencies pretty well after all. But the upcoming budget issue means that he is going to have to announce budget cuts, and those are never popular. He can’t employ past tactics like cutting a relief check to Californians or coming out to give a speech in his bear jacket in front of a scenic vista either. Voters have gotten wise to those by now, and besides, the state has no money.”

“Tellingly, Californians really don’t want him to run for President either. 70% don’t. You usually don’t see that kind of unity on any issue. Compared to the President and Vice President, people would rather have Biden in office again. That is really saying something considering how much each of them has screwed up in the past several years.”

More Californian lawmaker popularity polls are expected to come out in the coming months.