California Governor Gavin Newsom speaking at a press conference outside Napa State Hospital, Napa, CA, Mar 24, 2022. (Photo: Sheila Fitzgerald/Shutterstock)
New Swing State Polls Find Newsom Would Fare Poorly in 2024 Election
‘This has unlikability written all over it’
By Evan Symon, January 11, 2024 12:15 pm
New swing state polls in the last few weeks have revealed that California Governor Gavin Newsom would fare poorly in the 2024 election should he somehow become the Democratic nominee, showing a severe lack of approval just before the state primaries.
Before the new polls came out in the new year, the popularity of President Joe Biden, Governor Newsom, and Republican frontrunner Donald Trump all seemed in flux. Biden, who once had a nationwide approval rating of 55% in February 2021, fell to new approval lows in November 2023 of under 38%. In California, Newsom, who had a 63% approval rating in 2020, fell to an all-time low of 44% approval in November 2023, for the first time, even having more Californians disapproving of him rather than approving. And Trump, since leaving office in 2021, has had a nearly flatline of 40% favorability, with his score jumping up recently to 43% nationwide.
In recent months, nationwide polls between Trump and Biden have been all over the place, with outlets showing both candidates ahead in different polls. While the two are currently neck to neck in aggregate national polls, Trump shows a slight lead in most swing states. Even in heavily blue California, Biden’s star has fallen a bit in polls. While still at a commanding lead in the Golden state, many polls have shown Biden to barely keeping a double digit point lead over Trump.
With election worries surrounding Biden, as well as issues with his age and health, replacement candidates have been talked about often, with none so prominent as Governor Newsom. While the California Governor has said multiple times that he supports Biden-Harris in 2024 and has no wish to run this year, he has demonstrated that he also really wants a shot at the White House.
Newsom has been a part of major national and international events in recent years to boost his national profile and pad his international relations bona fides, has stepped up in fundraising, and even had highly unusual debate against Florida Governor and Republican presidential candidate Ron DeSantis, despite not running this year.
As such, he has continued to be included in the discussion of the 2024 election, if anything as an emergency candidate should something happen to President Biden this year. This has included being a part of polls. However, the polls has shown that he would not fare well in such an election against Trump, especially in critical swing states.
Newsom below Trump in hypothetical races in key swing states
This lead to several polls coming out in the last few weeks showing how Newsom would not favor well against Trump in a one on one election. According to a Detroit News poll this week, Trump is leading Biden in Michigan 47% to 39%, with Trump also leading Newsom in a slightly closer 45%-40% result. This follows the trend of other swing states in recent months, such as a Wisconsin poll finding that both Vice President Harris and Newsom are behind Trump by a few points. Nationally, Newsom is faring worse to Trump than Biden is, with a YouGov poll showing that Newsom is behind Trump by 4 points, 45% to 41%.
Election experts told the Globe that Trump being more popular than Newsom shouldn’t be surprising.
“Everyone has been pointing for Newsom to be the candidate to beat in four years, but by these polls that came out, he is still struggling,” said Michael Springer, an elections analyst in Washington who focuses on presidential primaries, to the Globe on Thursday. “There was that poll in California less than a year ago that found that, what, 70% of Californians don’t want Newsom to run in 2024? And then he pulled that debate stunt while not running? This has unlikability written all over it. And that’s not even getting into his scandals. To get past things like that, you need strong early numbers, and this just isn’t it. He’s losing in Michigan to Trump, and as you recall in 2016, Michigan was a key state for the GOP win.”
“Newsom should not ignore these polls. He can laugh it off, say again he isn’t running all he wants, what he usually does. But he needs to pay attention to how people view him across the country. It isn’t so great, and in some places, he is doing worse than Biden. If he wants to beat a Republican in 2028, or even defeat Harris, Buttigieg or whoever else runs for the Democrats next election, he needs to be competitive in swing states. Right now, he is struggling. This Michigan poll confirms that.”
More hypothetical 2024 polls with Newsom as an option are expected to come out later this year.
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November 29, 2022 -
So far, so good. And not a surprise. But keep spreading the word about Gov Gavin and his very special talent for spinning straw into…. well, let’s just say it’s NOT gold. Definitely not gold. And to add insult to injury he is insulting, obnoxious, and annoying while he does it.
So true, Showandtell. We need to use every opportunity we have to broadcast the incompetency of Gavin Newsom and the dismay (disgust) we feel about how he and CA’s illliberal legislators have driven CA into the ground.
I’m very grateful to Katie Grimes and the Globe staff for working so hard to do this!
Hair-gel Hitler Newsom would fair poorly according to the polls but then so did Biden in 2020 and that didn’t stop the deep-state from installing him with voter fraud and rigged voting machines?
A) He’s from California, and the majority of the rest of the country thinks that we’re all “flakes & fruits” and cannot stand us, even though they long for our mild climate
B) He RADIATES sliminess, and most people have experience with slimy salesmen, and Newsom comes across as a slick, used-car slimewad salesman
C) His recent “debate” with DeSantis was useful in providing a platform to SHOW those that were watching that A) and B) above are not just my observations….
Everyone seems to be waiting for Biden’s other shoe to drop.
I see no good democrat alternative to Newsom, especially having the rank to pal around with Bubba Clinton in Mexico where the latter is hiding from the Epstein fall out. (One of many tone-deaf missteps, I might add). Most democrats have been taught to wait until they are asked. Thus, the brashness of Newsom, a product of “high speed, low drag” mostly unopposed legislation is a sure fit. (He hopes).
Newsom’s negatives are vast, including never facing a hostile press or serious candidate, and the questionable ability to create a national power base of “California Lite” loyalists. He has never appointed anyone without examining their box checking score. (Except his top staff – whiter than rice.)
His positives are his youth (in presidential terms), his hair, and is “laws be damned” attitude toward what he doesn’t like.
I suspect his good looks are an asset that swoons women into wanting immediate abortions based on his “come one, come all” eagerness to abort and change your sex all in one hour. Free! Who can top that!
Lastly, he is blind, naive, and tone deaf to the importance of posing and how he appears to critics on the national stage.