Demographic and Societal Shifts Are Reshaping Arizona’s Inner City Schools

The Kyrene School District in Tempe, Arizona, is set to close or repurpose nine schools, a decision that has sparked outrage among parents and students. However, as ABC15 Data Analyst Garrett Archer’s recent work reveals, this move is not an isolated incident, but part of a broader demographic shift that is reshaping the state’s educational landscape.

Archer’s data highlights a stark disparity: inner-city school districts are losing thousands of students, while outer-suburban districts are experiencing gains of thousands. This trend is not merely a result of educational policy changes but reflects more profound societal shifts.

In a segment for ABC15 aired September 18^th, Archer explained,

“There could be a multitude of reasons why a district chooses to close a school, budget constraints or building upkeep, for example. But another big reason is there are simply fewer kids needing to be educated. 

Now, Arizona is a growing state, so we are not quite there yet, but the growth rate of our minor population is anemic in 20 years. Arizona’s total population grew by 31 percent, almost 2 million people. In that same time, though, our under-20 population has only grown by 9 percent, 161,000 kids. Another way to look at it, 20 years ago, almost one of every three Arizonan was under 20. Today that share has shrunk to under one in four, a drop of almost five points. 

Some of our counties are seeing double-digit declines in the share of Arizonans needing an education. Northern counties are losing a bigger share of minors, double-digit declines in the tribal counties of Apache and Navajo and larger single-digit drops in the state’s southern, southeastern counties as well.

Maricopa’s share of people under 20 has fallen 4 points, and some school districts feel the weight of this more than others. Several Phoenix elementary districts, Cartwright, Alhambra, Creighton, and Isaac they’re all located in regions with thousands of fewer children.

In Cartwright’s case for example, it’s about 5,000 fewer kids since 2009. Tempe School District is also down by about 1,600. Those are some of the school districts most at risk of school closures due to shrinking populations.”

Archer noted, though, that while more urban areas are losing student populations, in more suburban areas, the number of students has exploded. “At the other end, though, huge gains for several suburban Unified districts. There are 7,600 more kids living in Florence Unified than there were in 2009. A similar number for Queen Creek. Other districts seeing big jumps in their minor populations are Dysart, and Peoria Unified, and Litchfield Elementary.”

While some attribute the decline to Empowerment Scholarship Account (ESA) grants and the rise of homeschooling, the underlying causes are more complex.

Self deportation–both with illegal immigrants leaving the country entirely or where families move out of an area due to economic or social reasons; and, political migration–where people relocate based on their political alignment, are significant contributors.

The exodus of illegal immigrants, prompted by stringent immigration enforcement, has also influenced these demographic shifts, given that the largest collapses of student population geographically align with Arizona’s largest illegal immigrant communities.

Based on the number of English Language Learners (ELLs)—students requiring language support, who often come from immigrant families (including illegal immigrants)—serves as a reliable proxy for hard numbers on illegal immigration by various school districts. School Districts in Maricopa County host approximately 70 percent of the state’s ELLs, mirroring the county’s estimated 190,000 illegal immigrant residents.

Recent data from the Department of Homeland Security indicates that approximately 1.6 million illegal immigrants have left the U.S., with a notable impact on states like Arizona. Per Pew Research, this exodus is part of a broader trend, with the unauthorized immigrant population in the U.S. reaching a record 14 million in 2023, but subsequently declining due to enforcement measures.

Exact figures for the number of illegal immigrants who have left Arizona specifically since January 1, 2025, are not directly reported in official sources, as U.S. government data lags significantly and primarily tracks national trends, border apprehensions, and interior deportations rather than state-level net outflows.

However, available data on deportations (formal removals by ICE), voluntary departures (self-deportations), and overall population declines provide a basis for estimation. Arizona, as a prominent border state, accounts for a disproportionate share of enforcement actions due to its proximity to the U.S.–Mexico border.

Key trends indicate a significant reduction in the unauthorized immigrant population nationwide, driven by heightened enforcement under the Trump administration, including executive orders, ad campaigns encouraging self-deportation, and regional operations like “Operation Homecoming.”

At a peak of 560,000 in 2007, Arizona’s unauthorized population stood at approximately 300,000 in 2023 and early 2025 data suggests continued declines.

Based on national data prorated to Arizona’s share of enforcement activities (historically 15-20 percent of southwest border encounters and interior removals), an estimated 30,000 to 40,000 illegal immigrants have left Arizona since January 2025. This includes:

• Formal deportations (removals): Approximately 20,000–25,000.
• Self-deportations (voluntary departures): Approximately 10,000–15,000.

This estimate aligns with Arizona’s 19.1 percent share of nationwide border encounters and its role in ICE’s Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO), which prioritize interior enforcement in high-impact states like Arizona. The range accounts for uncertainties in self-deportation tracking and potential underreporting due to survey response rates among immigrants during enforcement periods.

While correlation doesn’t equal causation, there is a definitive political character to this divide as well, with the areas most impacted and experiencing the most loss of student population invariably being those reportedly carried by former Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 Presidential election. The political overlay can also be easily used as a proxy for the tendency to support abortion.

Student Population Decline by School District Political Affiliation:

1Source: https://maricopa.maps.arcgis.com/

Student Population Increase by School District Political Affiliation:

1Source: https://maricopa.maps.arcgis.com/

As reported by multiple outlets, data from the U.S. Census show that the percentage of millennial women who have never had children is at a record high, the highest since 1960, putting the nationwide fertility rate at 1.8 children per woman, well below the minimum population replacement rate of 2.1. 

According to a survey from MassMutual cited by CBS News in 2024, 23 percent of millennials and Gen Z adults who do not have children have said they don’t intend to—ever, mainly due to “financial reasons.” Equally troubling is the 31 percent of Millennials and Gen Z who refuse to become parents “attribute this to the social and political world their children would inherit,” per Mass Mutual.

These massive discrepancies mean fewer children are entering the school system, putting pressure on districts to consolidate and redirect their already diminishing resources. Districts in more Democrat-aligned areas are clearly the hardest hit by these factors as order in the classroom, security, and academic performance have suffered under left-leaning policies.

In more conservative areas, school boards are being held accountable to parents for spending profligately on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) programs, controversial gender-ideology policies, and an increased emphasis on medicating behavioral and psychological issues, and parents appear to be ‘voting with their feet.’

The Kyrene School District’s plight in particular is a warning sign for Arizona. As families “vote with their feet,” moving to areas that better reflect their political and social preferences, and as immigration patterns shift due to enforcement, the educational infrastructure must adapt. The question is not if, but when, these population problems will fully manifest across the state, demanding proactive planning and policy responses–now.