Emerson Polling Reports ‘Nevada Governor’s Race In a Dead Heat,’ But Survey Under-Samples Independents by 10 Percent

A new Emerson College Polling survey of the Nevada 2026 election for Governor finds incumbent Republican Joe Lombardo and Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford tied: 41 percent support each candidate and 18 percent are undecided. Governor Lombardo holds a 34 percent job approval rating, and 36 percent disapproval; 30 percent are neutral or have no opinion on the Governor, according to their survey.

“With less than a year until Election Day, the first Emerson College poll of Nevada’s governor’s race finds Governor Lombardo in a dead heat with the state’s Attorney General, Aaron Ford,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Lombardo holds an eight-point lead among independents, though 40% remain undecided. Ford’s strengths are among Hispanic voters, who back him by 16 points, and women, who break for the Attorney General by five points.”

However, recent Nevada Secretary of State data updated earlier this month shows that Nonpartisans (Independents) dominate voter registration, with Republicans leading Democrats by one percentage point.

Of the 2,129,632 active registered voters in Nevada:

• 787,815 are Nonpartisan (36.99%);
• 601,572 are Republicans (28.25%);
• 598,393 are Democrats (28.10%);
• 91,343 are members of the Independent American Party (4.29%);
• 15,336 are members of the Libertarian Party of Nevada (0.72%); and
• 35,173 are members of other minor political parties (1.65%).

Looking deeper into the polling data of 800 repondents reveals that Emerson over-sampled Democrats by nearly 10 percent, Republicans by seven percent, and under-sampled Independents by 10 percent. In Nevada, Independents have dominated voter registration for over a year and Republicans have, on average, outpaced Democrats in voter registration in monthly updates and have consistently led Democrats in total registration numbers for over a year, as well. In September, statewide registrations decreased for all registered parties, however, the Democratic Party’s active registered voters statewide had the largest decrease of 12,475 (-2.04%).

Overall in Nevada, since January 2025, the Democratic Party has lost 19,959 voters, Republicans have lost 16,967 voters, and Independents have surged adding 91,496 voters.

As reported by The Globe, “between the elections of 2020 and 2024, Democrats lost 2.1 million voters compared to Republicans’ gain of  2.4 million voters. In swing states like Nevada and North Carolina, Democrats are on life support as registration advantages have plunged. Representing a cross-section of age groups and demographics, voters have resoundingly rejected the rhetoric and policies espoused by the Biden administration and the Democrat party at large.”

A recent article in the NY Times summarized a study that found Democrats are hemorrhaging voters, so much so that in four short years during the Biden administration, Republicans erased registration advantages in all 30 states that track voter registration by party, including the key swing states of Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

“That four-year swing toward the Republicans adds up to 4.5 million voters, a deep political hole that could take years for Democrats to climb out from,” the Times reports. The Times analysis found that “fewer and fewer Americans are choosing to be Democrats,” for the first time since 2018.

Emerson correctly found that the economy and housing affordability remain top issues in the Silver State, which has Democrats scrambling to change their messaging on abortion rights, “climate change”, and most recently, the Epstein files. Talking points around the Epstein files have dropped faster than Joe Biden walking up the stairs of Air Force One. Democrats have also been warned that their brand has become toxic to “normie” voters and have been advised to “not sound crazy.”

Thus far, Attorney General Aaron Ford has centered his campaign around affordability and suing the Trump administration approximately three dozen times. Ford’s office has not responded to our request as to what these lawsuits have cost Nevada taxpayers. Another local news outlet has been told by the AG’s office that they can expect the estimate in January 2026.

Governor Lombardo warned that if Democrats retain power of the legislature and regain power of the executive branch in 2026, Nevadans risks higher taxes, fewer jobs, men competing in women’s sports, and increased crime. Lombardo claims he is the backstop against the “woke California agenda.”

Despite the survey’s lopsided data, Nevada has always been a swing state with elections decided by mere percentages. Lombardo beat former Democratic Governor Steve Sisolak by 1.9 percent during a general election year. However, with Voter ID on the ballot next November in a midterm election, Republicans will likely be inspired to cast a ballot, but Governor Lombardo will have to close with Independents to guarantee his reelection.