Gov. Newsom’s Proposition 1 Remains At 50%-50% Split

A number of new votes tallied on Wednesday by the California Secretary of State revealed that Proposition 1 remained largely a tie, with 1,958,171 for the proposition and 1,936,817 against it.

Proposition 1, if passed, would expand the state’s mental health infrastructure on a $6.4 billion bond. Propped up by Governor Newsom last year and into 2024, Prop 1 would not only enact the new bond that would create housing for veterans and build 10,000 beds for those undergoing mental health and addiction treatment, but it would also redirect funding from a previous proposition. The redirected funding, around $4 billion comes from Proposition 63, also known as the Mental Health Services Act. Passed by a narrow margin of 53%-47% in 2004, Prop 63 instituted a millionaire’s tax, or  a surcharge of 1 percent on the portion of a taxpayer’s taxable income that exceeded $1 million, that went into mental health services. Under Prop 1, new requirements on spending would be put in, which would redirect funding to housing and treatment for the most severely affected people with mental and addiction issues.

Only a few months ago, Proposition 1 seemed like it was going to pass. Polls showed it to be slightly up at the beginning of the year. But it soon began to trend downward as a growing number of people and groups found problems with it. In particular, the ACLU, the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, the League of Women Voters of California and Mental Health America in California found that Prop 1 would likely cost taxpayers $12 billion over the next three years as it is paid off and would siphon money from needed homeless projects.

“If Prop 1 passes, there goes about a quarter of our funding,” said Xavier Blanco, who helps run an outreach service for homeless men in Southern California. “You know, we go out, make sure they have a safe place to sleep, hook them up with a job, then try and get them a permanent apartment or some other place to start building their life again. Prop 1 passes and that is a lot less people we can help out. This is why so many people are on the same side here. You’d be helping one situation out a little by making another so much more worse.”

Alarmed, Newsom began a huge ad blitz across the state. Ads on TV, radio, and the internet were everywhere, with Newsom himself highlighting the fact that it would benefit the housing of veterans while also not mentioning any numbers whatsoever.

CALIFORNIA: TODAY IS ELECTION DAY!

There’s an important initiative on the ballot — Proposition 1.

It’ll fix our broken mental health system and provide those living on our streets & suffering from substance abuse the care they need.

Vote YES on Prop 1. pic.twitter.com/IJvbi8IKPc

— Gavin Newsom (@GavinNewsom) March 5, 2024

However, a growing red wave of voters was largely keeping up with any gains Newsom saw. Spurred by the Republican Primary, the Senate Primary, and the worry that a “yes” vote on Prop 1 was a vote for Newsom in the future, polls in the last few weeks showed that voters were split.

Initial results overnight showed that the “yes” votes were up by .5%. However, updates on Wednesday showed that the vote was now much closer, with less than 25,000 votes separating the two with only 51% of votes counted.

As the San Francisco Chronicle put it, Newsom should have never left it to chance. As Slate put it, Republicans came out in droves. But so did many California voters worried about the financial implications.

“Unfortunately for Newsom and other supporters of Prop 1, a lot of GOP and independent voters came out on Tuesday,” explained Stephanie Lewis, a pollster in Southern California, to the Globe on Wednesday. “We had some after-polling come in, and all those big turn outs for Garvey, for the House candidates, the GOP primary? Well, they translated to a lot more than expected votes against Prop 1. That’s why it is so close right now. It may not pass now.”

Election results are expected to trickle in in the coming weeks, with a pass or fail threshold not likely to be reached soon due to the closeness of the votes.