Harris Takes Lead in 2026 Gubernatorial Race in Latest Poll

In a new Inside California Politics/Emerson College poll released Thursday, former Vice President Kamala Harris (D) jumped back up into the lead amongst hypothetical candidates with 31% of respondents in support, while former Congresswoman Katie Porter (D) led a poll with current declared candidates with only 12% support.

According to the poll, which questioned 1,000 registered voters last week, Harris was by far the top candidate under the hypothetical candidate question, leading with 31.2%. The next closest was Porter with 7.7%, followed by Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco (R) with 4.2%, and Lt. Governor Eleni Kounalakis (D) with 2%. Others coming in with at least 1.5% of support included former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D) with 1.9%, Construction manager Kyle Langford (R) with 1.9%, former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra (D) with 1.8%. Most tellingly, the selection of ‘Undecided’ ended up with 38.9%, while ‘Someone Else’ garnered 3.3%.

However, when Harris wasn’t included as an option, things shifted dramatically, with the race between Democratic candidates turning into a free-for-all. Porter led this poll, but with only 12.4% support. Following her was Villaraigosa with 4.9%, Bianco with 4.3%, Becerra with 3%, and Kounalakis with 2.8%. Rounding off the candidates with at least 2% were former State Controller Betty Yee (D) with 2.6% and former state Senator Toni Atkins (D) with 2%. Without Harris as a candidate, the undecided vote shot up to 54.1% of the vote, with ‘Someone Else’ coming up with 5%.

The overall choice of Harris was also polarizing, as another question asking if she should run in 2026 was split, with 49.6% saying they wanted her to run, and 50.4% saying no to a Harris run.

Executive Director of Emerson College Polling Spencer Kimball said on Thursday that Harris entering the race would dramatically upend not only primary, but Democratic support as well.

“How competitive the 2026 gubernatorial primary in California is depends on whether Harris runs. Other candidacies, like Katie Porter’s, are contingent on whether the former vice president enters the race,” explained Kimball. “Harris garners 49% of Democrats, while Porter gets 13%. Without Harris in the race, Porter’s support among Democrats rises to 21%, which would make her an early frontrunner in a crowded field. Voters are split on whether or not Harris should run for Governor: 50% say the former Vice President should not run, and 50% think she should.”

Harris, Porter lead in polling

Previous polls showed a growing lead for Harris and Porter. There was the September 2024 USC poll, which found Villaraigosa to be the leader of the declared candidate poll and Porter leading the speculative candidate poll. According to the declared candidate poll, Villaraigosa led with 7.6% in favor of him becoming Governor. Kounalakis and Yee tied for second with 4.5%. The speculative poll showed that the leader, by a wide margin, was Porter, with 14%. The next closest candidate, former state Senator Brian Dahle (R), garnered only 5.3%. Meanwhile, an Emerson poll in February of just Democratic residents showed Harris on top with 57% of the poll, with Porter at only 9% and Kounalakis and Villaraigosa tied with 4% for third place.

However, Porter’s announcement that she would be running for Governor last month, as well as the brief rise of support for actor Mel Gibson (R) buried Harris somewhat in March. According to the Lost Coast Outpost poll, Porter was ahead with 25% of the vote, followed by Harris with 20%, Gibson with 12% and Bianco with 11%. But with Porter’s announcement boost waning, Gibson saying that he wouldn’t run, and Harris’ speculative run staying in the news, Harris bounced back this month. For Harris, though, the latest poll saw her support not nearly as high as it was in February. A Politico/UC Berkeley Citrin Center poll conducted earlier this week confirmed that her support is going down, especially amongst key demographics including independent voters and Latino voters.

But it wasn’t just Harris’ shifting support and popularity playing havoc in the polls. Republican and conservative voters have largely eschewed selecting a candidate this early on, with the only major candidate with prior elected experience, Bianco, coming in third in both polls. About 24% of voters in California are registered Republicans, with the number growing in recent years. A large number of unregistered GOP voters and right leaning independents put this solid Republican voting bloc at an even higher percentage, as seen by Donald Trump’s 38.3% California showing in November. Despite this, only a fraction of GOP supporters named a candidate to support, with most opting to say that they didn’t know.

Porter has said that she will drop out of the race should Harris run, meaning that one of them will likely get enough votes to move on in the June 2026 primary. As for the other candidates, either Democrats need to risk splitting the ticket to get another candidate in there, or Republicans will need to unite behind either Bianco or another candidate. Currently there are multiple speculative Republican candidates, including former Director of National Intelligence and former Ambassador to Germany Ric Grenell (R), who has shown interest in a run but only if Harris joins in the race.

The new Emerson College poll made it clear though – Harris’ decision to run is going to dramatically shift this race one way or the other.